Thunderstorm Watch

Good Afternoon!

Just a quick post so you can see the detail of the watch.  I don't know why the county shading is incorrect for Michigan, but from what I have read, Branch and Hillsdale counties are STILL IN PLAY for the watch until 8 PM.  Here's the graphic.

The yellow shaded counties, plus Branch and Hillsdale are under this watch until 8 PM EDT.

Stay close to a good source of warning infomation.  Hail and high wind are the main threats with these guys.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, BRANCH, HILLSDALE, LENAWEE, WASHTENAW

The National Weather Service has issued the following:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MI
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH               HILLSDALE           LENAWEE
MACOMB               MONROE              OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR            WASHTENAW           WAYNE

Stay close to a good source of warning information this afternoon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, SOUTH ZONE

The National Weather Service has issued some Special Weather Statements for developing thunderstorms in southwest and South Central Michigan - Pay attention and heed this advice if you see threatening skies!

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. MOST
STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BUT SOME STORMS MAY BRING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IF SKIES DARKEN IN YOUR AREA CURTAIL ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND
SEEK SHELTER UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.

One More Muggy Day - Then Fabulous!

Good Morning!

Another warm and steamy day on tap in South Central Michigan, but there is some relief on the way.  Nothing like stepping outside and feeling like someone draped a half-dried bath towel over you!  It's absolutely humid and Everglades out there, no doubt about it.  Let's take a look at what we'll be getting into, and I'll be starting off today's discussion with a mention of...

A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed part of the blog into the standard "slight" risk bubble for severe weather today.  That's a change from yesterday, when the entire lower two thirds of the state was in that risk area.  SPC is thinking that thanks to showers and storms off to the west of us now, the upper air dynamics will be fouled up so that we don't fall in the "sweet spot" for rough stuff.  That being said, the game may change again just a bit, as the forecaster writing that SPC discussion indicated lower than normal confidence in how things will unfold.  Let's take a look at the risk map, along with the soupy dew point values at this hour...

Dew point values are green numbers, and this is within the last hour!  Amber shading is Storm Prediction Center Slight risk for severe weather, green is general thunderstorm activity possible.

Main risks are small hail and damaging wind with this batch of storms.  I don't expect this to be a red-letter severe weather day by any stretch, but I'd check your smartphone or TV and radio on lunchtime from work and during afternoon break just in case.  While we wait and see what shakes out later today, we can talk about some...

MIXED HAZY SUNSHINE WITH DRYING AIR:  The next several days in the area will see some changing conditions.  Sunshine mixed with clouds underneath this soupy, humid air mass we're in right now, with temperatures in the 80's and heat index values making a credible run at 90 degrees or better!  The good news, is all that changes for the latter part of the week.  Temperatures roll back almost ten degrees and we pull back anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees on dew point values, so while we do warm back into the mid or upper 80's for the weekend, it will feel much drier and nicer to be outdoors!  And you'll want to be outdoors as we get toward the weekend!  First, we'll have to get through some...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS, SOME STRONG:  In order for us to get to the drier, more pleasant summer air, along with the nice two day cool down, we'll need to pay the piper, and that we do, with some showers and thunderstorms working into the area this evening from the west.  Have a look at this image from TruTrack Doppler Radar.

The markup over the radar image here tells the story.  And while we're looking at pictures, let's take a look at another, this one being the rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

Weather Prediction Center 5 Day forecast through 8 AM Sunday July 14th.

You'll see we are forecast to pick up right around an inch of rain through Sunday, and the bulk of that will be in the next 24-36 hours.  After that, pleasant, and drying out across the board as we get under some high pressure, and the bulk of the lower 48 gets under some ridging aloft.  It should be a...

FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO BE OUTDOORS:  Go to the lake, fire up the grill, hop in the pool.  If it's to be done outside, the latter half of the week and this weekend are the time to do it.  Sunshine abounds with seasonably warm temperatures.  It gets hot on Sunday, with readings pushing 90 in most places, but the dew point values don't climb much higher than the lower 60's so that is certainly manageable for most folks this time of the year.  Rain chances are practically non-existent right through Monday!

Let's have a look at the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

This afternoon, sun gives way to increasing clouds, some scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms, some may be strong, high 85, dew points at or above 70 will make it feel like 90 or better, winds WSW
5-10 MPH.

Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe with hail and damaging wind as the primary trouble.  Temperatures roll back to only 70, wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, skies clearing from a possible straggling AM shower or storm, then sunny and pleasant, high 83, humidity much lower.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday night, starry and splendid, low 57.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, another winner! Sunny, pleasant, high 80.

Friday, more plentiful sunshine, high 80.

Saturday, continued clear, warmer, high 87.

Sunday, mostly sunny and warm, high 86.

Monday, periods of clouds and sunshine, another very warm day, high 88.

Tuesday, mixed sunshine, we'll introduce a slight chance of a stray PM shower or two, high 87.

There's a look at your forecast for the next week, I do hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings!

Where To Find Me

UPDATE: As of 7/19/13, I no longer contribute to Southwest Michigan Weather.  You can find information about Calhoun, Eaton & Branch counties on that page as well, but you can also find coverage and information right here on South Central Michigan Weather.

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Hey Gang!  Just a reminder that since I am working a day job, I don't always have time to blog here as I like to.  There are three places to check, and I have things set so that typically one post automatically gets pushed to all the places.

1) Here on the blog socentmiwx.blogspot.com

2) Twitter - @wxMikeD, hash tag #scentmiwx or #miwx for weather info you want to pass on.

3) Facebook - just search for South Central Michigan Weather.  I also contribute to Southwest Michigan Weather on Facebook.

4) Google + - under my name, Mike Estwick

Smart phones are amazing!

Mixed Sun & Showery

Good Morning!

This will be an abbreviated forecast and such as the day, in fact, the next couple, are packed!

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS:  For the next couple of days we'll be dealing with better chances of showers and storms in the area, first from an upper wave working through the area, then secondly, around mid-week, a bona fide low tracks up and out of the US via central MN, WI, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  That will drag a frontal boundary behind it which will increase our chances at showers and a few thunderstorms.

A LITTLE UPS & DOWNS ON THE THERMOMETER:  We'll see temperatures warm to near 90 tomorrow, with heat index values at or above that thanks to dew points still hovering near 70.  After we get through Wednesday, the frontal boundary moves away and the upper air flow resets back to that ridge/trough setup we have had for much of the the summer, bringing temperatures back down to around 80.
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SEVERE RISK:   I would be remiss if I did not mention that the Storm Prediction Center has added a small "slight" risk bubble for us, the main threat will be damaging wind.  The best window for those will be this afternoon as the earth gets heated in advance of that upper wave moving through the area.  This will be a concern for the south zone of the blog.  Once you get north of a line drawn through Olivet, Leslie and Stockbridge, that risk diminishes.  We'll watch it and see if SPC changes the shape of that risk area any.

Here's the forecast.

Today, more clouds than sun, breezy and humid, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a couple may go severe with strong winds.  High 83, wind SW 4-10 MPH.

Tonight, continued mainly cloudy, more scattered showers and thunderstorms until at least midnight, lows near 63.

Tuesday, mixed sunshine, chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, humid, high 89. Wind SW 4-8 MPH.

There's a look at your forecast, have a great day!  More info via Twitter and Facebook, my handle is @wxMikeD, Facebook is South Central Michigan Weather.