A (Small) Break In The Bitter Cold...

Good Morning!

Still plenty of bitter, nasty cold to go around!  Here's a look at the wind chill values as I write this, and there is not a single solitary wind chill value on the positive side - have a look at this:

-15 in Jackson, -16 in Lansing and Ann Arbor, the closest to zero we have right now is -2 in Kalamazoo.

The pain continues for the foreseeable future too.  I know that's not what you wanted to hear, but that's what it looks like here.  With the exception of Saturday, I don't anticipate any real moderation in readings until after the first of the month!  The air pattern setup is similar to January of 2014, when we had a lengthy cold air outbreak that sent temperatures plummeting to the levels currently in the area.

STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST:  Cold, northwest winds, lake effect snow.  I could leave it at that and be on the mark, but you need at least some detail, so let's have a look at it.

BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY:  A slight reprieve from the bitter cold to start the weekend with temperatures right around freezing.  That's the warmest it's been in awhile!  The GFS forecast model is suggesting a high of 32 for Jackson and 30 for Lansing.  Then after that, it's back to the cold with readings no higher than say, 21 in the area.

LOWER SNOW CHANCES:  After we get through the weekend, the snow chances inland diminish, though the lake shore will still have to deal with that pesky lake effect. In the snow box, each day will have a chance of light to moderate snows.  The good news is that I don't expect them to spread eastward until Wednesday, when a low pressure center slides north of Michigan, as that looks like enough to trigger at least some light snow in the area.  We'll have to see how that unfolds over the next couple of days.

QUIET UNTIL EARLY MARCH:  After the Wednesday weather maker, the next chance of snow in the area looks to be early March, when a good sized storm slides just under Michigan, putting the blog in the heavy snow part of the storm as it tracks east.  Now this is almost two weeks out, so just know the forecast will change.  You can't hang a hat on anything but trends that far out.  The only reason I mention it is because I have seen that storm feature persist for a few runs now, with the timing changing somewhat.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Partly cloudy, frigid.  High 5.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH makes the coldest wind chill values -10.

Tonight - Skies clearing, becoming bitter cold.  Lows near -11, winds turning WSW 3-6 MPH make the coldest wind chills -15.

Friday - Becoming cloudy, high 10.

Saturday - Cloudy, snow developing, max accumulations expected to be about 1.5".  High 32.

Sunday - Partial clearing, colder.  High 17.

That's how things look through the weekend.  Have a great day!