A (Small) Break In The Bitter Cold...

Good Morning!

Still plenty of bitter, nasty cold to go around!  Here's a look at the wind chill values as I write this, and there is not a single solitary wind chill value on the positive side - have a look at this:

-15 in Jackson, -16 in Lansing and Ann Arbor, the closest to zero we have right now is -2 in Kalamazoo.

The pain continues for the foreseeable future too.  I know that's not what you wanted to hear, but that's what it looks like here.  With the exception of Saturday, I don't anticipate any real moderation in readings until after the first of the month!  The air pattern setup is similar to January of 2014, when we had a lengthy cold air outbreak that sent temperatures plummeting to the levels currently in the area.

STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST:  Cold, northwest winds, lake effect snow.  I could leave it at that and be on the mark, but you need at least some detail, so let's have a look at it.

BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY:  A slight reprieve from the bitter cold to start the weekend with temperatures right around freezing.  That's the warmest it's been in awhile!  The GFS forecast model is suggesting a high of 32 for Jackson and 30 for Lansing.  Then after that, it's back to the cold with readings no higher than say, 21 in the area.

LOWER SNOW CHANCES:  After we get through the weekend, the snow chances inland diminish, though the lake shore will still have to deal with that pesky lake effect. In the snow box, each day will have a chance of light to moderate snows.  The good news is that I don't expect them to spread eastward until Wednesday, when a low pressure center slides north of Michigan, as that looks like enough to trigger at least some light snow in the area.  We'll have to see how that unfolds over the next couple of days.

QUIET UNTIL EARLY MARCH:  After the Wednesday weather maker, the next chance of snow in the area looks to be early March, when a good sized storm slides just under Michigan, putting the blog in the heavy snow part of the storm as it tracks east.  Now this is almost two weeks out, so just know the forecast will change.  You can't hang a hat on anything but trends that far out.  The only reason I mention it is because I have seen that storm feature persist for a few runs now, with the timing changing somewhat.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Partly cloudy, frigid.  High 5.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH makes the coldest wind chill values -10.

Tonight - Skies clearing, becoming bitter cold.  Lows near -11, winds turning WSW 3-6 MPH make the coldest wind chills -15.

Friday - Becoming cloudy, high 10.

Saturday - Cloudy, snow developing, max accumulations expected to be about 1.5".  High 32.

Sunday - Partial clearing, colder.  High 17.

That's how things look through the weekend.  Have a great day!

Trying To Cope With The Deep Freeze...

Good Morning!

Cloudy and snowy - readings still very cold, but not quite the bone-numbing instant frostbite stuff that has been in the area the last 36 hours or so.  Rest assured, that will be back soon enough, as you look at conditions to the northwest of Michigan.  You really cant tell the difference in temperatures right now though, with 10-15 MPH winds right now.  Let's take a look.

SNOW MACHINE STILL RUNNING:  You can see in the visible satellite image the west-northwesterly winds coming across Lake Michigan making sure that snow box stays well- covered with snow, and the snow bands extending well inland, reaching as far as the US-127 corridor.  Don't expect that to change anytime soon either...

MORE BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY:  As I alluded to, more bitter cold air on the way in the next 24 hours or so.  The lake effect snow machine will dial back a bit, as readings dip into the sub-zero lows again, with highs in the single digits.  The 18 degrees we see today will feel balmy compared to highs that fight to get much above zero!  I'm forecasting a high of 12 tomorrow, and then the bottom falls out with readings barely holding 5 above for Thursday, and lows as cold as -15 before you even tack on a wind chill value!  Expect Wind Chill Advisories or Warnings for tomorrow and Thursday night in the area.

PERIODS OF SNOW:  I expect some light to even moderate snow in the area through Wednesday night.  Thursday we catch a break, as the bitter cold temporarily shuts down the snow machine, at least inland.  After Thursday, a rebound in temperatures to near the freezing mark allows more lake effect snow to develop.

LOOKING AHEAD:  For the weekend, some light snow on Friday and perhaps into Saturday, with some mixed sunshine as well - lake effect snow bands will keep rotating through, with a bona fide low coming out of the southern Plains on Saturday that could track south of Michigan and bring some more substantial snows to the area.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Mainly cloudy.  Periods of snow continue as lake effect bands keep rotating through the area.  Lows near 3.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH will bring coldest wind chills down to -12.

Wednesday - Continued cloudy and cold.  Highs near 12.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH will keep wind chill values at or just below zero.

Thursday - Some clearing, bitter cold.  Daytime highs struggle to hold 5 above.  NW winds 6-12 MPH keep coldest wind chills between -10 to -13.

I'll have more for you later.  Have a great Wednesday!

WIND CHILL WARNING ISSUED

Good Morning!

I told you last night that the wind chills out there would be nothing to mess with. Here's the National Weather Service's take on it all:

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO DANGEROUS VALUES OF 20 TO 35 BELOW THIS
MORNING.
IMPACTS...
* ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
* THE BITTER COLD WILL MAKE IT VERY HAZARDOUS IF YOU SHOULD
BECOME STRANDED. FROSTBITE TIMES WILL BE UNDER 30 MINUTES.

Please use common sense and be careful of you must travel.  Temperatures today will struggle to get to and hold the teens for daytime highs.