Summer Heads Out, Falling Rain & Temperatures Roll In...

Good Morning!

One last day of summer-like conditions on tap today in South Central Michigan, then some changes are on the way.  We'll see fall weather make it's presence known in a resounding fashion over the next several days.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  The mercury climbs into the upper 70's with a couple of 80's scattered in the mix for variety today.  After that, for this evening, clouds increase, winds change to more northwest than southwest, and some shower activity moves in (more on that below), then we see temperatures only making it into the lower 70's.  By this time next week we see conditions even cooler, topping out in the lower 60's for daytime highs, and nighttime lows that give some thought to dropping below 40!

RAIN:  Some rain is in the offing to go with the cooler temperatures around the area.  That being said, JV football around the area tonight should be dry, albeit cloudy.  Rain chances go up throughout the evening and rain should start falling sometime after 11PM.  That rain will stay with us through lunchtime tomorrow, then start clearing mid-afternoon.  Most high school football stadiums should be drying out in time for Friday Night Varsity football, but keep your umbrella with you in case a few straggling showers hang around your game of choice.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks of the five day rain chances:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

This is further evidence that the computer forecast models seem to have the rain picture in hand, with decent agreement between the GFS and NAM models with the exception of timing (typical), most areas come in under an inch, though some places may see a touch more than that.

SEVERE WEATHER:  It's getting to be that time of year when we can start winding down the severe weather in this part of the world and start thinking about coping with winter storms down the line here.  That being said, don't get caught out...remember the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak four years ago in November!  Spring and Fall have the best chance at severe weather, as the atmosphere trades cool, dry, and stable, for moist, warm, and unstable, or vice-versa.  The Storm Prediction Center says there's no severe weather expected anywhere in the USA for the next 72 hours, and no general thunderstorm activity is forecast for Michigan or the Midwest.

A little different look around the area today.  I have used this look before so you can see the bigger picture, and that's appropriate for us now examining today's forecast data.  This is the visible satellite image with NEXRAD radar composite overlay, so you can see what's headed this way the next 18-36 hours...

Visible Satellite Image with NEXRAD Radar Composite Overlay

The cold front is off to the west in Wisconsin, and tracking this way.  Mr. Surface Low is north of the border in Canada, dragging the frontal boundary along with him as he moves east.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Leoni Township and Spring Arbor...

Today, partly sunny to start, then increasing clouds, high 82, winds SW then turning NNW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight, periods of scattered to numerous showers as a cold front comes in, lows near 52, winds NW 4-8 MPH.

Friday, showers early, these will start to taper off mid-afternoon with clearing behind the rain, high of 71.  Winds NNW 4-9 MPH.

Friday night, continued clearing skies, showers should be gone in most areas, lows near 41, winds N 4-8 MPH.

Saturday, sunny and autumn-like, great college football weather!  High 72.

Sunday, clear and comfortable, a bit warmer with daytime highs near 75.

Monday, sunny to start, clouds thicken during the day as another frontal system advances this way, a scattered shower is possible late, high 73.

Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers, cooler, high only 62.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, a scattered shower or two can't be ruled out, high 60.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.