South Central Michigan Weather: Spring In Full Swing (Or Full Wring

Good Morning!

Plenty to talk about today weather-wise, so we'll dive right into it.

PRAY FOR VILONIA, ARKANSAS: That town had just rebuilt from damage that occurred three years ago, when one of the 2011 Super Outbreak tornadoes flattened it. Last night, that town was scored on once again. A small town of about 3500 people just north of Little Rock appears to be largely destroyed after a tornado tore it up again last night. No final numbers yet on fatalities and such, however based on the few images I have seen in the press, plus the scanner traffic I was listening to, along with the radar signatures I saw, I will speculate that it will be rated at least an EF-3. (Disclaimer: I am not yet a degreed meteorologist, and I have not seen any damage images beyond what's in the media and on Twitter. The rating comment is my opinion only and shouldn't be taken to the bank.) Say a prayer in whatever tradition you're used to for those folks as they pick up the pieces again.

SEVERE WEATHER, ROUND TWO: The stormy weather isn't over yet, as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a "moderate" risk for severe weather, this time through Dixie Alley and up into central Tennessee. Have a look at the map from the SPC:

Day 1 Severe Risk

Inside the moderate risk area is a better than 1 in 10 shot at a tornado of EF-2 strength or higher, and hail 2" in diameter or better. The good news for us here in Michigan, is our forecast includes just the mention of some Plain Jane thunderstorms, without all the fuss and such of severe storms. We will have wind and rain issues today though, more on that later. Tomorrow, the southeastern corner of the state is tossed into the basic "slight" risk of severe weather. Here's that map:

Day 2 Severe Risk

For now, on Tuesday, parts of South Central Michigan are in play from the SPC standpoint, but it's too early to tell if that holds. We need to get through the next 18 hours or so before we get a really solid idea. For my money, I think the risk will still be there tomorrow, but the area included will change and possibly expand a little. Future model runs will flesh out the details, but I have a feeling that the low pressure center may linger out west a bit longer than we're seeing now, keeping the risk here.

RAINS ARE A'COMIN: Here's a look at the Tru-Track Doppler Satellite/Radar composite image, showing a band of showers tracking almost due north, with the heaviest activity stretching from Coldwater to South Haven, then northwest across the lake to Milwaukee. We'll keep rain in the forecast for a good chunk of the week I'm afraid, with a low that is currently parked on the Iowa/Nebraska border creeping along to the northeast ever so slowly. Here's a look at the map:

As it spins counter-clockwise, it pulls warmer, moister air up from the Gulf of Mexico, setting the stage for showers and a few thunderstorms. Forecast models are saying we also cut off a second low pressure center right on the Michigan/Ohio line at 8 AM tomorrow, and the localized unstable air connected with that feature will gift you the lifting mechanism needed to fire off showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Even if we don't get that second low to actually set up as advertised, rain will be plentiful this next several days. Here's a look at the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day map:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Thru 8 AM Saturday

This is a very wet look, with two inches or better of rain expected between now and the weekend! Don't expect much sunshine during this week either. Tuesday and Thursday look to have the best shots at some breaks in the clouds for some sunshine, but gray skies are the rule this trip, rather than the exception. At least the rains tomorrow will be fairly warm.

WINDY, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY: Today we have a High Wind Advisory to contend with. East winds gusting to 45 MPH will make driving large bulky vehicles on north/south roads an adventure. Make sure you secure anything you don't want to go looking for or have to clean up between now and tomorrow morning. All that wind will usher in above average readings on the thermometer for at least a couple of days! Average is right around 65 in the south zone, and readings in some spots could make it into the lower or even middle 70's. That being said, I'm predicting 69 for Jackson and vicinity. North zone, you may see a 70 or two as well, though your average readings are a couple of degrees cooler. As we get into mid-week, we'll drop the mercury back into the 50's after the cold front gets through here on Wednesday. Readings start to climb again toward the seasonal average of 65 in time for the weekend, along with some sunshine!

Here's a look at current temperatures around the US...