One More Muggy Day - Then Fabulous!

Good Morning!

Another warm and steamy day on tap in South Central Michigan, but there is some relief on the way.  Nothing like stepping outside and feeling like someone draped a half-dried bath towel over you!  It's absolutely humid and Everglades out there, no doubt about it.  Let's take a look at what we'll be getting into, and I'll be starting off today's discussion with a mention of...

A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed part of the blog into the standard "slight" risk bubble for severe weather today.  That's a change from yesterday, when the entire lower two thirds of the state was in that risk area.  SPC is thinking that thanks to showers and storms off to the west of us now, the upper air dynamics will be fouled up so that we don't fall in the "sweet spot" for rough stuff.  That being said, the game may change again just a bit, as the forecaster writing that SPC discussion indicated lower than normal confidence in how things will unfold.  Let's take a look at the risk map, along with the soupy dew point values at this hour...

Dew point values are green numbers, and this is within the last hour!  Amber shading is Storm Prediction Center Slight risk for severe weather, green is general thunderstorm activity possible.

Main risks are small hail and damaging wind with this batch of storms.  I don't expect this to be a red-letter severe weather day by any stretch, but I'd check your smartphone or TV and radio on lunchtime from work and during afternoon break just in case.  While we wait and see what shakes out later today, we can talk about some...

MIXED HAZY SUNSHINE WITH DRYING AIR:  The next several days in the area will see some changing conditions.  Sunshine mixed with clouds underneath this soupy, humid air mass we're in right now, with temperatures in the 80's and heat index values making a credible run at 90 degrees or better!  The good news, is all that changes for the latter part of the week.  Temperatures roll back almost ten degrees and we pull back anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees on dew point values, so while we do warm back into the mid or upper 80's for the weekend, it will feel much drier and nicer to be outdoors!  And you'll want to be outdoors as we get toward the weekend!  First, we'll have to get through some...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS, SOME STRONG:  In order for us to get to the drier, more pleasant summer air, along with the nice two day cool down, we'll need to pay the piper, and that we do, with some showers and thunderstorms working into the area this evening from the west.  Have a look at this image from TruTrack Doppler Radar.

The markup over the radar image here tells the story.  And while we're looking at pictures, let's take a look at another, this one being the rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

Weather Prediction Center 5 Day forecast through 8 AM Sunday July 14th.

You'll see we are forecast to pick up right around an inch of rain through Sunday, and the bulk of that will be in the next 24-36 hours.  After that, pleasant, and drying out across the board as we get under some high pressure, and the bulk of the lower 48 gets under some ridging aloft.  It should be a...

FANTASTIC WEEKEND TO BE OUTDOORS:  Go to the lake, fire up the grill, hop in the pool.  If it's to be done outside, the latter half of the week and this weekend are the time to do it.  Sunshine abounds with seasonably warm temperatures.  It gets hot on Sunday, with readings pushing 90 in most places, but the dew point values don't climb much higher than the lower 60's so that is certainly manageable for most folks this time of the year.  Rain chances are practically non-existent right through Monday!

Let's have a look at the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

This afternoon, sun gives way to increasing clouds, some scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms, some may be strong, high 85, dew points at or above 70 will make it feel like 90 or better, winds WSW
5-10 MPH.

Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe with hail and damaging wind as the primary trouble.  Temperatures roll back to only 70, wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, skies clearing from a possible straggling AM shower or storm, then sunny and pleasant, high 83, humidity much lower.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday night, starry and splendid, low 57.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, another winner! Sunny, pleasant, high 80.

Friday, more plentiful sunshine, high 80.

Saturday, continued clear, warmer, high 87.

Sunday, mostly sunny and warm, high 86.

Monday, periods of clouds and sunshine, another very warm day, high 88.

Tuesday, mixed sunshine, we'll introduce a slight chance of a stray PM shower or two, high 87.

There's a look at your forecast for the next week, I do hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings!