We Got Snookered!!!

Good Evening!

Just like that, the severe threat fizzled in this area.  Storms decreased in intensity as they traveled northeast, and became just some light showers.  Darn.  Some thunderstorms look to be firing again behind the body of rain that has already moved through.  Another batch of strong and severe weather is firing in St. Louis at this hour, doesn't look like that will be an issue for us here in south central Michigan.


Have a good night, forecast tomorrow.

Storms Have Weakened...

Just like that, the storms that looked severe and menacing have weakened as they move northeast.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is still up until 10PM, strong but not severe storms are in Kalamazoo County and just over the state line about to enter south Hillsdale County.

SEVERE STORMS ON THE WAY

Calhoun, Eaton, expect severe storms by 745 PM!

Severe Thunderstorm Watches Issued

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the following counties in south central Michigan until 10 PM EDT:  Branch, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Hillsdale, Jackson.

Be close to a good source of warning information, have a plan, and execute it if/when the need arises!

Afternoon Update, Severe Threat Evolves...

Good Afternoon!


We are monitoring conditions in the area as things are lining up for some strong or severe thunderstorm activity tonight in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone.  Severe thunderstorms are moving into the Chicago metro area right now, and a smaller complex of storms is moving across north-central Indiana.  Some widely scattered thunderstorms of a cellular nature are firing in Hillsdale, and Lenawee, and Washtenaw counties.  Here's the current Detroit NEXRAD image:

Detroit NEXRAD Radar

Based on what I'm seeing now, it looks like things will really start to pop right around sunset as a cold front moves through the area and the storms fire out in the moist air ahead of it.  I would not at all be surprised to see weather watches and warnings needed after 7PM, carrying over into the wee hours of Sunday morning.  We'll keep you posted as things continue to evolve.

Stormy Saturday...

Good Morning!

Forecast for today, sunny to start, clouds roll in as the day progresses, scattered showers and thunderstorms form during the afternoon, high 91, SW winds 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some may be severe, low 67, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Michigan is under a "slight" risk for severe weather as forecast by the Storm Prediction Center.  Be near a good source of weather and warning information today!  More to come as time permits.

A Quick Afternoon Update

Good Afternoon!

Just a quick update to the day's forecast - not much going on in the blog area, just a couple of pop-up stray showers right now, including a lonely one just about to leave Monroe County that would fire, rain itself out, then reload.  It's been doing that most of the afternoon as it traveled through Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee counties in the South zone.

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

North zone counties are quiet, most of the shower activity is well to the north, up through Cadillac and Harrison in the northern third of the Lower Peninsula.  Forecast look unchanged for tonight.  I should be able to get into some analysis and have a forecast for you this evening after dinnertime.  Of course, severe weather info will be provided as quickly as possible here on the blog.  Have a good rest of your afternoon!

Showers Possible Later

Just a quick forecast for today and tonight...
For today, mainly cloudy skies, a few breaks for clouds, some scattered showers or a buried thunderstorm possible, high 89.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, skies remain partly to mainly cloudy, a widely scattered shower or storm can't be ruled out, low 68, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

More to come later!

Seasonable Summer Weather...Showers Make A Weekend Visit...

Good Morning!

Busy day today so we will just run with an abbreviated discussion and then the forecast for you.


TEMPERATURES:  We will see temperatures in the mid to upper 80's today, and 90 is not out the question for the weekend.  Southwesterly flow comes into the area in the next day or so, bringing with it some heat, and an increased chance of showers and storms.  I don't expect any stifling, oppressive heat like we have had this summer this on this go-round, but heat index values into the mid 90's aren't unrealistic.


RAIN:  Rain chances ramp up throughout the area for the next few days, with two decent shots at rain based on the forecast models.  The first chance comes Thursday after dinner into Friday, and the second opportunity is Sunday.  That being said, we don't truly get rid of a chance at rain at any time through the weekend, the windows I just mentioned stand out as the best ones right now.  Looking at it sitting on the perch today, both events would be scattered shower with hit-and-run thunderstorm type affairs.  The National Weather Service is suggesting half to three-quarter inch totals for the next five across much of Michigan, and that forecast doesn't look out of line to me.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Not much expected here for the next 72 hours.  Day One, general storm risk northwest of us, but some of those may drift into the blog area, becoming a north zone deal.  Day Two, general risk of plain-vanilla storms across the entire state.  Day Three, nothing in either Michigan peninsula yet, but that forecast doesn't get fully fleshed out until late this evening/tomorrow.


Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


Today, mostly sunny, warm, high 86, winds N turning SW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, starry skies, seasonably mild, lows near 64, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, mainly sunny skies, a few passing clouds, high 87, winds SW 4-9 MPH.


Thursday night, skies become cloudy, a chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower or storm, low 65, winds SW 4-8 MPH.


Friday, more clouds than sunshine, breezy, chance of a late afternoon or evening isolated or scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 86.


Saturday, mainly cloudy skies, a few peeks of sun, we can't rule out a scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 88.


Sunday, clouds persist with a few breaks for sunshine, we keep a chance of showers around until late in the day, cooler, high 81.


Monday, sunny, seasonable, pleasant, high 82.


Tuesday, continued mostly clear, a few after lunch clouds pass by, warmer, high 84.


There's your forecast for the next six days, i do hope you have a great Hump Day Wednesday, look for an updated discussion this afternoon time permitting!  Blessings.

Routine Summer Weather...

Good Afternoon!


A lot quieter in Jackson and South Central Michigan after a line of pre-dawn storms blew through the area, bringing heavy rain, hail, and high winds to some locations this morning.  We don't expect anything like that for the rest of today.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have to work with today...


TEMPERATURES:  The pattern that I discussed yesterday still looks good for the next several days, that being temperatures climbing to the mid or even upper 80's during the day and falling back into the lower 60's during the nighttime hours.  The truly oppressive heat still stays bottled up in the southern Plains and we still get the "ridge rider" storms coming in periodically, when the boundary between the warm air and the truly miserable hot air edges close enough to us to work with disturbances and lows moving across the Lower Peninsula.  Now the GFS forecast model is suggesting a 90 for Saturday, but it's a little early to lock that in just yet.  Another model run, maybe two, and we'll see if the 90 mark gets tossed into the forecast.


RAIN:  Unofficially, Jackson has picked up .12 of an inch, and Lansing almost doubled that, coming in with just under a quarter-inch at .23 inch of rain.  Rain chances have basically ended for the area at this point, and the next quality chance comes later in the week, Thursday evening into Friday.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks about rain for the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

NWS is predicting half to three-quarters of an inch for pretty much the entire area, and that doesn't look out of line at all.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Still pretty quiet, even after the flare-up from this morning.  The Storm Prediction Center is only expecting a general risk of garden-variety thunderstorms through today, then quiet tomorrow and Thursday, though I expect the Thursday forecast to change a bit, based solely on model simulations for later in the week.


Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center map for today.  This was updated about 11AM EDT...

Day 1 Forecast, Storm Prediction Center

Still just the "general" risk, there was a "slight" risk right over the south state line earlier this morning.


The south zone of the blog is clear, a few puffy clouds north on the visible satellite:

Visible Satellite Image

Nothing to speak of on Grand Rapids NEXRAD, here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Grass Lake:


For this afternoon, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, high 86, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, continued mostly starry skies, a few more clouds float by, lows drop to near 64, winds NW 3-8 MPH.


Wednesday, starts cloudy, then becomes mostly sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, perhaps a passing cloud as temperatures climb to 86, winds NW 3-8 MPH.


Wednesday night, clear and comfortable, lows roll back to 64, winds turn SW calm to 5 MPH.


Thursday, clouds increase during the day, we bring in a chance of an isolated or widely scattered set of showers, high 87.


Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower or roaming thunderstorm after lunchtime, high 88.


Saturday, partly sunny skies, chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, high 89.


Sunday, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, high 83.


That's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope you have a great weekend!  Blessings.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - CALHOUN, BRANCH

Calhoun, your statement is for strong thunderstorms with wind gusts approaching 60 MPH and small hail.  Branch, your statement is for outflow winds along the gust front in excess of 50 MPH.  Storms are tracking south at 25 MPH so Branch and Hillsdale, first you'll get windy, then the storms arrive with possible small hail.  Get to sturdy shelter and let these blow through!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SHIAWASSEE

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 345AM for Shiawassee County.

Warm, Cloudy, Not Much Rain...

Good Morning!


Another mild start to the day and new work week here in South Central Michigan as we wind down July and get ready to head into August.  Not a whole lot to talk about weather-wise, except temperatures creeping back into the upper 80's, and humidity edging up as well.  The heat dome is still there in the southern Plains, so we get "ridge-rider" systems coming through periodically and that's it.  Let's take a deeper dive...


TEMPERATURES:  We see temperatures warm a bit over the next few days, bringing up a mid to upper 80's/low 60's daytime/nighttime pattern, even though we may see some areas dip into the 50's at night over the next several days.  No 90's in the offing yet, but I'll be watching that, as computer modeling is suggesting the ridge may flatten out as the week moves forward.  If that does happen, expect temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than we have right now.


RAIN:  Not much in the way of rain I'm afraid.  You know the routine, it's been all too familiar this summer.  Rain has gone every direction but over us with the exception of the last batch of rain that came through a few days ago.  We'll introduce a chance of a couple of widely scattered showers or perhaps a lonely thunderstorm late tonight and into tomorrow, then not much else until the weekend.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service 5 day forecast for precipitation:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Not much here over the next five days, just a quarter inch, except over by Lake Michigan.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much for the blog zone today or the next three days really, just the general risk of garden variety thunderstorms.  A slight risk is noted across the lake over the eastern half of Wisconsin, extending out over the lake and into the Upper Peninsula.  We do have low end 5% chances for severe wind and hail, but based on the setup, I don't see that happening.


Grand Rapids NEXRAD is clear, and just a few broken clouds are present over the south zone of the blog right now on the visible satellite image:

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For today, periods of clouds and sunshine, warm, high 88, winds SSW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, a chance of a few widely scattered showers or a roaming thunderstorm, low 65, winds S 3-8 MPH.


Tuesday, the last day of July, mainly cloudy skies, perhaps a peek or two of sun, chance of an isolated shower still lingering, high 86.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tuesday night, clearing skies, a bit cooler, low 61, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mostly sunny, seasonably warm, high 86.


Thursday, more clouds than sun, continued warm, high 85.


Friday, continued mainly cloudy with a few breaks for sun, a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, high 85.


Saturday, partly cloudy skies, breezy and warm, chance of an afternoon shower or storm, high 86.


There's your forecast, have a great Monday!  Blessings!

Seasonable, Slowly Warming...

Good Afternoon!

A mix of clouds and sunshine in South Central Michigan on a gorgeous afternoon.  I hope that you have the chance to enjoy some of it!  Temperatures are seasonable with low to mid 80's across the board at all the blog reporting stations.  Let's take a look at what;s in store for the next several days with a deeper dive...


TEMPERATURES:  We should see temperatures remain in the 80's pretty much right through the entire forecast window.  As it stands now, the intense heat will stay bottled up in the Plains, as northwesterly flow continues in this part of the world, allowing some cooler air from north of the border to keep filtering in.  I am watching late in the week and possibly the weekend, as modeling indicates the central US ridge may flatten some, allowing winds to turn more directly west or even southwest.  If that plays out, the heat could return again.


RAIN:  Not seeing much in the way of rain over the next several days, and the forecast from the National Weather Service backs that up as well.  Here's their five day forecast map.

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see NWS has backed off the rain even more, to below a quarter-inch for most places around the blog area, and based on the data I have looked at, that sounds about right.  Maybe just the chance of an isolated sprinkle or two tomorrow evening, then again later in the week, but chances and coverage are low.  The heat dome in the Plains is blocking most systems from coming this way, except for the occasional "ridge rider" - a disturbance that slides down the back slope of the ridge and hugs it pretty close.  In the current setup, the ridge is too far southwest for any systems surfing the back slope to get us anything.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing to speak of regarding any sever stuff except a general risk of thunderstorms tomorrow and that's all there is!  Not even a 5% chance that affects us directly.


A big mass of clouds on the visible satellite out in Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, that's one of those "ridge rider" systems, and the NEXRAD composite on top shows where the rain is.  

Visible Satellite Image with NEXRAD Composite Reflectivity overlaid on it.

That system looks to miss us southwest, if we do get clipped by anything we'll just have a spotty shower or two and that's about all.  Here's the forecast for Jackson County.


For the rest of today, periods of clouds and sunshine, pleasant, high 84, NW winds calm to 6 MPH.


Tonight, continued partly starry skies, seasonably cool, lows near 62, winds working around to the south, calm to 5 MPH.


Monday, continued sunny with a few passing clouds, warmer, high 85, winds SSW 3-8 MPH.


Monday night, a mix of clouds and stars, a bit warmer than Sunday night, lows near 65, winds SW 3-6 MPH.


Tuesday, the pattern continues, sunny skies, clouds increase as the day progresses with a chance of an isolated or widely scattered afternoon shower, high of 86, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Wednesday, partly sunny skies, a touch cooler, high 82.


Thursday, skies remain partly sunny, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower cannot be ruled out, high temperature 85.


Friday, mostly sunny skies, high 86.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a great Sunday afternoon!  Blessings.