Late Summer Sunshine...

Good Morning!

A very cool night in South Central Michigan last night, with most places dipping into the 40's!
Definitely some shades of autumn for us temperature-wise.  Can you believe that we are only about three weeks away from Labor Day and the unofficial end of summer?  Depressing though it is, the time has FLOWN!  Let's pop the hood and see what we have running in there for the next few days...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures continue to run a few degrees below normal with the big ridge/trough setup.  The good news is that we don't have any significant disturbances sliding down the back of the ridge and coming into the area.  Cool Canadian air stays with us for the next few days, with a gradual warm-up starting early next week, bringing 80's back to the area for the weekend.  Nighttime lows will moderate and stay in the low to mid 50's after we get through tonight.

RAIN:  Rain chances stay fairly low right through the forecast window, with perhaps a couple of widely scattered showers tomorrow and again on Tuesday.  No good soakers coming into the area that I can see right now, these will be hit or miss deals with plenty of spacing between showers.  Here's the National Weather Service 5 day precipitation outlook...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

That forecast looks right in the ballpark to me, not much of any rain in the area the next five days.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not much to talk about regarding any rough weather, Michigan is under a "general" risk for garden variety thunderstorms tomorrow, and that's about it for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  In fact, after today, no formal severe risks are mentioned anywhere in the US.

Plenty of blue skies with just some high wispy cirrus on the visible satellite image at this hour, and the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is sound asleep with nothing to see.

Visible Satellite

RACECast:  You've got a great day to watch the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series just southeast of Jackson at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, here's what I expect for today out there - the race starts at 12:49 EDT...

Enjoy the Race!

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

For today, sunny, comfortable, perhaps just a few high clouds, high 74, winds NW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight, mostly starry skies, not quite as cool, nighttime lows roll back to 47, winds NW calm to 5 MPH.

Sunday, partly to mostly sunny starting out, clouds increase throughout the day with the chance of an isolated shower, a bit warmer, high 76, winds N 3 to 5 MPH.

Sunday night, more clouds than stars, we still keep the chance of an isolated or widely scattered stray shower, lows roll back to 48, winds N calm to 5 MPH.

Back to work on Monday, periods of clouds and sunshine, still a small chance of just a stray shower, high 72.

Tuesday, partly sunny, high 73.

Wednesday, skies clear, becoming mostly sunny and pleasant, high 75.

Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 77.

Friday, mostly sunny skies, warming a bit more, high 80.

There's your six day outlook, I do hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Saturday

Good Morning!

I am finishing the forecast discussion, here's my forecast for today...

We've got a great day in store, the discussion will spell it all out for you.

RACECast For Saturday

The final races of the season here in Michigan this weekend at beautiful Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, here's your outlook:

If you're a racing fan, this is a Winner's Circle special!  Green flag drops at 12:49 EDT.

*DISCLAIMER:  NASCAR and Camping World are the owners of their respective logos and trademarks.  No challenge to copyright or ownership is expressed or implied.

Nighttime Peek

I'm working on the forecast discussion, but here's how your night stacks up...

Get a blanket for tonight!

Quick Look For Friday....

Good Morning!

Here's today's outlook:

Complete discussion later!

Sunny Start, Stormy Later, Cooler Night...

Hello Again!

We start the day with sunny skies, but then showers and some thunderstorms move in ahead of a cold front that will knock temperatures back into the lower 70's for the next couple of days.  Speaking of temperatures, I busted on the forecast high temperature yesterday.  I called for 78, we made it to 83 in Jackson.  We got more afternoon sunshine and heating than I expected, and that touched off some isolated storms in the blog area.  Darn.  Some talking points to discuss, let's pop the hood...

TEMPERATURES:  Warm and summery today in advance of a cold front that is currently kicking up a fuss in Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with a line of thunderstorms moving due east.  Here it is on the NEXRAD radar composite...

NEXRAD Reflectivity Mosaic

It will get more humid as the day progresses, with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60's this afternoon.  On the back side of the cold front, temperatures much cooler, not getting above 75 until Tuesday with northwesterly flow, and staying below 80 for the next week or better, dry with low humidity as well.  You'll feel the cool air coming in from Canada as the nation comes under the influence of a high amplitude ridge/trough pattern.  The GFS computer model is suggesting a high of 68 for tomorrow!  Talk about a fall preview...

RAIN:  Showers and thunderstorms on tap for the area this afternoon.  Best guess for timing suggests that we should see a fairly organized line of storms in the area between after lunch and the drive home from work.  We'll keep those storms around into the evening until we lose the daytime heat and the atmosphere stabilizes itself.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service precipitation forecast for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see the NWS has dialed back the rainfall prediction for the next five days, with most areas picking up about a half inch and that's it.  For my money, that half inch looks about right.

SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center has about the south half of lower Michigan with a "slight" risk of severe weather today, that risk goes southwest, encompassing all of Indiana, then doglegging a bit into Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  Here's a look at that map...

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

The main threat for any storms that make it to severe status is wind and hail.  After today, nothing severe expected around here.

The infrared satellite shows plenty of cloud cover associated with the storm system moving in, and the latest image from Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar shows those showers and storms out over Lake Michigan.  Here's those for you...

Infrared Satellite Image

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

Here's your local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Grass Lake...

Today starts sunny, increasing clouds and humidity as the day progresses, showers and thunderstorms develop later, some of these could be severe, high 84, winds SW 9-15 MPH.

Tonight, showers and storms start tapering off around bedtime, becoming cooler, lows down to 55, winds turn NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, chance of a lingering shower, high 71.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, starry skies, unseasonably cool, lows all the way down to 43.  Winds NW 2-5 MPH.

Saturday, a mostly sunny day with a few clouds, high 73.

Sunday, sunshine and a bit warmer, an isolated shower is possible, high 75.

Monday, partly cloudy skies, seasonable, high 75.

Tuesday, the cloud and sun mixture remains, high 75.

Wednesday, partly sunny, warmer, high 78.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day!  Blessings.
RACECast this afternoon or evening!

Quick Look For Thursday...

Good Morning!

Here's my forecast for today...some of these storms could be severe.

Full details and discussion coming soon!

Wednesday Winner...Cooling For The Weekend

Good Morning!

After an unusually hectic day for a weekday, I am back with a full discussion and forecast for you.

Seasonably warm today and tomorrow, then cooling with broken sunshine the next few days, but the warm weather isn't quite done with us just yet.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures warm well into the 70's today with an 80 or two around the area not out of the question.  After that, a cold front moves through tomorrow evening, causing temperatures to drop, with daytime highs at or below 75.  That regime stays around for a refreshing race weekend, then we warm back up into late-summer temperatures.

RAIN:  The best chance for rain comes tomorrow afternoon into early Friday.  Computer modeling agrees we'll pick up some rain between Thursday after lunch and pre-dawn Friday, but when it shows up is a different story.  For now, I am forecasting a few scattered showers moving in around mid-afternoon, with increasing coverage by dinnertime, and staying with us through the evening.  These should start to head out during the overnight hours, leaving a cool autumn-like start to the day on Friday.  Let's take a look at the five-day precipitation map...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall of around half to three-quarters of an inch over the next five days, and the data I have looked at suggests that's in the ballpark.  The cold front moving through sets up coverage that is at least somewhat uniform, but no one place is guaranteed to see exactly half an inch or exactly three-quarters of an inch.  Your mileage will vary.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Michigan gets in on the severe weather threat, but well-removed from here, at least initially.  Today, severe weather is possible in the western half of the Upper Peninsula, with a general risk for about 40% of the Lower Peninsula.  Tomorrow, the entire state is under a general risk of storms, with Branch, Hillsdale, and a sliver of southern Calhoun counties in the slight risk area.  Any storms that make it to severe will see damaging wind as the primary threat, with perhaps a small risk of severe hail.  Here's a look at the maps for today and tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.  These are valid each day at 7AM EDT...

SPC Day 1 Forecast

SPC Day 2 Forecast

Not much on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, except for a lot of ground clutter and some light showers over Lake Michigan.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies around south central Michigan right now on the infrared satellite image, those will give way to sun with some scattered clouds later.

Infrared Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Napoleon:

For today, mostly sunny with some scattered clouds, seasonably warm, high 78, winds WNW 
3-8 MPH.

Tonight, mainly starry skies with a cloud or two passing by, lows roll back to 59, winds W 3-6 MPH.

Tomorrow, sunny to start, clouds increase during the day, scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, high 81, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow night, showers and storms start tapering off around bedtime, cooler after that, nighttime lows down to 55, winds WNW 5-10 MPH.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, chance of a lingering shower, high 71.

Saturday, a mix of sun and clouds, high 73.

Sunday, clouds still pass by from time to time, some sunshine and a bit warmer, an isolated shower is possible, high 75.

Monday, the pattern continues, partly cloudy skies, seasonable, high 75.

Tuesday, the cloud and sun mixture remains, high 75.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Wednesday.  We'll have a RACECast for you tomorrow!  Blessings.

Wednesday Outlook...

Hello Hump Day Wednesday!

A nice late-summer day is on tap for South Central Michigan, get out and enjoy some of it!  Here's my forecast...

Full forecast and discussion on the way!

Outlook For Tonight...

Good Afternoon!

I'll have to try to squeeze out a discussion later this evening, but for now, here's my forecast...

Details tonight!

Quick Morning Look...

Good Morning!

The complete six day forecast and discussion are on the way, but here's how your day stacks up in Jackson and surrounding areas:

Have a great day!

Early Evening Update...

Good Evening...

With an opportunity to look at some fresh data, some changes are in order.  First the big one, with no even short periods of sun this afternoon in the area, 77 is not going to happen.  We'll finish the day with a high of 72.  Scattered shower activity is lurking in the area right now.  Here's a look at the updated Grand Rapids NEXRAD image.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

As you can see, some areas are having, or will soon have a wet commute home.  I do have to say that I think the rain is more widely scattered than this radar image indicates.  As you get further away from Grand Rapids, the radar is shooting a few thousand feet up in the air as opposed to close to earth, so some of the blue return isn't even hitting the ground.

We'll keep temperatures cool tonight, then we actually do see low or mid 70's for tomorrow.

I'll have more for you later!

Cloudy, Cooler, More Damp...

Hello Again!

TEMPERATURES:  We see temperatures in the 70's until midweek, when an 80 or two is likely in the area.  Modeling indicates that the late summer/early fall regime should hold for the next several days, with temperatures running a bit below normal.  The ridge trough pattern continues, and with it, cool Canadian air.  A series of shortwave disturbances work into and through the troughs, bringing rain chances.  Cooler conditions as well, with forecast modeling suggesting 60's next week.

RAIN:  The National Weather Service is predicting that we'll see rainfall totals around an inch for most areas in the blog for the next five days, and that looks about right.  Wednesday looks to be the only really dry day of the next several, with the chance of scattered showers or a roaming thunderstorm every day except Wednesday.  Here's a look at that five day forecast map for you...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

This looks about right for the next few days, the data I have looked at doesn't suggest that the rain amounts are out of line.  If anything, what you'll see is heavier rain centered in a track from southwest to northeast, so the west end of the South zone gets a good soaking (Branch, Calhoun, northwest Jackson), then that tracks up and  through the east end of the North zone (Shiawassee, Livingston).

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not much of that in the outlook for south central Michigan.  The Storm Prediction Center has us under just a general risk of thunderstorms for the next two days, with a slight risk well south today and into Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia tomorrow.

The Grand Rapids NEXRAD has some shower activity on it, that will make it's way in here as the day progresses.  It's not as organized as it was earlier this morning, so coverage will be uneven, as is typical this time of year.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD

The visible satellite is cloudy as all get out, as this current system tracks through the area.

Visible Satellite Image

Today, mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, perhaps a buried thunderstorm, high 77, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, more scattered showers, cloudy, low 57, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, clouds stay with us for much of the day, along with some lingering scattered showers, high 75, winds NW 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday night, clouds finally thin out and depart, leaving it mainly clear late, low of 55, winds N 5-9 MPH.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a very small chance of an isolated shower, breezy, high 76.

Thursday, partly sunny, breezy, warmer, a widely scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm is possible later in the day, high 79.

Friday, cloudy, a chance of some scattered showers, cooler, high 73.

Saturday, partly cloudy skies, we still can't eliminate the chance of a few scattered midday showers, high 73.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Monday Outlook...

Good Morning!

Here's how your Monday looks, full discussion and forecast later!

Warmer With More Rain...

Hello Again!

Plenty of sun on tap for today before clouds start to roll in ahead of a system that will touch off some precipitation.  Let's take a look under the hood and see what's running:

TEMPERATURES:  After plenty of needed and beneficial rain, we get a break and some warming.  Temperatures today return to more seasonable levels, with mid to upper 70's and perhaps an 80 or two for daytime highs through midweek, with temperatures falling back into the 58-65 range during the night for the next few days.

RAIN:  More on the way, and we'll take it.  Showers and perhaps a storm or two starting late Monday and going through Tuesday.  In fact, each day this week a chance at some showers is on the table.  Too late to do anything about the boosting the fall harvest unfortunately, but still needed and a benefit nonetheless.  Here's the National Weather Service's idea of rain over the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Look at that 1.6 inch bullseye just west of us here in the blog area!  That'll help out a bunch.  Based on what the models are suggesting now, that 1.6 inch total isn't overdone, and rain amounts will taper back toward the one inch mark as you go south.  Modeling is in agreement that a low tracks ENE after it gets to near Kalamazoo midweek.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in the way of organized severe storms for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  There is a "general" risk of garden-variety thunderstorms for the entire state on Monday.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is quiet, the visible satellite image shows clear skies over us right now, but you see the next system to the west that will start working in here this evening into tomorrow...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Spring Arbor and Michigan Center

Today, sunny to start, clouds increase late in the day, high 76, winds W 5-9 MPH.

Tonight, a mix of clouds and stars, some isolated to widely scattered showers are possible, lows roll back to 56, winds WNW 4-8 MPH.

Tomorrow, cloudy skies with showers, perhaps a buried thunderstorm, high 79, winds WSW 7-14 MPH.

Tomorrow night, showers continue, cooler, low 57, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, showers taper off during the morning, then partly sunny, high 75.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, breezy, high 76.

Thursday, cloudy, widely scattered to scattered showers, high 78.

Friday, continued cloudy, still the chance of a widely scattered shower, high 77.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Sunday Looks Good...

Good Morning!

Sunday should be a winner!

Detailed forecast  and discussion on the way!