Stormy Sunday, Then Cooler...

Good Evening!

Another warm day is winding down in South Central Michigan.  We'll see some showers and storms in the area in the not too distant future, then we'll see some cooler temperatures that will definitely feel more refreshing for you.  Let's have a look at it...

WARM ONE FOR SURE:  Very warm readings today coming from the airport observation data.  Capital City in Lansing had 88 degrees, Jackson made it up to 85, Howell topped out at 86.  We'll see more warm weather tomorrow, but then a low pressure system begins nosing into the area and kicks off some showers and thunderstorms, and then the trailing cold front causes us to get much cooler air on the backside of the system.  Let's look at it...

Here's a look the GFS Model FutureCast for tomorrow at 11 AM EDT.  I could see a couple of scattered showers and storms ongoing at this time, but the bulk of the rain really doesn't work into the area until lunchtime or later.  Out ahead of the purple shading will be instability, some shear, and the other ingredients you need for thunderstorms.  That being said, I think these will strong to marginally severe, with gusty wind, small hail, and some brief downpours to contend with.  The Storm Prediction Center is thinking the same thing...

In addition to the "marginal" risk for all of lower Michigan, the risk extends into Ohio, then back across the Midwest into the Plains, and a smaller "marginal" risk area is identified for the northeastern quarter of Colorado.

DEFINITELY SOME RAINDROPS:  The next five days in Michigan will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  After tomorrow though, anything we see will be a pop-up and not have a lot of moisture available to drop big rains.  Have a look at this map from the Weather Prediction Center:

A half-inch is about all this map calls for.  There is a one inch bullseye up near the Port Huron/Sarnia, Ontario area, and a small finger of half-inch rains possible down by Benton Harbor.

COOL IT DOWN & CLEAR IT:  Once we get through tomorrow and into say, Monday afternoon, with the low and associated cold front pulling away from us, we'll see winds turning more west-northwest, and some milder air working into the area.  Starting Tuesday, daytime highs should top out at 81 or below!  That will feel refreshing after upper 80's with heat index values well into the 90's!

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, some could be marginally severe.  The next chance for rain comes in the form of some scattered showers and perhaps a roaming storm toward the weekend.

Here's the forecast for South Central Michigan:

Tonight - Clear skies early and seasonably mild.  Clouds filter in late, a morning shower or storm could pop, with lows near 64.

Sunday - Mainly cloudy, some showers and storms in the morning, with perhaps a break and then a second round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  These could be marginally severe, main threats gusty wind, small hail, heavy downpours.  High 83.

Sunday Night - Showers and storms ongoing around sunset, then they start to taper off.  Slowly clearing, lows roll back to 62.

Monday - Some lingering clouds and still seasonably warm, high 84.

Tuesday - Sunny skies and cooler, high 79.

Wednesday - Clear and comfortable, high 81.

Thursday - Mainly sunny skies, a couple of passing clouds, high 80.

Friday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, continued mild.  We can't rule out a PM shower or stray thunderstorm.  High 78.

Saturday - Partly sunny, still the mention of a possible later day shower or isolated storm.  High 80.

There's your forecast for the next week.  I hope that you have a great one!

Risk Slides Southwest...

Good Morning!

Another change in the severe weather maps today, one that benefits South Central Michigan.

Almost all of the blog area has been trimmed OUT of the Moderate risk area for severe weather today.  As I alluded to earlier this morning, it appeared to be that the better dynamics were going to be a bit removed from our area, and the new Storm Prediction Center map bears this out:

The only part of the blog that is still in the Moderate risk is extreme southwest Branch County.  Good news for sure.

NOT SO FAST:  Please understand that there is still a risk for severe weather in the area - Enhanced to be exact.  What I can say is that we now expect a threat that is more based on damaging straight-line wind and hail that is quarter sized or larger,  We still need to keep an eye out for storms that could rotate and drop a tornado though.  I fully expect some rowdy thunderstorms in the area sometime after 3 PM EDT today.

The best dynamics for sever weather, and consequently, the strongest storms will be over northwestern Illinois.  There is a 1 in 10 chance for a significant tornado in that part of the world, so if you know people in that area, be aware.  A slightly less risky setup is expected over the Chicago area, but you'll still want to let friends and family down there know to be aware.  Same goes for us here.

Forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - AM sunshine, clouds thicken during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be severe.  High 78.

Tonight - Cloudy, showers and storms continue, some will be severe, high winds, hail, heavy rain.  Lows near 63.

Thursday - Storms will have tapered off for the most part, cloudy and cooler.  High 80.

We'll have more for you and update as time permits.  Have a great day!

Watching For Severe - Updated Information

Good Morning!

Looking at some fresh forecast data for you, and there are a few changes of note.  First of all, the Storm Prediction Center has changed the location of the risk areas for tomorrow.  Let's talk about it in detail for you.

MODERATE RISK TRIMMED:  Yesterday, pretty much the entire blog area was in a risk for an "enhanced" or better chance of severe weather.  As you can see, that has changed...

The entire blog area is still in a at least a "slight" risk for severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Here's the breakdown:  Moderate: Branch, Hillsdale, southwestern Lenawee, southwestern Calhoun, extreme southwestern Jackson.  Enhanced: Northeastern Lenawee, most of Jackson, a bit more than half of Washtenaw split by a line drawn northwest to southeast, Eaton, the southwestern two-thirds of Ingham, and extreme southern Clinton.  The "moderate" risk includes Coldwater, Hillsdale, Adrian, Battle Creek, Marshall.  The "enhanced" risk will include Jackson, Ann Arbor, Chelsea, Eaton Rapids, Lansing, Okemos.  Let's talk about what to expect.

AFTERNOON STORMS:  While I cannot rule out the possibility of a shower or thunderstorm earlier in the day, the better organized storms that will bring the severe weather are expected anytime after about three PM.  Here's a look at the Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast for 5 PM EDT:

This is the start of the event, as the heavier storms are just getting across the lake into West Michigan at this point.  The southeasterly track will bring the heavier stuff in by about 9 PM into South Central Michigan.  I expect sever weather to be a possibility until pre-dawn Thursday morning with the setup in place.  A trough with a low in the base of it will phase up with a a frontal boundary already on the move.  Add to that some robust wind at 5000 feet up (along the order of 50 MPH), from the south-southwest with due west winds higher up than that, and we'll have most of what we need for severe weather. Moisture will not be an issue, with dew point values into the 60's.

WILDCARDS:  I'm thinking that the majority of the area will be dealing with strong straight-line winds and large hail.  I can't rule out a tornado or two, but I really think that the dynamic support for tornadic storms will be better on the Chicago side of Lake Michigan.  We'll have to watch it and see what we get as the day progresses into evening.

I'll have the updated forecast for you later this morning.  Increase your weather awareness today.  Have a plan, be able to get the warnings from the National Weather Service, and execute your plan.

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

Good Morning!

A potentially dangerous weather setup appears to be coming together for tomorrow in South Central Michigan.  Let's get right into the details.

FIRST, TODAY:  We expect mainly clear skies today with readings in the upper 70's and the low 80's with abundant sunshine and west-northwest winds.  Tonight, we'll see readings roll back into the 60's.

THE SHOW TOMORROW:  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a good chunk of Southwest Michigan into a "moderate" risk of severe weather.  Here's the map:

We'll have a better handle on the specific risks later today, but just know that the Storm Prediction Center believes there is an almost even money chance of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.  This means large hail, damaging wind, and supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,

PLAYERS IN THE GAME:  Let's take a quick look at the the players expected to be on the field for tomorrow.

First, we have a vigorous trough with plenty of energy arriving from the west.  Along with it, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in progress:

Here you see the belt of showers and thunderstorms that the Hi Res NAM forecast model expects to be in the area at around 11 PM tomorrow night.  I'm not saying that the storms will arrive in your area exactly at that time, but I think they won't deviate a lot from that point.  Looking at the air about 5000 feet off the ground, we see robust 40-50 knot winds from the south-southwest with plenty of moisture feeding into that storm complex...

This would be enough to maximize severe weather indexes and create havoc for sure!

We'll have a complete update on it for you later this evening, but for now, stay weather aware and continue to monitor the blog and your preferred source of weather information for updates.