Winter STILL Hangin' Tough...

Good Morning!

Temperatures were able to moderate yesterday with clearing skies and a more west to east zonal flow over the US yesterday.  Changes are on the way once again however.  At this hour, we note some showers and thunderstorms making their way out of Alabama into Georgia and Florida, a small unruly mob of thunderstorms in northeast Texas, and our next weather maker generating some snow and other things across the Plains and into Colorado and Wyoming.  One deeper dive coming up!

SUMMARY:  With winds turning more zonal and westerly, we got to see a brief bit of warming with the whole upper air wind setup flattening out from the ridge/trough that we were under for the last few days.  The more zonal flow pushed the cold air back north for awhile.  Don't get used to it though, more cold air returns over the next 24 hours as ridge/trough reorganizes itself.  Our temperatures will settle in the upper 30's, then as the new week approaches, we get to and stay above 40 for a few days in a row for the first time in quite awhile.  Things definitely start to feel more seasonable and spring-like, with the GFS forecast model suggesting 50's by next weekend.  Won't that be nice?

PRECIPITATION:  Primarily small chances of snow for the next few days, out best chance comes Monday as a storm tracks out of the Plains south of us, but close enough that we may pick up some snow from a sideswipe by that system.  After that, hopefully we can start working toward eliminating the S word from the forecasts until next cold season.  This is Michigan though, and you can expect some snow in April.  We're looking pretty dry thereafter until the weekend, when we'll put in a mention of some scattered rain showers assuming that the highs near or above 50 verify.

Clouds in the area right now, I expect those to remain in place and slowly increase as we wrok through the balance of the day and into tomorrow.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Gilletts Lake;

This afternoon, mainly cloudy with maybe a peek of sun, not as mild as Friday, high 36.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, lows roll back to 23, wind NW 5-8 MPH.

Sunday, cloudy skies, perhaps a stray afternoon flurry, high 38, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday night, continued cloudy, chilly, lows near 23, wind N 7-14 MPH.

Monday, cloudy skies, the south zone of the blog will have a 50/50 shot at some light snow, accumulations up to 2" are possible.  near the I-96 corridor and points north, flurries or light snow, accumulations up to 1". High 40.  Winds turning NE 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday, continued cloudy, some lingering flurries possible, high 41.

There's a look at your forecast through Tuesday, I plan to have more details and your complete six day forecast later.  Blessings.

Spring Sprung Away...

Good Morning.

Spring still is nowhere in sight.  We have cold, gray conditions with periods of snow from the lake-effect snow machine persisting at this hour.  Here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing those snow bands...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

Let's dive right into it and see what we have going on for the next several days:

SUMMARY:  Not a whole lot changes for the next few days.  Cold Canadian air is firmly entrenched over us, northwesterly flow off Lake Michigan brings lake effect snow, not much beyond a dusting to minimal accumulation in this area, heavier as you get to US-131 and points west.  Allegedly, Friday and Saturday should see a break from the snow, but with scattered clouds hanging around, I think we still have a shot at more flurries, so I will leave that on the table for the moment, at least through Friday morning.  Perhaps we can revisit that and lift a mention of snow out of the picture for awhile.  Temperatures stay chilly into early next week, and we don't get anywhere close to average until the latter part of the week.  Average high this time of year is 49 degrees, and you can forget about that for awhile, I'm afraid to say.

SNOW:  Still too cold to change this section to precipitation or rain.  Not a whole lot going on besides what we've seen the last couple of days, with the lake effect snow banding bringing snow, then a break with maybe a peek of sunshine.  Forecast models typically don't do well in this kind of a setup much beyond telling you that "I think it will snow."  That's why I am keeping a mention of flakes around for a bit longer than the models are saying.  The good news is that after Saturday we should have a break in this pattern and variable clouds.  Early next week a surface low south us, through southern Indiana and Ohio.  I don't think we get anything out of that judging on what's out there data wise today, but I'll check it again and see if the forecast data starts pushing the track further north.  If it does, watch for snow next week.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing even close to us the next three days.  A small pocket out where you'd expect it this time of year, TX/OK.  I will say that if you are traveling down to the Gulf Coast and Deep South on the 23rd, watch yourself.  The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a shot at severe weather all the way from Florida to Texas along the Gulf, and that extends a couple of hours inland across the board.  Here's the map:

Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook - Valid 8 AM Saturday March 23rd\

We'll keep an eye on that and see what SPC thinks about the situation in the next day or so.

Here's a look at the cold air hanging tough throughout a good chunk of the nation:

And the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Sandstone Township goes like this:

Today, cloudy, continued cold, periods of flurries or light snow will persist, with a maybe peek of sun between snow bands - little to no snow accumulation expected.  High only 32, wind WNW 7-14 MPH, brings wind chills into the mid 20's.

Tonight, clouds linger, along with the lake effect snow bands, nighttime low 18, wind W 5-10 MPH, wind chills around 10.

Friday, still more lake-effect flurries, mainly cloudy, but a few more breaks in the clouds, a touch milder, high 34, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, flurries should taper off, leaving some passing clouds, cold, lows roll back to near 20, wind chills to around 14.  Wind N 6-12 MPH.

Saturday, mainly clear skies, milder, high 41.

Sunday, sunny to start, then increasing clouds with a chance of some flurries late, not as mild, high 36.

Monday, cloudy skies, the pattern from the prior week returns with some flurries or a bit of light snow possible, high 40.

Tuesday, continued cloudy, more flurries or light snow, high 41.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, milder, high 43.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Winter Still Doesn't Want To Go Away...

Good Afternoon!

It has been a busy couple of days off from giving you the weather but there are things going on outside of the blog that I needed to attend to.  I have a couple of them done, but I expect that I will have to take another day or two off here in the next week or so.  The good news is that I expect to have things taken care of so I can be in position to do this for you come severe weather season.  Let's take a closer peek at this gray and dreary that is outdoors right now.

SUMMARY:  A surface low up in Wisconsin coupled with a bit of an upper disturbance just to the south of us over northern Indiana and into Ohio brings us plenty of clouds and some snow.  I expect the snow to accumulate a bit here in south central Michigan, and of course the lake-effect snow machine is cranked up again, with as much as four inches possible west of US-131.  A Lake Effect Snow Advisory is actually up for Kalamazoo and points west, all the way to the lake shore.  We will stay in this pattern for the next few days, so unfortunately, winter is NOT through with us here yet.

TEMPERATURES:  No sustained warmth until the weekend.  Currently the GFS forecast model likes 38 for a high on Friday, but that is still about 10 degrees below where we should be this time of year, as the average high is right around 47.  A trough that has settled in over the area holds temperatures down with northerly flow until Friday.  In the near term, we stay within an arm's length of freezing the next three days.  The up side is mid 40's into the weekend and early next week, maybe FINALLY some seasonable weather that lasts more than a day or two!

SNOW:  I guess you kind of know where my thinking is going regarding the forecast if I didn't put the word precipitation to start this section of my blog post.  For the next several days, all I am seeing is snow or the possibility thereof.  Forecast modeling is saying that we could see some rain late tonight or pre-dawn Tuesday, but I just don't buy it.  At best I would throw in a mention of some sleet or freezing rain.  Some places in the blog should already have around an inch or a little more on the ground, and I expect to add just a bit more to that over the next day or so, perhaps half to three-quarters of an inch as you get away from the US-131 corridor.  The good news is that once we get through tonight and into tomorrow, we should see the snow chances diminish sharply, and we'll just keep the cold around.

Here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:

Remember that all of this you are looking at is SNOW.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Liberty Township:

Today, cloudy, chilly, periods of light snow, perhaps an additional half-inch of accumulation until midnight, high only 31, winds turning SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, continued cloudy and cold, some lingering flurries, perhaps a bit of sleet or freezing rain as well, low 21, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow, cloudy, not much change in temperature, high 33, wind W 10-20 MPH.

I will have more info for you later this evening.  Have a wonderful rest of your day!