Risk Slides Southwest...

Good Morning!

Another change in the severe weather maps today, one that benefits South Central Michigan.

Almost all of the blog area has been trimmed OUT of the Moderate risk area for severe weather today.  As I alluded to earlier this morning, it appeared to be that the better dynamics were going to be a bit removed from our area, and the new Storm Prediction Center map bears this out:

The only part of the blog that is still in the Moderate risk is extreme southwest Branch County.  Good news for sure.

NOT SO FAST:  Please understand that there is still a risk for severe weather in the area - Enhanced to be exact.  What I can say is that we now expect a threat that is more based on damaging straight-line wind and hail that is quarter sized or larger,  We still need to keep an eye out for storms that could rotate and drop a tornado though.  I fully expect some rowdy thunderstorms in the area sometime after 3 PM EDT today.

The best dynamics for sever weather, and consequently, the strongest storms will be over northwestern Illinois.  There is a 1 in 10 chance for a significant tornado in that part of the world, so if you know people in that area, be aware.  A slightly less risky setup is expected over the Chicago area, but you'll still want to let friends and family down there know to be aware.  Same goes for us here.

Forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - AM sunshine, clouds thicken during the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be severe.  High 78.

Tonight - Cloudy, showers and storms continue, some will be severe, high winds, hail, heavy rain.  Lows near 63.

Thursday - Storms will have tapered off for the most part, cloudy and cooler.  High 80.

We'll have more for you and update as time permits.  Have a great day!