Afternoon Update...

Hello!

A bit of downtime while I am on lunch from the straight job.  Figured I would have a peek and see what is unfolding for the next several hours, and into the new week as we kick off February.

I AM BUMPING THE SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY:  After looking at the forecast data a bit more closely, I'm seeing trends that indicate to me that about 7" of snow is about right, instead of the six that I stated in the morning post.  My concern is that some intense shots of snow will migrate in from the southwest.  Remember, there's a Winter Storm Warning for Branch County until 10 PM tonight.  Here's a look at the current Tru-Track Doppler Radar image:

This is the radar for the area as of 2:30 PM.  You can see that we have all modes of precipitation on the board, also you see the heavy snow band stretching from Jackson back through Coldwater and into Indiana.  It seems to me like we'll get a few more bursts along that line.

WHAT ABOUT NEXT WEEK:  I'll briefly touch on it, as I stated before we're still a ways out.  Here's what I do know.  I have checked three computer models, and I am trying to get back to my links for a fourth.  Here's the two major scenarios I see.  I'll probably map these for you later so you have a picture of what I'm describing.  After the Canadian high pressure gets pushed out of here around mid-week (good model agreement on this, so we'll line up and run that)...

1)  A low pressure center comes northeast from the ArkLaMiss (where Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee come together),  but misses us far enough south that we pick up just a few inches of snow, maybe a 3-5" affair by say, Thursday.

2) A low that starts way down in south Texas comes up over the ArkLaMiss and through southern Indiana, but this one phases with and ultimately snaps up a smaller low that was trailing it, placed over the OK/TX border.  This guy gets bigger and deeper, with access to moist air off the Gulf and perhaps some lingering around in the Tennessee/Kentucky area, brings some major snow to the area, including southern Michigan.  That solution was the one being bandied about on social media.  Too early to call it.  The computers are generating another model run right now, so we'll probably have a few more puzzle pieces to work with then.

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS NOW:  I'm leaving everything else as is for now.

Have a good rest of your afternoon and be careful if you must travel!

WINTER STORM WARNING -BRANCH

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM.  6-9" of fresh snow by midnight.  Some icing is possible as well. Be aware!

Fresh Snow For You...

Good Morning!

Direct and to the point today, as I am on the move with a lot of things to cram into this nasty day weatherwise.  Here we go.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:  All counties in the blog are under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The time it expires depends on what county you're in.  Livingston, Washtenaw, Lenawee, Shiawassee, your advisory expires at midnight tonight.  Jackson, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Clinton, the advisory expires at 10 PM tonight.  Branch and Hillsdale counties, it is done at 1 PM.

SNOW TOTALS:  According to the National Weather Service, unless you're in Branch or Hillsdale county, you can expect 4-7" of snow between now and midnight.  Some areas will see locally heavier amounts, somewhere in the 8" category.  Branch and Hillsdale will see amounts from 6-9" today.  Here in Jackson, I am thinking right around the 6" mark fills the bill.  You should note that this will be heavy, wet snow.  This stuff is great for the kids to have snowball fights with, but it's dangerous for people shoveling; this is the snow that causes heart attacks.  The good news is we stay a bit warmer than in recent days...

TEMPERATURES DON'T DIP BELOW 20 FOR NOW:  The air temperatures this event will stay in the 20's at the worst, coming up as high as near freezing.  So the good thing is salt will have an effect on road and walking surfaces, and it will be needed, because with the temperatures as they are and a moist air mass, some of this precipitation will be freezing rain and sleet or even a wintry mix with ice possible.  Some areas could see a tenth of an inch of ice.  That will make driving tricky for even seasoned travelers so use caution today!

A BREAK IN THE ACTION TO START THE NEW WEEK:  We'll keep the clouds for a bit but not have to worry about anything falling out of them.  Sunday we start to see some clearing skies as Canadian high pressure works in behind this storm.  Temperatures will drop accordingly.  Maybe a few stray flurries tomorrow but that's about it until we get into Tuesday, as clouds start to thicken up and we see...

THE NEXT SNOW MAKER:  This storm comes in Tuesday evening, and contrary to popular belief on social media, at this point, I am NOT seeing any 18 inch snowfall totals.  There were a few graphics making the rounds showing the storm next week dumping over a foot of snow down through Chicago and points southwest, tracking up here into south central Michigan.  That was ONE run of ONE computer model.  That being said, it's not out of the realm of possibility, but just file it away.  There's a a lot of ground to cover between now and next week, too early to say with any high confidence that this is what will happen.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Winter Weather Advisory in effect.  Cloudy, snowy, snow at times may become intense, may also mix with freezing rain or sleet.  High 32.  Wind SE 5-10 MPH.  Accumulations around Jackson should be around 6", more as you head southwest.

Tonight - Snow tapering off after midnight, continued cloudy, a few stray flakes may reach daybreak of Sunday, lows near 20.  Wind turning NW 5-10 MPH as the cold air filters back in.

Sunday - Lingering clouds and colder, a few flurries through midday are possible, high 26.  WInd NW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday Night - Clearing skies and colder, lows down to 3, wind chills as much as -15.

Monday - Mainly sunny, cold again, high 21.

Tuesday - Increasing clouds, some light snow developing late, high 24.

There's a look at your forecast and the immediate weather situation.  I'll have more later this evening.  Have a great day!  Blessings.

Serious Snow

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory thru 1 AM tonight for Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Calhoun and Jackson.

A Winter Storm Watch is also up for these counties starting tomorrow night and going through 1 AM Saturday.  Details tomorrow...

Another Snowy Stretch - Not As Cold

Good Morning!

We should see some of the warmest readings in days on the thermometer!  I didn't think I would see a day where we would rejoice over breaking 20 degrees, but those days are here.  Let's have a look at see what cooking:

MODERATING TEMPERATURE:  I just checked the records at the National Weather Service Grand Rapids.  Jackson hasn't seen the freezing mark in 10 days!  We don't get there today either, but at least we get into the 20's.  Now is the time to salt outside, as it's warm enough for it to actually have some effect. The average in the area this time of year is right around 31, and forecast data seems to like 30-32 for a high Saturday, before we get cold again next week.  In exchange for these relatively balmy readings, we bring in...

SOME NEW SNOW:  A twin barreled event for us again.  The area becomes overcast by lunchtime with snow starting this afternoon.  This should be a huge deal, it's another Clipper that will bring up to 2" of snow to some areas by tomorrow at sunrise.  We get a little bit of time to plow that off, then the snow cranks up again for the main event Friday afternoon and evening.  That system is associated with a low coming out of the Ozarks and it will track pretty much right over us.  Here's the deal.  I'll need to see at least one more model run to determine if that low slides north of us (a bit less snow than currently expected), or goes south of us (we could see higher amounts than currently being predicted).  Right now the computers are suggesting snowfall totals in the 4-8" range.

A BREAK THEN MORE?:  After we get through the weekend, it looks like we get a break in the action with high pressure moving into the area until perhaps Tuesday, when we could see another sizeable snow with two lows combining forces and heading into the Ohio Valley.  If that verifies we could see another storm with another 4-6" of snow for the middle of next week.  I guess this is Nature's way of evening up for the drought we have had.

Here's the forecast:

Today - increasing clouds, developing snow by evening drive, high 26.  Wind WSW 8-16 MPH, increasing to 25-35 MPH and gusting higher.

Tonight - cloudy, snow winding down by daybreak Friday, up to 2" depending on location.  Low 17.  Wind SSW 20-30 MPH.

I'll have an update and extended forecast for you later today, time for the regular job!  Have a great day.

Currently...

Good Morning!

We warm up, and pay the price accordingly.  A Winter Weather Advisory is up for the west half of the blog, with a clipper dropping as much as 2" of snow tomorrow into Friday morning, then a more robust system lines us up from the west-southwest, and that one could tack on as much as 5" of new snow.  Here's where we stand now:

 I hope to have a forecast up for you by about 10 AM.  Have a good night.

Welcome Back To The Deep Freeze...

Good Morning.

I don't have the words to describe the cold out there right now, so I'll let this graphic do the talking:

Obviously, don't go out unless you have to be out.  If you've made it to work, stay there and eat today!  If you have to go out, please bundle up and make it quick.  I'm looking for light at the end of the tunnel with a forecast as we speak!

The Freezer Is Open...

Good Evening!

Here comes the tough stuff...have a look at these graphics:

You see the wind chills and forecast - be careful!

Wind Chills....

Have a look at the current wind chill values around the state.  These will get worse as we get into the nighttime hours:

More to come later.

Here Comes The Pain...Again!

Good Morning!

The title basically says it all.  Straight to the forecast graphics, and more detail later today.  If I get busy at work, that'll be tonight.

Have a great day!