Sunny Start, Stormy Later, Cooler Night...

Hello Again!

We start the day with sunny skies, but then showers and some thunderstorms move in ahead of a cold front that will knock temperatures back into the lower 70's for the next couple of days.  Speaking of temperatures, I busted on the forecast high temperature yesterday.  I called for 78, we made it to 83 in Jackson.  We got more afternoon sunshine and heating than I expected, and that touched off some isolated storms in the blog area.  Darn.  Some talking points to discuss, let's pop the hood...

TEMPERATURES:  Warm and summery today in advance of a cold front that is currently kicking up a fuss in Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with a line of thunderstorms moving due east.  Here it is on the NEXRAD radar composite...

NEXRAD Reflectivity Mosaic

It will get more humid as the day progresses, with dewpoints climbing into the mid 60's this afternoon.  On the back side of the cold front, temperatures much cooler, not getting above 75 until Tuesday with northwesterly flow, and staying below 80 for the next week or better, dry with low humidity as well.  You'll feel the cool air coming in from Canada as the nation comes under the influence of a high amplitude ridge/trough pattern.  The GFS computer model is suggesting a high of 68 for tomorrow!  Talk about a fall preview...

RAIN:  Showers and thunderstorms on tap for the area this afternoon.  Best guess for timing suggests that we should see a fairly organized line of storms in the area between after lunch and the drive home from work.  We'll keep those storms around into the evening until we lose the daytime heat and the atmosphere stabilizes itself.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service precipitation forecast for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see the NWS has dialed back the rainfall prediction for the next five days, with most areas picking up about a half inch and that's it.  For my money, that half inch looks about right.

SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center has about the south half of lower Michigan with a "slight" risk of severe weather today, that risk goes southwest, encompassing all of Indiana, then doglegging a bit into Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  Here's a look at that map...

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

The main threat for any storms that make it to severe status is wind and hail.  After today, nothing severe expected around here.

The infrared satellite shows plenty of cloud cover associated with the storm system moving in, and the latest image from Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar shows those showers and storms out over Lake Michigan.  Here's those for you...

Infrared Satellite Image

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

Here's your local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Grass Lake...

Today starts sunny, increasing clouds and humidity as the day progresses, showers and thunderstorms develop later, some of these could be severe, high 84, winds SW 9-15 MPH.

Tonight, showers and storms start tapering off around bedtime, becoming cooler, lows down to 55, winds turn NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, chance of a lingering shower, high 71.  Winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, starry skies, unseasonably cool, lows all the way down to 43.  Winds NW 2-5 MPH.

Saturday, a mostly sunny day with a few clouds, high 73.

Sunday, sunshine and a bit warmer, an isolated shower is possible, high 75.

Monday, partly cloudy skies, seasonable, high 75.

Tuesday, the cloud and sun mixture remains, high 75.

Wednesday, partly sunny, warmer, high 78.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day!  Blessings.
RACECast this afternoon or evening!