More Snow...Thanks Lake-Effect....

Good Afternoon...

Some changes have occurred since this morning that have prompted me to change the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

SUMMARY:  The big one is that the lake effect snow that has basically tapered down to almost nothing in some parts of the area will re-intensify as the evening wears on, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a Lake-effect Snow Advisory.  Winds have a bit of a WSW cant to them right now, keeping us fairly snow free.  I expect the winds to turn more due west and increase tonight, as does the NWS, thus pushing the snow bands more directly at us.  Temperatures in the teens will drop down to between 4 and 8 above, wind chills will be in the -10 to -15 range.  Tomorrow, we do see temperatures climb just a bit, and we should see a 19-22 degree high in Jackson.  I should be able to put together a full six day outlook for you tonight.

SNOW:  Our brief break continues until about 4 PM or so, then returning like a bad penny.  If the NWS has it right with their advisory, 2-4" of fresh snowfall on top of the 2-3" we have gotten the last 24-36 hours here in the area.  More blowing and drifting due to winds gusting to 25 MPH or so, and definite freezing of untreated road surfaces.  The NAM forecast model points out an upper disturbance at 700mb, and that's what will bring the winds more westerly and increase them, therefore extending the reach of the lake-effect.  After we get through tonight, we see chances of significant snow going way down until Tuesday of next week.

Here's the updated forecast for Jackson:

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY

For Calhoun, Jackson, Eaton, Ingham, Clinton counties, from 7 PM until 7 AM Saturday.  Wind chills as low as -10, blowing/drifting snow, and new snowfall of 2-4" on top of what we already have will be the issues.

Short Term Forecast - Jackson

Short Term Forecast - Ann Arbor

Short Term Forecast - Lansing

Short Term Forecast - Jackson

PLEASE BE CAREFUL!!!

Just a reminder that the weather situation here has an element of danger and demands your respect and attention while you drive.  Two major pile-ups outside of the Detroit Metro have involved nearly 60 cars and killed four people, injuring many more.  With the lake-effect snow traveling across the entire state, conditions can go from reasonably safe to white out in an instant.  Allow extra time and pay attention to changingt conditions this evening and tomorrow!

WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS ISSUED...

Good Morning!

Plenty of winter weather related stuff from the National Weather Service to share with you.  Here it goes:

Lake Effect Snow WARNING - Calhoun County thru 1 PM tomorrow.  5-10" of new snow possible during the next 24 hours.  Blowing/drifting and wind chills of -10 or below will be factors.

Lake Effect Snow ADVISORY - Eaton, Jackson, Ingham, Clinton, Livingston, Washtenaw Counties thru 1 PM tomorrow. 2-5" of new snow possible, Blowing/drifting and wind chills up to -10 will be factors.

NOTE:  Technically Livingston and Washtenaw are under a Winter Weather Advisory issued by NWS Detroit for up to 3" of snow produced by lake-effect activity from Lake Michigan, I lumped them in under the advisory as the lake-effect is what's prompting it.

Check NWS Grand Rapids or Detroit for full text of the advisories.

Be careful traveling today and dress warmly!

Wind, Snow, Ice

Good morning, even though there is no official advisory from the National Weather Service with regard to the lake effect snow, you'll need to allow yourself extra time to go to work as the strong wind is pushing some of the lake effect snow bands far enough inland to create problems as far as to Jackson County.

Additionally, the standing water that did not evaporate during the night has frozen to ice creating slippery travel throughout most roads in the area.

Six Day Forecast...

We have given away anywhere from 20 to 30 degrees as compared to our daytime highs the last 48 hours, and we aren't done yet.  The front is working through, and winds will be on the increase as the night progresses.  We'll see temperatures pause in the 20's for awhile, then head down further.  Nighttime lows tomorrow night will be in the single digits, with wind chills dropping as far as -10 or better.

Here's a look at the six day forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Have a great night!

WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED...

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for Lenawee, Washtenaw and Livingston, counties until 12 noon tomorrow.  Wind gusts up to 45 MPH are possible, with sustained wind in excess of 30 MPH.

A Flood Advisory has also been issued in Ingham County for the Sycamore Creek at Holt until tomorrow afternoon.

Another Flood Advisory is in effect in Clinton County for the Maple River affecting Maple Rapids through tomorrow night.

Strong Thunderstorms Moving In.,..Updated

These storms have lost their steam and are not as strong as they were in Indiana.  Moderate to heavy rain now.

Strong Thunderstorms Moving In!

Branch County - You have strong thunderstorms headed at you from Indiana.  They are tracking NE at 65 MPH.  They have a history of lightning, gusty winds, and penny sized hail.  You'll want to head for a sturdy building and let them blow through.  It shouldn't take too long with a 65 MPH ground speed.  Calhoun, Jackson, Hillsdale, these will be an issue for you as well.

Short-Term Forecasts

Here's a look at the short-term forecast for Jackson and Lansing:

It Runs Warm Then Cold...

Good Afternoon!

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today, cloudy skies, scattered showers re-develop as the afternoon progresses, a couple of buried thunderstorms are possible, high 56.  Winds SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

Tonight, numerous showers, a few thunderstorms as well, temperatures don't really move all that much, with lows only dropping back to 50.  Winds SW 10-20 MPH.

Wednesday, more clouds, continued unseasonably mild to start, then temperatures rapidly fall to winter levels.  A few stray showers turn to a few stray flurries by nightfall, high 57, winds swing from SW to W 10-20 MPH.  Your temperatures as you head out to work or school will be around 48 degrees and falling.

Wednesday night, cloudy skies, much colder, nighttime lows struggle to get above 16, winds W 10-20 MPH.  Wind chills will likely be in the single digits.

Thursday, clouds don't go anywhere, seasonably cold, high temperature 22, wind W 8-14 MPH.  Wind chills stay in the teens.

Friday, we keep the cloudy skies around, some flurries or light snow are possible, high 18.

Saturday, periods of clouds, not quite as cold, perhaps some light snow, high 25.

Sunday, partly sunny, high 30.

Monday, partly cloudy, high 32.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  Stay tuned for updates.  Have a great Tuesday!

Big Rain, Big Changes

Good Evening!

Weather extremes on tap over the next day or so, let's get right to it.

SUMMARY:  Tonight, dense fog due to moist air from snow melt, and not very much wind.  Tomorrow, unseasonably warm weather takes hold with temperatures in most areas well into the the 50's.  Showers and the possibility of a few buried thunderstorms are in the mix as well.  Plenty of moisture from rain and snow melt may create some flooding issues.

Here's something you don't see every day.  This is the severe weather outlook map from the Storm Prediction Center.  I typically don't start including these in the forecast summary until spring and summer.  Here it is though, and you see that here in Michigan we have a risk for garden-variety thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook

Looking into the Deep South, the setup favors a significant severe weather event, including severe storms and tornadoes.  Moderate risk for severe weather has already been identified in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

After we get through tomorrow, temperatures start to fall back into the 40's then a temperature free fall with snow for the tail end of the week.  By the time Thursday gets here, we give back 40 degrees of temperature on the thermometer, with daytime highs in the teens, and wind chills in the single digits or colder.  We also replenish the snow that we have melted away too.

PRECIPITATION:  All modes we have had, all modes we will have.  We went from snow to freezing rain and sleet to rain, we go the other way over the next couple of days.  A series of lows invade from the southwest.  We start getting wet tomorrow morning and keep things going, then a second, more intense 988mb low comes through  on Wednesday.  Right behind that, the mercury nosedives, and our rain changes back to a wintry mix then snow.  On top of that, it appears that lake-effect snow will also become part of the mix, with the lake-effect snow machine cranking up again and bringing persistent snows to areas west of US 131.  I am not sure how this will impact us here in south central Michigan at this time.  We'll have to check that with fresh forecast model data.

I will have a complete six day forecast for you later.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY, FLOOD WATCH

Good Evening!

I have been ill with a 101 fever all day, and I am just now feeling well enough to start looking at data.  I am fairly sure that you are aware of these weather alerts, but I will list them anyway.  I also will be looking at data to see what the next day or so will bring us, as it looks like thing could get rough and stormy.

Dense Fog Advisory - Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Lenawee - thru 11 AM Tuesday morning.

Flood Watch - Shiawassee, Branch, Hillsdale, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson, Clinton, Lenawee, Washtenaw - heavy rains combined with rapid snowmelt create potential for flooding.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... 

AT 910 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND OFF OF 
LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR COVERT. THE PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING QUICKLY 
OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAUGATUCK 
TO LANSING THROUGH 1100 PM...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 

THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND 
SLEET AS IT MOVES EAST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
THROUGH 500 AM FOR THIS AREA. 

EXPECT BURSTS OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS WELL AS SOME 
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... 
PAW PAW... HARTFORD... LAWTON... 
SOUTH HAVEN... KALAMAZOO... BATTLE CREEK... 
BELLEVUE... MARSHALL... EATON RAPIDS... 
MASON... LANSING... LESLIE... 
SPRINGPORT... JACKSON... BROOKLYN... 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

BE PREPARED FOR SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIER 
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. ALLOW FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIME TO REACH 
YOUR DESTINATION AS YOU MAY NEED TO SLOW DOWN. 

Thunderstorms Anyone?

I kid you not, thunderstorms are possible:  have a look at this:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD, notice the buried storms in the oval.

Six Day Forecast

I told you that this forecast would see a yo-yo in temperatures:  Spring-like for the early part of the week, back in the freezer by the end of it.  Here's the six day outlook for Jackson and vicinity:

And no I am not making it up - there is a chance of a roaming thunderstorm onTuesday, maybe even early Wednesday.

A Slew Of Weather Advisories

A lot of weather advisories to talk about, we'll go over them here.  We'll start in the South Zone and work north...

Branch County - Winter Winter Advisory for Freezing Rain thru 3 AM Monday morning; Flood Watch until 1/30/13 11 AM.

Hillsdale County - Winter Winter Advisory for Freezing Rain thru 3 AM Monday morning; Flood Watch until 1/30/13 11 AM.

Lenawee County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 4 AM Monday morning

Calhoun County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 5 AM Monday morning

Jackson County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 5 AM Monday morning

Washtenaw County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 4 AM Monday morning

Eaton County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 5 AM Monday morning

Ingham County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 5 AM Monday morning

Livingston County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 6 AM Monday morning

Clinton County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 5 AM Monday morning

Shiawassee County - Winter Weather Advisory thru 6 AM Monday morning

Additionally, if it was not covered in the Winter Weather Advisory, most counties have a Special Weather Statement warning about sleet and freezing rain, and the fact that the precipitation is changing between types.  Temperatures will warm during the overnight, but until we get to that point, expect slick travel and icy conditions.

It's Underway...

Good Evening!

Here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, the precipitation event is underway.  A couple of inches of snow will turn to freezing rain and sleet, then eventually make it to rain as temperatures rise.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity, all of this is still snow at the moment