Burning the midnight oil a little bit here as South Central Michigan is under a severe weather threat. Let's get right to it.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE: The Storm Prediction Center has us in the standard "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms today. Here's a look at that graphic:
The entire blog area is under some risk of severe weather, with most of Calhoun, Eaton, and Clinton counties in the "marginal" risk area as opposed to the slight risk. Right now it appears hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but I cannot rule out the chance of a tornado at this point. I can say that risk appears to be pretty low.
WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?: A low pressure system that is lifting out of Kansas and Nebraska and through Iowa, with the frontal boundary connected to the surface low triggering some showers and thunderstorms out in the warm sector. On the back side of the system, sharply cooler conditions and winds turning northerly, pushing the mild air out of here and colder Canadian air working in. Those 70 and occasional 80 degree readings we have seen will vacate the premises for awhile. The cold front will cost us around 20 degrees of warmth!
PRECIPITATION: The showers and thunder that is expected tomorrow will make up the lion's share of the precipitation for the next five days. Let's have a look at how much we may see...
Along and south of I-96, half to three-quarters of an inch, more as you go north. The bullseye will be down in the southern Plains and into the Tennessee Valley, with three inches or better of precipitation expected. Rain and some of it locally heavy, with a small chance of minor flash flooding is in the equation for the next few days.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: Clouds and cooler conditions stay in the area until late Saturday into Sunday, when we'll see some clearing skies and temperatures starting to climb again. Average high in the area this time of year is right around 61, and I expect us to get back there as the weekend winds down, with temperatures back into the upper 60's and lower 70's by this time next week. Wednesday also appears to be the next credible chance for rain in the area after we get some of that gone.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center.
Today - Becoming cloudy with developing PM showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe, with gusty winds and hail up to quarter size possible. High 71 then falling.
Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms early, then dying off as the night wears on, cooler. Lows near 41.
Friday - Mixed sunshine, much cooler, we can't rule out a stray shower. High 54.
Saturday - Just the occasional peek of sunshine, temperatures stay fairly steady. High 55.
Sunday - Turning sunny and warmer as seasonal readings return, High 63.
Monday - Partly sunny, temperatures again hold nearly steady. High 64.
There's your five day outlook, be looking for updates to the weather situation on Twitter @wxMikeD or on the Facebook page as needed. Have a great one!
