Snow And Rapid Changes...

Good Morning!

After a busy day working both jobs yesterday, I basically collapsed after getting home.  This morning we have snow greeting us in the area, with most places seeing a couple of inches (or several inches if you're west) on the ground.  Here was my Facebook post from my smartphone last night between jobs:

No updates regarding winter weather alerts at this point but I will say that I expect maybe an inch or so of snow between now and tomorrow. As you head west, that will increase.

That certainly verified in spades.  We have almost 3" on the ground outside my door, and most places are reporting between 2 and 3 inches of new snowfall.  Since I am pressed for time today, here's what we have in a nutshell:

I am working on info for Jackson, Lansing, and Ann Arbor.  Have a good one!

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY

Good Morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Calhoun County starting at 10 pm tonight and running through 7 pm on Saturday night.  Snowfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches total are possible with snow running at an inch per hour snowfall rates at times.

I will have full details on the blog later today.

Quick Look For A-Squared & Lansing

Ok, I didn't forget about you in Lansing and Ann Arbor, here's your forecast:

You'll also see some clouds and maybe a peek of sun as all this rotates through too, but this is the bulk of the day.  Updates this evening!

Fairly Quiet, Brief Rain Or Snow Showers...

Good Morning!

Cloudy and gray to start here in South Central Michigan.  Expect a just a hint of very light snowfall or snow showers today.  We'll dive into some detail for you here, but let's have a look at the radar first to see what's going on:

As you can see, some precipitation is moving through the area.  What you see is very light rain or a wintry mix as long as you stay south of Ithaca and Saginaw.  My guess is quite a bit of that is not even making it to the ground.  North of that line, it's all snow.  A similar situation south, with a mix of precipitation possible, especially around Onsted and Jonesville.  Get a mask and some air on, time to take a deeper dive!

SUMMARY:  Cloudy skies today as a low tracks across north-central Michigan, touching off some light to moderate snow along and north of M-46.  South of that, snow showers or some rain.  The low exits the area during the evening hours, winds swing around to the northwest and pick up just a bit, then the fridge and freezer open up, allowing cold air in from Canada.  Temperatures drop 10-15 degrees across the board in the next 12-24 hours.  Gray and cold for the most part the next few days, then we get to next week, where we have a shot at some snow and possibly rain as well.  See my prior post for detail on that.  Clearing and cool for the middle of next week, then we cloud up and crank up what looks to be a fairly significant storm system near next weekend.

PRECIPITATION:  A little bit of rain or snow shower activity this morning and into the afternoon.  It'll be gone by the evening drive home.  Not much in the area, maybe a coating to an inch in the north zone of the blog, but I really think most of we do get will be liquid or freezing, so slippery roads as night falls are more of a concern.  As winds turn northwesterly off Lake Michigan, the lake-effect snow machine starts up, several inches of snow possible close in to the lake shore starting tomorrow evening.  I don't see that reaching this far inland, we'll check it once the low passes through and the winds shift.  We have to see how the wind field evolves before we start extending lake-effect snow forecasts inland.  In short, after tonight, fairly quiet through the weekend, unless you head west of US 131.

Here's a look at surface temperatures around the US at this hour, and a look at the infrared satellite image, showing the clouds swirling around the center of the low (look at the almost complete circle with Madison, WI near the center part).

US Surface Temperature Plot

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:


Today, cloudy skies, snow showers or a wintry mix developing, high 41, winds SW 7-13 MPH.  Little if any accumulation, slick roads late are a concern.

Tonight, cloudy, precipitation tapering off, colder, lows near 22, winds turning NW 6-12 MPH.

Friday, overcast and gray, chilly, high 30, wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, more lingering clouds, colder, lows, near 14, single digit wind chills possible with NW winds 6-12 MPH.

Saturday, still not much sun, cold.  High 24.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sun, continued chilly, high of 26.

Monday, a bit of early sunshine, then clouds increasing, milder, high 36.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, expect some snow showers, high 36.

Wednesday, partial clearing, colder, high 29.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Model Mischief? Model Mastery?

Good Morning!

We'll have a complete discussion and planner for you a little later.  With respect to the snow and possible storms next week, I can say that we are seeing more data line up into something we can work with.

I'm seeing model agreement on a solution that brings us an event next Monday/Tuesday, with a bigger, meaner one for the end of the week.  The Global Forecast System (GFS) computer model is finally joining the party that the Euro and GEM have been at the last several model runs.  I'm predicting we'll see two low pressure systems phase up over or very close to us, and we'll be looking at some decent precipitation early next week.  The main event should come next Friday, as it looks like we'll take a direct hit from a strong low coming out of the Plains, adding some more snow to the picture.  We'll firm up details on that as the time draws nearer - still plenty of time for significant changes.  Have a look at these maps:

Here's you see the respective model solutions for next Tuesday morning.  If these verify, expect a system that will bring us couple of inches of new snow, maybe a bit of rain and perhaps more.  We will have to see if it holds or shows major changes in future outlooks.

We'll have the planner and forecast up for you later.  Have a great day!

Snow Showers And Such...

Good Evening!

We had a fairly nice day around the area, especially south, with temperatures up near or even past the 40 degree mark.  All of that starts to change as we work through the day tomorrow.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have:

SUMMARY:  One more day of milder than normal temperatures for us tomorrow as the day gets rolling and we get to a high around 41 in the south zone, and 38 in the north zone.  I think we will see a sprinkling of low 40's in a few places north, even if only briefly.  Clouds roll in and wind picks up ahead of a low that should track across the the upper part of the state.  After we get that system out of here, the fridge door opens from Canada and we get some of that Canadian air in here to drop temperatures back to sub-freezing levels for awhile.  Average temperature in this part of the world is around 35 degrees, and we stay below that through next week.  We begin to warm back up early next week, but there's something in the works to potentially coincide with that warm up...

PRECIPITATION:  Not a whole lot to talk about right now, but that will change, especially north.  As low pressure moves in tonight, we see a chance at some light snow or snow showers, especially in the north zone of the blog.  That precipitation could be here as early as morning drive, but for my money, I think we see that after work and school are underway, in a window from perhaps 9 AM to 2 PM tomorrow.  This isn't a washout or heavy snow event, but just bear it in mind.  I would also keep an eye out for some freezing rain right now.  That leaves by tomorrow night, and then we stay fairly quiet until next week.  Let's take a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the next five days:

National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast

We note a couple of six-tenths of an inch of liquid bullseyes along the lake shore, so we'll need to see how strong our northwest winds are to determine if that suggested lake-effect snow will come a ways inland.  That is connected with a system that is forecast to move in on Monday evening into Tuesday.  I'll have to keep an eye on this system, as a couple of possibilities are on the table.  One is two low pressure centers, one just into Canada, another in the ArkLaTex, and they kind of do their own thing, we get "sandwiched" a bit and pick up some precipitation.  The other scenario is the same two lows in roughly the same places, but the southerly low turns a bit more northeast, then they phase up very near us, creating a much more intense storm.

Here's a look at the radar composite, and that shows you what's headed this way for tomorrow...

Now let's have a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Grass Lake:

Tonight, increasing clouds, perhaps a stray flurry late, low 27, winds SW 5-15 MPH.

Thursday, cloudy skies, snow showers or a wintry mix developing, high 41, winds SW 7-13 MPH.

Thursday night, cloudy skies, precipitation tapers off, colder, lows near 22, winds turning NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday, overcast and gray, colder, high 29, wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, clouds stay with us, colder still, lows, near 14, wind chills in the single digits are possible with winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, mostly cloudy, chilly, high 24.

Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued chilly with a high of 26.

Monday, a few peeks of sunshine, then clouds increasing, milder high 36.

Tuesday, snowshowers, cloudy, high 36.

Wednesday, some clearing skies, colder, high 29.

There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great night!

Quick Nighttime Look...

Good Evening!

Here's a look at the forecast for tonight in the big three of the blog.  I am working on detailed discussion as we speak:

More to come soon...

Just A Touch Of Variety...

Good Morning!

Well, time to own up to a busted forecast.  Where did the snow come from?  Simple.  Air aloft at or below freezing, strong winds mixing that all the way down to the surface, and voila!  I had precipitation in the forecast, but I wasn't thinking it would be the frozen variety.  Nuts.  Next?

SUMMARY:  Cloudy skies right now, they stay that way for the most part today, I don't see any snow falling today that amounts to anything, but we can't rule out a stray flurry or two.  We'll keep the temperatures above average, hovering right around the 40 degree mark.  After Thursday, things cool down again as we get some chilly Canadian air in here; readings do not even break 30 for the weekend.  Next week we get back into the mid to upper 30's part of the thermometer, and stay around there for a bit, but then changes may be in the offing...

PRECIPITATION:  Not much going on in the immediate future, maybe some stray flurries or a lonely shower tomorrow.  Thursday a more substantial chance at some rain as a low walks across the northwest part of Michigan up by Cadillac and Traverse City.  Some light rain or snow shower activity is a safe bet, I don't see it amounting to a whole lot though.  I'm thinking more so rain since we'll be on the "warm" side of that system, but I'll need to see some air temperature plots to solidify that.  The National Weather Service 5 day forecast backs that up...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

LOOKING AHEAD:  Let me preface this by saying that this part of the forecast I don't do very often just because of the uncertainty of it all this far out.  Have a look at this ONE model, the GFS, Tuesday afternoon at 1 PM.

Global Forecast System Forecast Map Valid Tuesday 1 PM

That being said, a couple of the computer forecast models are toying with a storm for us next week.  I see two takers on that notion, and a third is sniffing around the idea.  Remember, this is just an idea, and I am NOT predicting anything yet.  We will see.

Let's bring it closer to home and have a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Michigan Center...

This afternoon, cloudy skies, seasonable, perhaps a few flurries or a light shower, high 34, wind SW 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, perhaps a bit of clearing later, low 21.  Wind SW 3-7 MPH.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, milder, high 38.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday night, some stars, clouds thicken as the night progresses, lows near 26, wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, cloudy skies, some scattered showers or perhaps snow showers high 40.

Friday, cloudy and colder, high 31.

Saturday, cloudy skies, even colder, light snow possible, high only 26.

Sunday, clouds thin as the day progresses, high 27.

Monday, partly cloudy skies, not as cold, high 37.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Monday...

Good Morning!

Back to work, gray and windy!  Here's the short term forecast for Lansing, Jackson, and Ann Arbor:

And here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD, showing some light rain showers and a bit of snow mixed in with that up near White Cloud and Big Rapids.

Please let me know what you think about the graphics refresh that I did.  Have a great day!

UPDATED FORECASTS

We have updated the forecasts to include the Wind Advisory that will be in effect for tomorrow:

WIND ADVISORY ISSUED

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for every county in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone for tomorrow.  They are advising that southwest winds will increase to 20-30 MPH with gusts as high as 45 MPH.  Here's the rundown:

Jackson, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Branch and Hillsdale counties, your advisory is from 7 AM to 9 PM EST.

Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston and Shiawassee counties, your advisory is from 7 AM to 10 PM EST.

Use caution if driving a high profile vehicle, and secure or bring inside anything you don't want to go looking for!

Short Term Forecasts

Here's a look at the short-term forecasts for the big three in the blog!  Detailed forecast is below in a prior post:

Have A Great Day!

Rainy, Then Some Of This And That...

Good Afternoon!

We are seeing temperatures slowly climb as the day progresses, we're also seeing rain showers develop to the west of us, they are just now filtering onshore into Michigan.  Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar and you'll see them:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

If we take a look at the Midwest NEXRAD composite image, you'll see a lot of precipitation headed this way, with just a hint of some freezing rain, shown in pink across the area.  Off to the northwest, across Minnesota and Wisconsin, plenty of snow as a surface low drags a storm system into that part of the world...

Midwest NEXRAD Composite Image

SUMMARY:  Taking a look at surface temperatures across the nation, you see where warm southerly flow is pushing toward us...

We're already in the lower 30's in most spots throughout the area, I think we add a few more degrees to that until the rain and such gets here later this evening.  Readings are already in the mid to upper 30's just over the border in Indiana, and that air is elbowing it's way north.  Temperatures only dip slightly this evening, before we get right back into upper 30's/low 40's readings for tomorrow, and along with that, precipitation.

Average temperature is right around freezing this time of the year in the area, so we do run above that for a couple of days, and then a cold front treks back in here in time for the weekend, dropping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees, and bringing us a shot at some fresh snow.

PRECIPITATION:  As a surface low tracks through Minnesota and Wisconsin, eventually affecting the Upper Peninsula, we stay on the warm side of the system with southerly flow,  so we get rain.  Let's take a look at the next 5 days of precipitation according to the National Weather Service:

National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast, valid thru 7 AM EST Friday

That half to three-quarters of an inch of water will be mostly that, and not snow thankfully this go-round.  This map is showing, and I concur, higher amounts of precipitation are expected to be north of I-96.  Two systems get us this week.  One today and into tomorrow, bringing the previously mentioned rain.  The lion's share of our 5 day precipitation comes from this system.  Another one moves through later this week, and brings us more liquid falling from the sky, this time in frozen form, so we get snow.  Looking at it this early, I do not expect any heavy-duty accumulations, perhaps a couple of inches of new snow on the high side, more as you get closer to Lake Michigan.  We'll see if my read is accurate and holds, as we get closer to the latter part of the week.

After we get the second system through here, back to more typical winter weather.  The freezer door stands wide open, and cold polar air drops into the region from Canada.  We then get some upper disturbances (Alberta Clippers) moving through the larger flow, kicking off some lake-effect snows.  GFS forecast modeling is persistent with a chance of lake effect snow every day from say, Wednesday on, and I can buy that at least until Friday.

Now then, a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas:

This afternoon, cloudy, a bit of freezing rain changes over, becoming scattered to numerous showers later, high 40.  Wind SSE 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers persist, perhaps some freezing rain in the mix and slick spots in any case due to iced over roads, low's roll back to 33 with wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

Monday, overcast skies, more scattered shower activity, this should diminish after lunch, high 40, wind WSW 8-16 MPH.

Monday night, continued cloudy, colder, nighttime lows roll back to 22, winds W 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, mainly cloudy but some clearing as the day progresses, high more seasonable, around 34.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, partly to mainly sunny and milder, high 40.

Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun, perhaps a chance of some scattered afternoon showers, continued seasonably mild, high 40.

Friday, mainly cloudy skies and much cooler, some scattered rain and snow showers, high 26.

Saturday, cloudy skies, cold, a chance of some light snow, high only 24.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement for Calhoun, Jackson, Clinton, Eaton and Ingham Counties.

Freezing rain or drizzle is possible until about 3 PM as temperatures start to warm above freezing ahead of some rain working into the area.  After that, it will become all rain.  Use caution if traveling for the next few hours, and again tonight as wet surfaces, especially those untreated, along with bridges and overpasses could ice up.