Rainy & Cooler To Start - Then Warming

Good Morning!

Periods of sun through a broken cloud deck greet us here in south central Michigan this Friday morning. We'll keep the clouds around, thicken them, and introduce some precipitation.  Let's have a look at what's going on.

COOLING AGAIN, THEN A WARM-UP:  We have a low pressure center in Michigan's upper peninsula, poised to track northeast into Canada.  That thing is dragging a cold front along with it, and when it comes through, it sends the mercury back into the low 70's, as opposed to the 76-80 degree range we should experience today.  It wouldn't shock me to see some spots come in under 50 for the nighttime lows tomorrow night, with daytime highs Saturday barely into the lower 70's!  As we peer through the binoculars into mid week, warming occurs as the troughing damps out in the upper air, and flat ridging allows warmer temperatures to ease in.  Nothing scorching mind you, seasonable readings around 84 is what I see right now.  Here's a look at what's going on temperature-wise across the nation:

KEEP THE UMBRELLA CLOSE BY:  For this evening and into tomorrow, you'll want an umbrella handy, because venturing out means you'll run into some raindrops.  The frontal boundary connected to the low I mentioned above will do some lifting of the air and create at least some showers and perhaps a couple of buried thunderstorms.  Not a washout for today or tomorrow, just know that you'll have a 30% to even money chance at rain the next 36 hours.  We note scattered showers northwest of a line from Benton Harbor to Midland.  Let's see what the Weather Prediction Center says regarding rain the next five days:

Not much more than three-quraters of an inch on the high side, that's been the story the last few days.  Most of that comes with the showers that I expect to become more numerous as the day progresses today into tonight.  We'll also have to see how much sun we get today , and how much atmospheric energy may be expended across the lake in Wisconsin, where the Storm Prediction Center has set up that area with a "slight" risk of severe weather for today.  Nothing like that forecast anywhere in Michigan.  That being said, expect the unexpected.  The best chance for rain looks to be from about 3 PM on, lingering into perhaps mid-morning tomorrow.  I am splitting the difference between multiple model solutions with that estimate, so bear it in mind.

Here's the visible satellite showing the clouds and such headed this way:

And here's the forecast for South Central Michigan:

Today, increasingly cloudy, some afternoon scattered showers develop, along with maybe a thunderstorm or two, high 79.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, scattered showers become a bit more dense, lows near 60.  Wind becoming W 4-7 MPH.

Saturday, some lingering showers and possibly a roaming thunderstorm early, then partly sunny, cooler, high only 73.  Wind W 5-10 tapering off to 3-7 MPH.

Saturday night, mostly cloudy, a few peeks at stars possible, very cool, lows all the way down to 51.  Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, mainly cloudy, a couple of spots could see a hit & run shower, continued cool - high 68.

Monday, some peeks of sunshine mixed with clouds, we can't rule out an isolated shower, a touch warmer, high 73.

Tuesday, mainly sunny with some passing clouds, our warmer air starts working in, high 79.

Wednesday, partly sunny skies, seasonably warm.  High 82.

Thursday, nearly a carbon copy of Wednesday, mixed sunshine and seasonable, high 84.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a wonderful weekend!  Blessings.

Afternoon Update

Hello!

Mainly sunny in the blog right now - nothing on radar to see, and just some fair weather stratocumulus here and there.  We do note some severe thunderstorms way off in Minnesota, entering Wisconsin soon.  Here's my forecast for this evening and tomorrow:

Have a great afternoon!

Weekend Showers, Still Cool

Good Morning!

Another day of mainly sunny skies and cooler than normal conditions is on tap for south central Michigan.  We stay dry today and into tomorrow, with some building clouds and some rain to start off the weekend.  Let's have a look:

COOL CANADIAN AIR:  We continue to be under the influence of cool Canadian air in the upper air pattern, with a trough over the eastern almost two thirds of the US.  We don't expect that pattern to shift a whole lot in coming days either.  We will warm back up some as we wind down July, but that looks more like a flattening out of the upper flow, which will naturally allow temperatures to rise a bit as the Westerlies do exactly what their name implies - blow from west to east across the US.  Have a look at this surface temp map and you'll see the ridge/trough setup, with a twist - warmer, more humid air nosing into the Great Plains.  That's why they are under a slight risk for severe weather today.

NOT A LOT OF RAIN:  We'll see some rain this weekend in fits and starts, and not a whole lot more than that for the next few days.  An occasional summer shower or pop-up storm is possible, but nothing really organized that I can see for the next several days.  Forecast model solutions are showing a low tracking through the Upper Peninsula and dragging a surface boundary along with him as it tracks east.  That boundary is what will bring us our weekend rain this trip.  Now the one change from last night in my "Looking Ahead" graphic, model solutions now include some low end rain chances for basically the next week starting tomorrow afternoon.  Now I have said numerous times that models don't handle the fine details to predict small-scale rain very well, so I am leaning toward a bit drier look that what the GFS says.  Here's what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking for the next several days regarding rain:

No more that three-quarters of an inch for us through the end of July, so picnic and barbeque to your heart's content!  If you do it this weekend, plan on using your umbrella for a bit tomorrow and perhaps early Saturday.

NO ROUGH STUFF:  The Storm Prediction Center does not have us in any sort of enhanced severe risk area for the next three days.  In fact - the US as a whole looks pretty calm after we get through today, with the slight risk area that starts up by Green Bay, WI, goes southwest into places like Lincoln and Omaha, NE, then cuts almost due south into Amarillo, TX and Fort Sill, OK.  The areas inside the risk bubble could see some wind and hail as the primary modes of severe weather, with possibly a bit of flash flooding as well.

I will forego showing you Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, because you won't see anything but ground clutter around the dish.  The visible satellite is clear for us as well, just some clouds up in Wisconsin, those are just ahead of the disturbance that will bring us the rain and such in the next 36 hours or so.

Here's the forecast:

Today, mainly sunny with a few PM clouds, seasonably mild, high 77.  Wind SE calm to 5 MPH.

Tonight, starry skies, another wonderful night of sleeping weather, not as chilly as the last couple of nights, lows near 54, wind turning S 3-7 MPH.

Friday, becoming cloudy, some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, high 80.  Wind SW 4-9 MPH.

Friday night, showers continuing in scattered fashion, cool again, low 54.  Wind NW 4-7 MPH.

Saturday, some stray showers and thunderstorms still in the area through midday, then cloudy - unseasonably cool again, high only 73.

Sunday, mixed sunshine, a couple of spots could see a hit & run shower, continued cool - high 73.

Monday, mainly cloudy with some peeks of sunshine, we can't rule out an isolated shower, high 76.

Tuesday, more mixed sunshine, warmer, high 80.

Wednesday, partly sunny, seasonable.  High 84.

There's a look at your forecast for the next several days, have a good one!  Blessings!

Looking Into The Crystal Ball...

Having a look at a week plus out - and things are looking fairly benign at the moment.  Multiple models are sniffing around solutions with these major themes:

Looks like a mild, enjoyable downhill ride toward the end of the month and into August...

You SURE This Is July?

Good Evening!

As we wind down the first of some cool, comfy days here in south central Michigan, it's incredible taking a look at the current conditions to see temperatures in the 70's across the board!

If you want a 75 you have to go all the way to Willow Run airport in Ypsilanti to find it!  I am working on the detailed forecast, we'll have that up for you later on this evening if all goes as planned...Talk to you then!

Wake-Up Forecast

If you work a 9 to 5, you're probably up around 6 AM, here's what tomorrow looks like.  No this not a misprint.  Unseasonably chilly to start the day:

Seven Day Outlook

Hey Gang!

Got the Seven Day Planner graphic rebuilt with a few tweaks.  Feedback is appreciated.

Yes this is the forecast and not a misprint - unseasonably cool, especially during the night!  Have a good one!

A Mixed Bag Today - Clearing & Cooler Later!

Good Afternoon!

LOOKING AT THE RADAR:  As I write this, we see a Severe Thunderstorm Warning just east of the blog, encompassing an area boxed by Waterford, Algonac, Port Huron, over to just southeast of Goodrich. Once we get that out of here, we'll be in decent shape for awhile, with just a few scattered showers and storms popping up back into south central Michigan.

MILDER UPPER AIR SETUP:  Once we get through this, it appears that things will be drying out and staying a touch on the cool side!  Forecast modeling is not showing anything warmer than 80 degrees in Jackson until next week, under cool northwesterly flow out of Canada with drier air.  The next somewhat decent chance at showers and storms looks to be Saturday/Sunday, with a low presuure center tracking through the Upper Peninsula dragging a surface boundary along with it.  Here's the forecast:

This afternoon - mixed sunshine, a few scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, these will increase in coverage some through the next few hours, high 84.  Wind SW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight - continued partly cloudy, a few stray showers or a storm early, then clearing and comfortable, lows all the way down to 51 with winds turning NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday - Sunny skies, unseasonably cool, high 75.  Winds NNW 4-8 MPH.

Wednesday night - mainly starry skies, continued cool - lows roll back to 50, wind N turning E 3-7 MPH.

Thursday - Mainly sunny with some passing clouds, a bit warmer, high 79.  Wind ESE 3-6 MPH.

Friday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, possibly a PM shower, high 80.

Saturday, some clouds, still the chance of a few afternoon showers, high 82.

There's a look at your forecast for the next few days, I hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings!

A Few Strong Storms, Nothing Severe At The Moment

Good Afternoon!

Clouds, sun  and a southwest breeze are in the area right now, with some showers and storms off to the northeast.  Let's have a look and see what's going on here:

A FEW STORMS ABOUT:  We'll see some clouds and sunshine in periods throughout the rest of today in most areas, with some rain moving through, especially north.  Right now we do note some showers and thunderstorms moving through the north part of the blog.  Eaton, Ingham, Shiawassee, and Livingston counties are seeing some activity.  The National Weather Service offices in both Grand Rapids and Detroit have issued some Significant Weather Advisories, but that's it.  Have a look this image - unfortunately Tru-Track Doppler is not functioning at the moment, so here is standard NEXRAD out of Detroit:

We'll continue to see some scattered showers and storms around through this evening and maybe even a straggler or two until about 10 PM or so.  The ones on the radar now will have some heavy rain, winds up around 40 MPH or so, and maybe some penny sized hail but that's it.  I am working on the forecast, so stay tuned for that.