Old Man Winter...Leave Us Alone!!!

Good Morning!

Depending on where you are in the state, you have some sun right now.  Don't expect it to last though.  You'll see my thoughts on the snow this weekend soon enough.  Let's take a look and see what we have going on in the area right now.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW MISCHIEF:  That pretty much sums up what is going on right now, and we have plenty of pain to go around.  Have a look at this visible satellite image:

You see the feathery clouds downwind (on our side) of Lake Michigan?  Those are your lake effect snow makers.  The snow rotates through the area in bands from those clouds.  It's a miniature weather system, with the cold air blowing over the warmer water (relative to the air) of Lake Michigan.  Now that the ice pack has receded some, the lake effect can carry inland better.  The snow box is getting pounded right now, with heavy snow and high winds.  Have a look at this graphic:

I know this is a bit confusing, but as you can see, there are advisories and warnings aplenty in this part of the world.  After we're done with this, then the pain really sets in...

BACK IN THE DEEP FREEZE:  Here's a look at another graphic.  If for some reason you don't feel it, have a look at the forecast temperatures as you head out tomorrow:

NAM Temperature Forecast 7 AM Friday 2/28/14

You'll want to get up a bit earlier to warm up the car and such, and take your precautions to avoid pipes bursting.  It will be THAT cold for awhile yet.  This frigid stuff at night will stay around into next week, then we don't see any real warming until next Thursday at the soonest.  Average high in Jackson this time of year is 39.  You can forget about even seeing the freezing mark for the next several days.  Plenty of wind to whip the snow around and keep it brutally cold out there.

WEEKEND STORM:  Yes - we'll get some snow.  Now, beyond that it gets tricky.  There's still some spread in the model solutions - in other words, there's no single scenario that looks like a best bet for the weekend yet.  We still have a little time, but you need to get prepared.  Here's what I'm seeing:

We see snow developing in a window from 6 AM to 1 PM Saturday.  We'll pick up a couple or three inches of snow during this first snow.  There should be a break in the action between say, 8 PM and 1 AM Sunday morning.  Problem: there's a bit of disagreement within the forecast models about whether it actually plays out like that.  We could see snow straight through into Sunday.  I will also say that Sunday looks to be the better day of the weekend for substantial snow.  Before it's all done I'm thinking we see 3-5" of new snow in this area, and it doesn't go anywhere either.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Just a continuation of this long, hard winter.  More cold, more snow.  Computer models say we break freezing next Thursday - don't hold your breath.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Winter Weather Advisory through 3 PM, periods of clouds and sun, clouds will bring lake-effect snow, intense at times, lowering visibility.  High 10.  Wind NNW 10-20 MPH will keep wind chills as much as -20.

Tonight - Clearing skies and bitter cold.  Lows down to -8, wind chills down to -20.  Wind turning SE and diminishing to 5-10 MPH.

Friday - Increasingly cloudy continued cold, some snow possible in the afternoon.  High 16, wind chills in the single digits.  Wind becoming NW 5-10 MPH.  Wind chills near zero.

Friday night - Cloudy, more substantial snow developing pre-dawn Saturday, lows hold near 14.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Saturday - cloudy, snowy during the day, possibly a break in the afternoon.  Warmer, high 27.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.