WIND CHILL ADVISORY

Good Evening.

If you weren't aware of it, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Chill Advisory for all counties in the blog until 11 AM tomorrow morning.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 25 BELOW. LOWEST READINGS EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING.

 * LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
   SHORELINE.

IMPACTS...

 * FROSTBITE TIMES OF 30 MINUTES OR LESS.

 * SNOW COVERED OR ICY ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
   MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * DRESS WARMLY... MAKING SURE THAT ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED.

Make sure that you take precautions to avoid frostbite.  If you live here, you know the drill.

More to come...

Old Man Winter...Leave Us Alone!!!

Good Morning!

Depending on where you are in the state, you have some sun right now.  Don't expect it to last though.  You'll see my thoughts on the snow this weekend soon enough.  Let's take a look and see what we have going on in the area right now.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW MISCHIEF:  That pretty much sums up what is going on right now, and we have plenty of pain to go around.  Have a look at this visible satellite image:

You see the feathery clouds downwind (on our side) of Lake Michigan?  Those are your lake effect snow makers.  The snow rotates through the area in bands from those clouds.  It's a miniature weather system, with the cold air blowing over the warmer water (relative to the air) of Lake Michigan.  Now that the ice pack has receded some, the lake effect can carry inland better.  The snow box is getting pounded right now, with heavy snow and high winds.  Have a look at this graphic:

I know this is a bit confusing, but as you can see, there are advisories and warnings aplenty in this part of the world.  After we're done with this, then the pain really sets in...

BACK IN THE DEEP FREEZE:  Here's a look at another graphic.  If for some reason you don't feel it, have a look at the forecast temperatures as you head out tomorrow:

NAM Temperature Forecast 7 AM Friday 2/28/14

You'll want to get up a bit earlier to warm up the car and such, and take your precautions to avoid pipes bursting.  It will be THAT cold for awhile yet.  This frigid stuff at night will stay around into next week, then we don't see any real warming until next Thursday at the soonest.  Average high in Jackson this time of year is 39.  You can forget about even seeing the freezing mark for the next several days.  Plenty of wind to whip the snow around and keep it brutally cold out there.

WEEKEND STORM:  Yes - we'll get some snow.  Now, beyond that it gets tricky.  There's still some spread in the model solutions - in other words, there's no single scenario that looks like a best bet for the weekend yet.  We still have a little time, but you need to get prepared.  Here's what I'm seeing:

We see snow developing in a window from 6 AM to 1 PM Saturday.  We'll pick up a couple or three inches of snow during this first snow.  There should be a break in the action between say, 8 PM and 1 AM Sunday morning.  Problem: there's a bit of disagreement within the forecast models about whether it actually plays out like that.  We could see snow straight through into Sunday.  I will also say that Sunday looks to be the better day of the weekend for substantial snow.  Before it's all done I'm thinking we see 3-5" of new snow in this area, and it doesn't go anywhere either.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Just a continuation of this long, hard winter.  More cold, more snow.  Computer models say we break freezing next Thursday - don't hold your breath.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Winter Weather Advisory through 3 PM, periods of clouds and sun, clouds will bring lake-effect snow, intense at times, lowering visibility.  High 10.  Wind NNW 10-20 MPH will keep wind chills as much as -20.

Tonight - Clearing skies and bitter cold.  Lows down to -8, wind chills down to -20.  Wind turning SE and diminishing to 5-10 MPH.

Friday - Increasingly cloudy continued cold, some snow possible in the afternoon.  High 16, wind chills in the single digits.  Wind becoming NW 5-10 MPH.  Wind chills near zero.

Friday night - Cloudy, more substantial snow developing pre-dawn Saturday, lows hold near 14.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Saturday - cloudy, snowy during the day, possibly a break in the afternoon.  Warmer, high 27.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.

Not So Light Snow Tonight & Tomorrow

Good Morning!

I'm sitting here looking at the forecast that I wrote maybe seven hours ago, and it has already changed!  I said that an upper impulse would work through with some flurries or light snow.  Latest forecast data has intensified the system coming through here tonight such that a Winter Weather Advisory has now been posted by the National Weather Service...Calhoun, Ingham, Eaton, Clinton, Jackson - you're in play for this one.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... BLOWING SNOW AND BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
   HIGHEST AMOUNTS WEST OF US-131.

 * WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW.

 * WIND CHILL READINGS TO 20 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
   MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
   POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW
   AND BLOWING SNOW.

 * SNOW COVERED TO ICY ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW.

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.

I warned you that Old Man Winter wasn't happy!  Based on this, clearly the forecast needs to be changed.

Here's the revised look:

Today - becoming cloudy, snow developing this afternoon from west to east, high 9.  Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH by nightfall.  Wind chills near or below zero.

Tonight - snow, intense at times, accumulations 2-4 inches total by late Thursday morning, heavier as you move west.  Low 0.  Wind chills as low as -20.  Wind turning more southerly and increasing to 15-25 MPH will cause blowing snow and travel issues.

Thursday - snow tapering off around lunch time, continued bitterly cold.  High 9.  Wind SW 7-14 MPH, wind chills as low as -10.

I'll have more for you later this morning!

Another Taste Of Cold Shoulder...

Good Evening!

As we wind down with some clouds and a few flurries, you;ll want to settle in and get the extra blankets out, because we spend some time in the deep freeze for the next day or so!  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have going on...

MORE NUMBING COLD:  The next 36-48 hours will see bitterly cold readings in Michigan, and our area is no exception.  Temperatures will be in the single digits for lows in plenty of places tonight and tomorrow night, with daytime highs struggling to claw into the teens.  In fact, looking ahead the next several days, when average temperatures are typically in the mid to upper 30's, good luck seeing anything higher than the mid 20's.  The really depressing part of it all?  The cold weather looks like it will hang on into almost Mid-March.  It will be around at least through part of the first week of March unless something radically changes in the next few days.  The models have our lows in single digits and even below zero, with the warmest readings at night right around 14 degrees!  Now that's cold!

A TOUCH OF SNOW...UNTIL THE WEEKEND:  Northwest winds will bring some lake effect snow back to the snow box, even with the cold air.  Additionally, an upper impulse may bring some flurries or even light snow on Thursday.  I don't really see us getting a lot of snow right now, it's just so cold, and there's not really a dynamic system to upset the atmosphere enough for heavy duty snow.  That will be this weekend, when we look at a storm coming out of the Plains.  I don't know how much snow or the exact timing yet, still too early.  It could be as soon as Saturday PM, or as late as Sunday PM and perhaps into Monday.  I'll have a better idea of what the timing of that will be, along with snow totals here tomorrow I think.

ANY WARMING ON THE WAY?:  Regrettably, no.  Temperatures look to run between 10-17 degrees below normal right through the end of the month, and into March.  I hope that this changes, but evidence to the contrary is in short supply right now.

Here's the forecast:

I'll have a complete look at the extended forecast and a clearer picture (I hope) on the snow threat for the weekend.  Have a great night!  Blessings.

Just The Forecast...

In a hurry - here it is.

Today - variably cloudy, some flurries or even light snow in hit or miss fashion, cold.  High 21.  Wind WSW increasing to 6-12 MPH.

Tonight - cloudy, maybe a flurry, very cold, lows near 0.  Wind WSW 5-10 MPH will put wind chills down near -10.

Wednesday - Some clearing, continued very cold, high 9.  Wind WSW 5-10, wind chills stay at or below zero.

Thursday - Some sunshine, continued frigid high 10.

Have a great day!  Blessings.

So Much For Thawing Out...

Good Afternoon!

Now that I have gotten through church, an afternoon grocery hunt, and other things, it's time for me to take a look at some fresh data.  It's been a beautiful sunny day in south central Michigan, and in the other parts of Michigan, some clouds, especially north.  Let’s take a deeper dive and see what we have in store:

A QUIETER PATTERN: We have northwesterly flow coming in from Canada with a polar high set to occupy these parts for the middle and tail end of the week.  The question I had earlier this morning when I looked briefly at data, was how much moisture would the couple of disturbances be able to tap as they move this way?  The answer to that question appears to be not much.  So systems that initially could bring some snow to Michigan look like they just get sucked dry between the Dakotas and here.  I’ll have to keep the mention of a few flurries or perhaps some lake effect snow in the forecast, but at the moment I don’t see anything that would cause any major headaches.

MORE FRIGID TEMPERATURES:  Here’s a look at the NAM computer model temperature forecast at 7 AM on Wednesday morning. 

You can see all of the purplish-pink shading, which corresponds to readings in the -5 to 15 degree range.  Factor in a little wind and we’re talking about some serious cold.  We haven’t seen readings like this in a few days.  In fact, the latest model runs have trended almost 10 degrees cooler!  Average high in this part of the world is around 38 degrees, and the warmest reading that I’m seeing in guidance right now is 25 next Saturday.

DOWN THE LINE A BIT: There’s not a whole lot of change forthcoming, if you believe the computer models.  We see cold Canadian high pressure sit over this part of the world, with some upper waves and small disturbances rotating through.  I’m not very enthusiastic about any widespread accumulating snow of any significance outside of some lake effect that might accumulate in the snow box.  The look is just too dry right now.  Here’s what the Weather Prediction Center says about the next five days:

As you can see, about two-tenths of an inch in the five days, confined to the downwind side of the lake, coming out to the 131 corridor, maybe as far east as I-69.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Have a wonderful evening!  Blessings!