Nice Weekend - Stormy Week Ahead....

Good Evening!

After a damp and dreary day thru the early afternoon, the clouds moved off, sunshine returned, and temperatures rebounded, with most areas checking in with readings in the mid to upper 50's.  We'll have a pleasant, albeit cool weekend in the cards, then things change early next week as our next weather maker gets us wet Monday, and wreaks havoc well to the south and west.  Let's take a look and see what's running under the hood...

CLEAR SKIES AND A TOUCH CHILLY:  We'll see plenty of sunshine with seasonable temperatures that are a bit on the cool side, but nothing that a light jacket can't take care of.  Average readings in the area are right around 64 degrees, and we stay under that through the weekend, into early next week.

WARMER AND WETTER MONDAY AND BEYOND:  A strong surface low sitting in the base of a negatively tilted trough centered over the northern Plains will be our next weather maker in the Monday /Tuesday time frame.  Combine that with some mild Gulf air riding into this neck of the woods on a low level jet streak (basically a tightly contained river of strong winds below about 8000 feet of altitude), and you get temperatures warming into the upper 60's and lower 70's - but you also get increased moisture.  Add a surface boundary or bona fide low pressure system to the mix as a lifting mechanism, and you set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms.  Let's talk a little more about that...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK - THE EXTENDED PLAY EDITION:  Here in Michigan, we'll sit this one out.  Our rough weather season typically doesn't truly crank up until mid-May.  If you have friends or family that live in a shaded area on the SPC maps, get hold to them and tell them they MUST stay weather aware this weekend.

As time permits, I'll be tweeting and talking and such on social media.  Here's the SPC maps defining the risk areas over the next 96 hours...

SPC Risk Saturday

SPC Risk Sunday

SPC Risk Monday/Tuesday

This weekend and early next week look to be a storm chaser's dream in southern and central Tornado Alley, then the show moves east into the ArkLaTex and Dixie Alley.  All signs currently point to a major severe weather outbreak, with all modes of severe Spring weather, including strong to violent tornadoes on the menu.  Have a look at this forecast map:

This is CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy.  This is a snapshot valid at 5 PM Tuesday evening. Think of the air as having battery power that can be tapped by storms that are able to form.  The higher the number, the more abundant the energy for storms to munch on, and the more intense they'll be. A value of 500 joules, like what we could have in Michigan by Tuesday evening will give you a few lower end storms here and there, not much to be concerned with aside from the obvious dangers of lightning and perhaps a gust or two of wind and some brief downpours.  Now look further south, down by the Gulf of Mexico!  Those forecast CAPE values off the GFS computer model show potential for bad business!  Anything over 1500-2000 joules (yellowish/orange shading), watch out!  That kind of air, given the right mix of moisture and instability, will spawn supercell thunderstorms that can threaten life and property with hail, wind, intense lightning, and in some cases, strong to violent tornadoes.

Again - other than some garden variety showers and storms early next week, I don't expect any truly dangerous weather in South Central Michigan, or Michigan period for that matter through at least Friday.

HERE'S THE SCOOP IN THE AREA:  A pleasant weekend with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50's - the sunshine could certainly help us into the lower 60's.  North and south zones of the blog should settle in the 55-62 degree range for highs, with lows as chilly as 34 at night.  Monday, we'll start working some clouds in, but raise temperatures as south winds push milder, moister air in here.  By Tuesday, ridging is in place and mild southwesterly breezes boost us to highs of 68-74 throughout the area on Tuesday - but that's also when we kick off some showers and thunderstorms.  As we work through the week, expect breaks in the precipitation, but I can't really take rain off the table until we get toward the weekend.

SPEAKING OF RAIN:  Have a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for the next five days regarding rain:

A little over an inch here - big numbers in the south - flooding is definitely a concern along with the severe weather!

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Grass Lake:

I hope you have a wonderful weekend!!!

Quick Look...

Good Afternoon!

Plenty of clear skies outside at this hour, but man it's chilly!  Upper 40's and low to mid 50's dominate the readings in the area.  We'll see some changes working through as we get closer to the weekend, with some showers and thunder possible on Friday.  Let's have a closer look!

CHANGES? YEP:  Our abundant sunshine will be replaced with clouds as we get closer to Friday.  Our next weather maker is currently sitting out in the Plains, but it will put it into gear and start moving closer to our area tomorrow.  Clouds will filter in during the afternoon and evening, and by daybreak Friday, I expect some showers and thunder.  We'll keep that around until Friday evening, then cooler with the clear skies that will work into the state behind it.  In fact, after Friday, you can expect a below normal temperature stretch of weather, with readings in Jackson down in the mid 50's.  Average this time of year is right around 63 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER:  None expected in Michigan the next three days, but the Storm Prediction Center is sounding the alarm in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley for the weekend.  On Saturday and Sunday, SPC is forecasting severe weather from Texas up into Nebraska, and the whole system moves east from that point.  Here'a a look at the SPC risk map for Day 4 and beyond:

If you have friends/relatives in that part of the world, tell them to stay weather aware this weekend!!!

LOOKING AHEAD:  Cool and dry for the weekend, clouds increase on Monday, and we introduce a fresh chance at some showers into the mix for Tuesday.

Here's the forecast:

This afternoon:  Sunny, cool, high 53.  Wind NNW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight:  Clear, chilly.  Lows near 30, winds turn S 4-8 MPH.

Thursday:  Sunny to start, clouds start building after lunchtime.  High 63.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Friday:  Cloudy, periods of showers, a thunderstorm can't be ruled out.  High 65.

Saturday:  Clearing skies, cooler, high 55.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a wonderful day!

Quick Look For Monday

Good Morning!

What a beautiful Easter it was!  The weekend in general was splendid, with plenty of sunshine, and pleasant temperatures.  We'll enjoy more of that this morning, but some changes are in the cards.  Let's have a look:

SO LONG SUN AND WARMTH:  We'll get through most of this back to work Monday with slowly increasing clouds.  Anytime after say, 7 PM this evening, scattered showers with a couple of buried thunderstorms will work into the area.  At the moment, I am not seeing any shower or storm activity before the evening drive home from work, but I can't completely take that possibility out of the picture.  A weak disturbance is pushing in here from the northwest, bringing the rain and cooler readings.  Fortunately the rain and such don't stick around too long, and I expect clear skies and seasonably cool conditions for tomorrow afternoon.  It will feel chilly though, as we give back 20 degrees of thermometer readings.  I'm predicting 74 for the high today, and the high tomorrow should only be 53.

HOW MUCH RAIN MIKE?:  While this system doesn't pack much of a punch, you can still expect about three-tenths of an inch of rain between noon today and noon tomorrow.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Milder weather returns to the area on Wednesday, and by Thursday we are back into the mid 60's, but we'll again introduce the chance of scattered to numerous showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder back into the area.  Once that works out of here, we're again back into the cooler air, but this system will be a bit more vigorous, as a result, pulling air down from Canada sufficiently cold to possibly keep 50 out of reach for the daytime high Saturday!

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Increasing clouds as the day progresses, an isolated afternoon shower or thundershower is possible, high 74.  Wind SW turning NW later 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Cloudy, scattered showers and the occasional rumble of thunder, cooler with lows rolling back to 44.  Winds turn NW and increase to 8-16 MPH.

Tuesday - Rain lingers through mid-morning, then clearing, much cooler than the weekend.  High only makes it to 52.  Wind NW turning W 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday Night - Mostly starry skies, cold.  Lows dip to 31.

Wednesday - Sunny skies, a touch warmer, high 57.

Thursday - Sunny to start, increasing clouds with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, high 64.

Friday - More clouds than sunshine, still the chance of some scattered showers, high 63.

Saturday - Clearing, sharply cooler, high 49.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.