Sunday, July 29, 2012

Seasonable, Slowly Warming...

Good Afternoon!

A mix of clouds and sunshine in South Central Michigan on a gorgeous afternoon.  I hope that you have the chance to enjoy some of it!  Temperatures are seasonable with low to mid 80's across the board at all the blog reporting stations.  Let's take a look at what;s in store for the next several days with a deeper dive...


TEMPERATURES:  We should see temperatures remain in the 80's pretty much right through the entire forecast window.  As it stands now, the intense heat will stay bottled up in the Plains, as northwesterly flow continues in this part of the world, allowing some cooler air from north of the border to keep filtering in.  I am watching late in the week and possibly the weekend, as modeling indicates the central US ridge may flatten some, allowing winds to turn more directly west or even southwest.  If that plays out, the heat could return again.


RAIN:  Not seeing much in the way of rain over the next several days, and the forecast from the National Weather Service backs that up as well.  Here's their five day forecast map.


5 Day Precipitation Forecast
As you can see NWS has backed off the rain even more, to below a quarter-inch for most places around the blog area, and based on the data I have looked at, that sounds about right.  Maybe just the chance of an isolated sprinkle or two tomorrow evening, then again later in the week, but chances and coverage are low.  The heat dome in the Plains is blocking most systems from coming this way, except for the occasional "ridge rider" - a disturbance that slides down the back slope of the ridge and hugs it pretty close.  In the current setup, the ridge is too far southwest for any systems surfing the back slope to get us anything.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing to speak of regarding any sever stuff except a general risk of thunderstorms tomorrow and that's all there is!  Not even a 5% chance that affects us directly.


A big mass of clouds on the visible satellite out in Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, that's one of those "ridge rider" systems, and the NEXRAD composite on top shows where the rain is.  


Visible Satellite Image with NEXRAD Composite Reflectivity overlaid on it.
That system looks to miss us southwest, if we do get clipped by anything we'll just have a spotty shower or two and that's about all.  Here's the forecast for Jackson County.


For the rest of today, periods of clouds and sunshine, pleasant, high 84, NW winds calm to 6 MPH.


Tonight, continued partly starry skies, seasonably cool, lows near 62, winds working around to the south, calm to 5 MPH.


Monday, continued sunny with a few passing clouds, warmer, high 85, winds SSW 3-8 MPH.


Monday night, a mix of clouds and stars, a bit warmer than Sunday night, lows near 65, winds SW 3-6 MPH.


Tuesday, the pattern continues, sunny skies, clouds increase as the day progresses with a chance of an isolated or widely scattered afternoon shower, high of 86, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Wednesday, partly sunny skies, a touch cooler, high 82.


Thursday, skies remain partly sunny, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower cannot be ruled out, high temperature 85.


Friday, mostly sunny skies, high 86.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a great Sunday afternoon!  Blessings.

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