Fabulous Weekend!

Good Morning!

Lunch turned into a working lunch of sorts, so I wasn't able to get a detailed forecast up for you.  I am sorry.  I promise you I will figure out how to get this done right eventually.  I appreciate all of you readers sticking with me!

The trough that brought us the rain and cooler weather early Friday is off to our east now, and clear autumn skies are with us.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what's cooking!

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see seasonably mild weather, temperatures in the mid to upper 70's for the weekend...GOOORGEOUS football weather!  It surely was beautiful for high school football last night, and the same will hold true for college football today.  We stay fairly mild until our next weather-maker arrives on Tuesday with some showers (more on that below), and then much cooler with a chance of some scattered showers each day for the rest of the week.

RAIN:  Nothing in sight for the weekend, all you'll need is a sweater or hoodie if you're out and about in the evening.  Crystal clear skies for college football games today.  Monday afternoon we'll start to see some clouds roll in, and these will thicken, a few scattered showers will be running loose in the area through the day Tuesday.  Here's what the National Weather Service is thinking regarding precipitation the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

This map shows that we won't get tons of rain, as we get the lion's share of that out of here Wednesday, but an upper trough does keep the chances of rain around 30% right through the rest of the week.  From the perch today, no one gets washed out, if anything, we'll probably see something similar to what we had Friday.  A few hours of rain, followed by clearing and some sunshine.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not in this neck of the woods.  The Storm Prediction Center doesn't have severe storms anywhere in the mix for the next three days.  Just a quiet fall pattern in place.

Look at this visible satellite image, just a few clouds in the northern Lower Peninsula.  Otherwise, SUNSHINE!

Visible Satellite Image

Here's your forecast for Jackson County.

Today, sunny, mild, high 73, winds NW 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, starry skies, very cool, lows roll back to 44, winds variable, calm to 3 MPH.

Sunday, clear skies, warmer, high 77 winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday night, moonlit and marvelous, not as cool, low 47, winds SW 3-6 MPH.

Monday, clear skies to start, clouds start building in as the day progresses, chance of a widely spaced shower, high 75.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers, sharply cooler, high 63.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, an isolated shower can't be ruled out, high 60.

Thursday, partly to mainly cloudy skies, still the chance of a shower or two, high 63.

Friday, overcast skies, scattered showers throughout the day are expected, high 62.

That's your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Saturday!  Enjoy some football!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Friday

Good Morning!

A sick little girl needed tending to, so no graphic forecast today, but...I have looked at some data.

The NAM forecast model had it right with a speedier departure of rain.  Most places are seeing rain taper off now, and sunshine with cooler conditions on the back side of the cold front. 

Forecast for today, clearing out by lunchtime, bringing mostly sunny skies, high 72, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, mostly clear skies, a few passing clouds, lows near 40, NNW winds 3-8 MPH.

I plan on having a full forecast discussion when I get a lunchbreak from the day job.

Have a good day!

Some Thoughts On Today and Tomorrow...

Hello There!

Just a quick update since I have time over my lunch to look at some weather data.  It looks like the NAM and GFS have sped up the precipitation a little bit for tomorrow.  Modeling still indicates that a line of showers connected with the approaching cold front should move into the area after 11PM as I forecast earlier today.  Now they suggest that the rain should be pretty well gone by evening rush tomorrow, making for a cool and dry night to watch football.  I'll lock that in and possibly do some slight forecast tweaking later, after one more model run has occurred.

Summer Heads Out, Falling Rain & Temperatures Roll In...

Good Morning!

One last day of summer-like conditions on tap today in South Central Michigan, then some changes are on the way.  We'll see fall weather make it's presence known in a resounding fashion over the next several days.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  The mercury climbs into the upper 70's with a couple of 80's scattered in the mix for variety today.  After that, for this evening, clouds increase, winds change to more northwest than southwest, and some shower activity moves in (more on that below), then we see temperatures only making it into the lower 70's.  By this time next week we see conditions even cooler, topping out in the lower 60's for daytime highs, and nighttime lows that give some thought to dropping below 40!

RAIN:  Some rain is in the offing to go with the cooler temperatures around the area.  That being said, JV football around the area tonight should be dry, albeit cloudy.  Rain chances go up throughout the evening and rain should start falling sometime after 11PM.  That rain will stay with us through lunchtime tomorrow, then start clearing mid-afternoon.  Most high school football stadiums should be drying out in time for Friday Night Varsity football, but keep your umbrella with you in case a few straggling showers hang around your game of choice.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks of the five day rain chances:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

This is further evidence that the computer forecast models seem to have the rain picture in hand, with decent agreement between the GFS and NAM models with the exception of timing (typical), most areas come in under an inch, though some places may see a touch more than that.

SEVERE WEATHER:  It's getting to be that time of year when we can start winding down the severe weather in this part of the world and start thinking about coping with winter storms down the line here.  That being said, don't get caught out...remember the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak four years ago in November!  Spring and Fall have the best chance at severe weather, as the atmosphere trades cool, dry, and stable, for moist, warm, and unstable, or vice-versa.  The Storm Prediction Center says there's no severe weather expected anywhere in the USA for the next 72 hours, and no general thunderstorm activity is forecast for Michigan or the Midwest.

A little different look around the area today.  I have used this look before so you can see the bigger picture, and that's appropriate for us now examining today's forecast data.  This is the visible satellite image with NEXRAD radar composite overlay, so you can see what's headed this way the next 18-36 hours...

Visible Satellite Image with NEXRAD Radar Composite Overlay

The cold front is off to the west in Wisconsin, and tracking this way.  Mr. Surface Low is north of the border in Canada, dragging the frontal boundary along with him as he moves east.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Leoni Township and Spring Arbor...

Today, partly sunny to start, then increasing clouds, high 82, winds SW then turning NNW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight, periods of scattered to numerous showers as a cold front comes in, lows near 52, winds NW 4-8 MPH.

Friday, showers early, these will start to taper off mid-afternoon with clearing behind the rain, high of 71.  Winds NNW 4-9 MPH.

Friday night, continued clearing skies, showers should be gone in most areas, lows near 41, winds N 4-8 MPH.

Saturday, sunny and autumn-like, great college football weather!  High 72.

Sunday, clear and comfortable, a bit warmer with daytime highs near 75.

Monday, sunny to start, clouds thicken during the day as another frontal system advances this way, a scattered shower is possible late, high 73.

Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers, cooler, high only 62.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, a scattered shower or two can't be ruled out, high 60.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Thursday!

Good Morning!

Blended Sunshine today, then fall returns!  Here's my forecast for today...

Forecast discussion on the way!

A Reminder of Summer, Then Fall Returns....

Good Morning!

Indian Summer pays us a visit, with very warm temperatures for today into tomorrow, then the mercury tumbles back into seasonable and cool conditions in time for the weekend.  Time to take a deeper dive and see what's going on...

TEMPERATURES:  We will see temperatures climb into the 80's over the next day and a half.  We have high pressure and a 588 ridge dominating the upper air setup, and an unimpeded southwesterly wind flow bringing us conditions that are warm and summer-like.  That changes soon though, as a trough digs into central Indiana and Ohio in time for this weekend, turning winds northwesterly again, cooling things down, and bringing a chance at some light rain with it.  Looking into next week, we'll see temperatures drop into the 60's and a fall pattern setting up.

RAIN:  Rain chances start to creep up for Friday and the weekend, but nothing major and mot a washout by any stretch of the imagination.  Just a few scattered showers here and there for the weekend, Friday Night Football looks to be dry for most places in the area.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service forecast for rain the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see, most areas come in at around a half-inch, and this looks pretty good.  I don't think the forecast models are very far off base with this look.  My advice for Friday is to toss an umbrella and jacket in the car just to be on the safe side if you're heading out Friday evening.  The middle of next shows a good chance at some rain, looking ahead.

SEVERE WEATHER:  You won't see any severe weather here or anywhere else in the United States for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  We are in the middle of a very benign setup, without much instability to kick off storms.  Just a general thunderstorm risk that doesn't even include the Midwest.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet, and it's a little tricky to see with the sun not all the way up to illuminate things for the satellite, but the visible satellite image shows some clouds that are part of the trough coming this way for the weekend.  A few showers will be under that feature periodically...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Vandercook Lake:

For today, sunny skies, warm and summery, high 83, winds SW 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, mainly clear skies, perhaps a couple of passing clouds, not as cool as prior nights with lows rolling back to 56, winds SW 4-8 MPH.

Thursday, sunny to start, then clouds roll in as the day progresses, high 79, winds SSW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday night, periods of clouds and stars, an outside chance of a stray shower, low 54, winds NW 4-8 MPH.

Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a widely scattered afternoon or evening shower is possible, cooler with a high of only 69.

Saturday, sunny skies and seasonably cool, high 72.

Sunday, continued clear and pleasant, high 74.

Monday, mixed sunshine, an isolated or widely scattered shower can't be ruled out, high 71.

Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies, periods of scattered showers possible, high 72.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful day!
Blessings!

Quick Look For Hump Day...

Good Morning!

The warmest day of the week is here, and we'll see summer-like conditions today.  It starts cooling back into a fall regime later.  Here's my forecast for today:

Complete six-day forecast and discussion are on the way!

Quick Peek At Tuesday

Good Morning!

It's Patriot Day - remember those who lost their lives on this day back in 2001.  Another fabulous day!
Here's my forecast:

Complete forecast discussion will be here later on!

Fabulous Fall Weather, A Dash of Summer Thrown In...

Good Morning!

Shades of fall have been in the air the last few days, and we'll continue that trend for another day or so, then a bit of Indian Summer makes it way into the area, as warm temperatures take hold again and start a farewell tour of sorts, while we work deeper into meteorological fall.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have going on!

TEMPERATURES:  These will stay in the cooler fall regime for another day or so with a ridge/trough upper air setup across the nation.  Several areas got some good soaking rain over the weekend courtesy of a  surface low and cold front that moved across the area starting Friday evening.  Temperatures cooled noticeably after that.  The pattern will soon shift again though as that ridge gets a little gumption and kicks the cooler air back across the border into Canada, with warm air building in here, the upper pattern flips into a trough/ridge setup, and we'll be under the warm ridge.  Temperatures should get back into the 80's midweek, and stay there until Friday, when we drop back into more seasonable 70's, along with a chance at some rain (more on that below).

RAIN:  We have a decent shot at some rain toward the tail end of the week, we're looking at about a 30-45% chance of rain in the area at any given point, that opportunity window stretches from after the morning drive into work on Friday, all the way into Saturday morning.  After that, we'll be working back into the clear, cooler fall conditions.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks about our rain chances for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see, about a half-inch tops in most of the blog area, some places may see closer to an inch.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a very quiet period for us for the next few days.  No severe weather risk anywhere in the United States, and limited thunderstorm risk for the next three days.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD is sleeping, and there's nothing but clarity on the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Michigan Center:

Today, sunny, seasonably mild, pleasant, high 74, winds WSW 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, clear and cool, a few low lying spots may pick develop some fog late, lows roll back to 47, winds SW 3-5 MPH.

Patriot Day, sunny, warmer, high 80, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow night, mostly starry skies, not as cool as previous nights, lows near 52, winds SW 3-7 MPH.  Again. some low-lying areas could have fog by daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday, continued clear and warm, high 82, winds remain SW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, clear skies to start then afternoon clouds develop, warm, the chance of a stray shower cannot be ruled out, high 83.

Friday, partly to mostly cloudy skies with the chance of a widely scattered or scattered shower here and there, cooler with a high of 74.

Saturday, early clouds give way to sunshine and cooler, more seasonable conditions, high of 73.

Sunday, plenty of sunshine and seasonable, high 73.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, plenty of sun is in it, get out and enjoy!  Have a great day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Monday!

Gorgeous Weather in the works, here's my forecast for today and tonight!

Six Day forecast and Discussion on the way!

Quick Text Look For Sunday...

Hello!  Enjoying a rare unoccupied Sunday off with my daughter tearing through the playground at a local park.

No laptop with me so limited in resources, here's my forecast...

For the rest of Sunday, increasing clouds with some sunshine, high 73, winds NNW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, clearing, not as chilly as last night, low 46, winds taper off to NW 3-6 MPH.

I plan to have a forecast for the new week later, right now I am going to enjoy a little relaxation.  Blessings!