Nice Weekend - Stormy Week Ahead....

Good Evening!

After a damp and dreary day thru the early afternoon, the clouds moved off, sunshine returned, and temperatures rebounded, with most areas checking in with readings in the mid to upper 50's.  We'll have a pleasant, albeit cool weekend in the cards, then things change early next week as our next weather maker gets us wet Monday, and wreaks havoc well to the south and west.  Let's take a look and see what's running under the hood...

CLEAR SKIES AND A TOUCH CHILLY:  We'll see plenty of sunshine with seasonable temperatures that are a bit on the cool side, but nothing that a light jacket can't take care of.  Average readings in the area are right around 64 degrees, and we stay under that through the weekend, into early next week.

WARMER AND WETTER MONDAY AND BEYOND:  A strong surface low sitting in the base of a negatively tilted trough centered over the northern Plains will be our next weather maker in the Monday /Tuesday time frame.  Combine that with some mild Gulf air riding into this neck of the woods on a low level jet streak (basically a tightly contained river of strong winds below about 8000 feet of altitude), and you get temperatures warming into the upper 60's and lower 70's - but you also get increased moisture.  Add a surface boundary or bona fide low pressure system to the mix as a lifting mechanism, and you set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms.  Let's talk a little more about that...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK - THE EXTENDED PLAY EDITION:  Here in Michigan, we'll sit this one out.  Our rough weather season typically doesn't truly crank up until mid-May.  If you have friends or family that live in a shaded area on the SPC maps, get hold to them and tell them they MUST stay weather aware this weekend.

As time permits, I'll be tweeting and talking and such on social media.  Here's the SPC maps defining the risk areas over the next 96 hours...

SPC Risk Saturday

SPC Risk Sunday

SPC Risk Monday/Tuesday

This weekend and early next week look to be a storm chaser's dream in southern and central Tornado Alley, then the show moves east into the ArkLaTex and Dixie Alley.  All signs currently point to a major severe weather outbreak, with all modes of severe Spring weather, including strong to violent tornadoes on the menu.  Have a look at this forecast map:

This is CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy.  This is a snapshot valid at 5 PM Tuesday evening. Think of the air as having battery power that can be tapped by storms that are able to form.  The higher the number, the more abundant the energy for storms to munch on, and the more intense they'll be. A value of 500 joules, like what we could have in Michigan by Tuesday evening will give you a few lower end storms here and there, not much to be concerned with aside from the obvious dangers of lightning and perhaps a gust or two of wind and some brief downpours.  Now look further south, down by the Gulf of Mexico!  Those forecast CAPE values off the GFS computer model show potential for bad business!  Anything over 1500-2000 joules (yellowish/orange shading), watch out!  That kind of air, given the right mix of moisture and instability, will spawn supercell thunderstorms that can threaten life and property with hail, wind, intense lightning, and in some cases, strong to violent tornadoes.

Again - other than some garden variety showers and storms early next week, I don't expect any truly dangerous weather in South Central Michigan, or Michigan period for that matter through at least Friday.

HERE'S THE SCOOP IN THE AREA:  A pleasant weekend with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 50's - the sunshine could certainly help us into the lower 60's.  North and south zones of the blog should settle in the 55-62 degree range for highs, with lows as chilly as 34 at night.  Monday, we'll start working some clouds in, but raise temperatures as south winds push milder, moister air in here.  By Tuesday, ridging is in place and mild southwesterly breezes boost us to highs of 68-74 throughout the area on Tuesday - but that's also when we kick off some showers and thunderstorms.  As we work through the week, expect breaks in the precipitation, but I can't really take rain off the table until we get toward the weekend.

SPEAKING OF RAIN:  Have a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for the next five days regarding rain:

A little over an inch here - big numbers in the south - flooding is definitely a concern along with the severe weather!

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Grass Lake:

I hope you have a wonderful weekend!!!