Easing Into Summer...

Good Morning!

After some showers and storms moved through the area causing high winds and some tree damage, but not much else, a much smaller part of the state gets to potentially do it again today.  Let's dive in...

STILL A SEVERE RISK:  The Storm Prediction Center again has part of the blog under a "slight" risk for severe weather.  Much smaller risk, including only Lenawee, Washtenaw, and a sliver of Livingston county.  Layered near that, a "marginal" risk for Clinton, Hillsdale, part of Calhoun, Jackson, and part of Ingham and Livingston counties.  Here's the map:

Today's risk area is a heck of a lot small than yesterday!  We also note the other slight risks from Maryland up through Maine, and out to the west, on the Central and High Plains, covering parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska.

These will be for more storms with gusty straight-line winds and small hail.  If you're in those areas, just increase your weather awareness a bit and be prepared to move indoors if storms approach.  All of the high wind reports in Michigan yesterday had tree damage connected with them, so be aware.

MORE SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON:  A low up in southern Ontario that is dragging a surface boundary along behind it will be the main trigger for showers and storms in south-central and southeast Michigan today.  That, and the usual pop-up afternoon showers and storms that you get in the warm season will be what you need to concern yourself with.  Definitely nothing like what's going on in the southern Great Plains and Texas, with the massive flooding issues.  Here's a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast...

A broken line of showers with a couple of gusty thunderstorms is what this look suggests.  As always, ONE model, ONE solution.  HRRR has been doing decently the last few weeks though, so we'll run with this idea for now.

As you can see, this suggests those hit & miss showers and thunderstorms, we expect the heavier ones in the southeastern part of the state, primarily south of I-96 and east of US-127.  After today, things dry out until late Friday and into Saturday, when the next system works into the area, again touching off numerous showers and some thunderstorms.

SOME CHANGES:  Today won't really be the game-changer with the weather, but the weekend will be.  Forecast data is suggesting a fairly robust low that starts out today tracking along the international border lifting north into Canada, that will be pulling a fairly strong cold front along with it.  After the showers and storms Friday and Saturday, we trade the 80's over dew point values in the 50's for 60's over dew points in the 40's.  In other words, cooler and less humid air for next week!

Don't worry, the cooler conditions don't last for too long.  Low-amplitude ridging allows readings to climb back into the 70's and 80's following the weekend and early week cool-down.  Seasonable weather is back in time for the start of the work week, with a high of 71 for Jackson on Monday.

LOOKING AHEAD:  We'll keep things mainly sunny and beautiful from Sunday until about Wednesday evening, when clouds start to thicken up and we bring the rain chances up.  Each day from Thursday on will see at least a 4 in 10 chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area, with readings in the 74-80 range.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Partly to mainly sunny, seasonably warm, a couple of PM showers or a storm can't be ruled out.  High 78.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Starry and pleasantly cool.  Low 53.  Wind SSW 4-8 MPH.

Thursday - Sunny and warm, humid, high 84.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Friday - AM sunshine, increasing PM clouds with some developing showers and thunderstorms, high 83.

Saturday - Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms in periods during the day, turning cooler.  High 68.

Sunday - Clear and cooler, high only 65.

Monday - Abundant sunshine, warmer, high 72.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny, some PM clouds, a stray shower can't be ruled out.  High 76.

There's your six day forecast.  I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT for all counties in the blog.  In fact, all of lower Michigan is in on the watch except the top three counties of the mitten.

Strong winds are the primary threat with these storms.

Storms Start (Unofficial) Summer...

Good Morning!

Cloudy skies across the board this morning as we start off what could be a busy day weather-wise.

Let's get right into the details...

SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY:  The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of lower Michigan in the standard "slight" risk for severe weather today.  Have a look at the map here...

The good news about this is that we do NOT expect tornadic thunderstorms.  The main issue with these would be damaging straight-line winds, along with some small hail and heavy rains.  Nonetheless, it's important for you to have a plan, know where you'll and what you'll do today, and be close to a good source of watch and warning information.

SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATER ON:  The big picture today is that a cold front will be pushing into Michigan ahead of a trough and bona fide surface low.  That same system is pushing a line of showers and thunderstorms through Illinois as I write this.  I expect that line to not totally fall apart, but some spacing of storms to develop, then for everything to organize and re-fire this afternoon.  Have a look at this map:

By about 1 or 2 PM, the first parts of that line should have moved into the area, western Branch and Calhoun counties.  The image above shows what the HRRR FutureCast looks like at 3 PM local, with strong showers and thunderstorms along that line, and the spacing will have filled in.  Straight-line winds up to 60 MPH and heavy rains will be the primary threat.  We'll have to monitor trends to see if the risk of tornadoes increases.  That will depend on how much heating we get.

READINGS DON'T CHANGE MUCH AS THE FRONT PASSES:  Truthfully, "surface boundary" might be a better term to describe the passing system, as readings don't take much of a tumble until the weekend.  78-81 around Jackson and in fact, most of the blog area looks good, thank you very much.  After the storms pass, lows should roll back to around 60 tonight.  Tomorrow should see clearing skies and readings come right back to near where they are.  I'm predicting 80 for Jackson.

MORE RAIN AND STORMS LATER THIS WEEK:  Fast forward to Friday, and another system is working into the Midwest.  That system will trigger showers and thunderstorms on Friday, and we'll have to watch this one as well.  We're looking at a 10-15 degree swing in temperatures, with an 81 high on Friday being replaced by 70 on Saturday, with the weekend featuring the chance of some scattered to even numerous showers and storms each day.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Cloudy skies, showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, some could be severe, with damaging straight-line winds as the primary threat.  High 81.  Winds SW 6-12 MPH.

Tonight - Showers and storms diminish around midnight, continued cooler.  Lows near 60.  Winds SSW 4-9 MPH.

Wednesday - Partly to mainly sunny, seasonably warm, high 80.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday Night - Mostly starry and cool, lows near 52.

Thursday - Sunny and splendid, high 82.

Friday - Continued sunny, increasing clouds as the day progresses, some showers and thunderstorms developing late.  High 83.

Saturday - Cloudy, periods of showers and thunderstorms, cooler.  High 65.

Sunday - More clouds than sunshine, cooler.  Some showers can't be ruled out.  Highs only 64.

Monday - A few peeks of sun, otherwise mainly cloudy and continued cool, high 66.

There's a look at your forecast.  I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.