Summer Heat, Summer Storms...

Good Morning!

Enough time to squeeze out a quick look at what should transpire the next few days here.  Let's dive into it.

HOT AND STEAMY TODAY:  With readings already touching 80 in most spots in the blog area and dewpoint values well into the 60's it's going to feel plenty steamy!  Heat index values are already reaching into the middle 80's, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them get into the lower 90's this afternoon as the heat of the day sets in!  I predicted 91 as the high today in yesterday's post, and the forecast computers are coming in at 88 for today.  I'm going to go with 90 for today's high in Jackson.  All of the heat and humidity will bring some changes today and tonight as we get...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MOVE:  The Storm Prediction Center has put in a "slight" risk for severe weather just to the west of the core blog area, impacting west Michigan and points further southwest.  Here's a look at that map:

The good news is this doesn't much look like a tornado-based threat.  This will be a likely be a damaging wind and hail event.  Things should start to develop after about 2 PM, as we get into the heat of the day.  It should continue into the nighttime hours, as cooler weather moves in behind these storms.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Much cooler for midweek, carrying all the way into just about the weekend, with thermometers in the area giving up almost 15 degrees.  After today and perhaps early tomorrow, sunshine with readings in the mid to upper 70's are on tap, with the next real shot at rain coming later Saturday and into Sunday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, showers and thunderstorms developing after 2 PM.  Some of these may bring strong wind or small hail.  High 90.  Wind SSE 9-18 MPH.

Tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through about midnight, then clearing and cooler, lows roll back to 61.  Wind WNW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday - Clearing skies, much cooler, high 75, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday - Sunny and seasonably mild, high 77.

Friday - More sun, a touch warmer, high 80.

Saturday - Increasing clouds, a few widely spaced showers possible in the afternoon, high 82.

There's a look at the forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

A Touch Of Summer Heat - Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

A lot of things going on both in and out of work the last week or so, therefore my time has been limited.  Not a ton of things going on in this part of the world weather-wise, so that's good.  Things starting to change a little bit though, so let's take a look...

SUMMER WARMTH IS BACK:  It definitely will feel like summer the next day or so, with readings in the upper 80's; I won't be shocked at all to see a 90 or two in the south zone today or tomorrow.  Ridge setup over most of the USA with a a 594 heat dome making his presence known just off to the southwest of Michigan.  Plenty of heat to go around.  Here's a bird's eye view about 18,000 feet up...

QUIET FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO:  Nothing much to see in the way of showers or storms for the next day or so.  The ridge is just too strong and the air isn't right for storm formation.  Too stable at this point.  Could we have a lonely storm fire?  Sure - but doubtful given this setup.  Just a lot of warm air coming up from the south as the west winds off the Pacific have to run WAY south then turn around the bottom of the heat dome you just saw.  Wednesday, a small upper disturbance could give us some showers and maybe a thunderstorm as it works through the area.

NOT A LOT OF RAIN - HERE ANYWAY:  Check out the 5-day Precipitation forecast map...

This suggests to me that we'll see some showers and storms tomorrow evening and Wednesday in West Michigan, with the thinking being they'll fizzle out as they move east across the state.  That's the big picture, but there's still some smaller puzzle pieces that could change this.

Just to toss in really quickly, folks in the Dakotas and Minnesota could be in for some adventure today, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed that area in a Moderate risk for severe weather.  Here's that map:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today:  Sunny with a couple of passing clouds, warm, high 86.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tonight:  Moonlit skies, some clouds float by, lows near 60, wind SE 4-8 MPH.

Tuesday:  AM sunshine, increasing clouds in the afternoon - we mention the possibility of an isolated shower or storm, high 90.  Wind SSE 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday Night:  Cloudy, some scattered showers or a thunderstorm, low near 63.  Wind SSE 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday:  Cloudy to start, a few lingering showers, then clearing.  Cooler.  High 80.

Thursday:  More sun than clouds, seasonably mild, high 79.

Friday:  Sunny and pleasant, high 80.

There's your forecast through the end of the workweek, I'll work on a weekend forecast for you as time permits the next day or two.  Blessings!