Easing Into Summer...

Good Morning!

After some showers and storms moved through the area causing high winds and some tree damage, but not much else, a much smaller part of the state gets to potentially do it again today.  Let's dive in...

STILL A SEVERE RISK:  The Storm Prediction Center again has part of the blog under a "slight" risk for severe weather.  Much smaller risk, including only Lenawee, Washtenaw, and a sliver of Livingston county.  Layered near that, a "marginal" risk for Clinton, Hillsdale, part of Calhoun, Jackson, and part of Ingham and Livingston counties.  Here's the map:

Today's risk area is a heck of a lot small than yesterday!  We also note the other slight risks from Maryland up through Maine, and out to the west, on the Central and High Plains, covering parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska.

These will be for more storms with gusty straight-line winds and small hail.  If you're in those areas, just increase your weather awareness a bit and be prepared to move indoors if storms approach.  All of the high wind reports in Michigan yesterday had tree damage connected with them, so be aware.

MORE SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON:  A low up in southern Ontario that is dragging a surface boundary along behind it will be the main trigger for showers and storms in south-central and southeast Michigan today.  That, and the usual pop-up afternoon showers and storms that you get in the warm season will be what you need to concern yourself with.  Definitely nothing like what's going on in the southern Great Plains and Texas, with the massive flooding issues.  Here's a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast...

A broken line of showers with a couple of gusty thunderstorms is what this look suggests.  As always, ONE model, ONE solution.  HRRR has been doing decently the last few weeks though, so we'll run with this idea for now.

As you can see, this suggests those hit & miss showers and thunderstorms, we expect the heavier ones in the southeastern part of the state, primarily south of I-96 and east of US-127.  After today, things dry out until late Friday and into Saturday, when the next system works into the area, again touching off numerous showers and some thunderstorms.

SOME CHANGES:  Today won't really be the game-changer with the weather, but the weekend will be.  Forecast data is suggesting a fairly robust low that starts out today tracking along the international border lifting north into Canada, that will be pulling a fairly strong cold front along with it.  After the showers and storms Friday and Saturday, we trade the 80's over dew point values in the 50's for 60's over dew points in the 40's.  In other words, cooler and less humid air for next week!

Don't worry, the cooler conditions don't last for too long.  Low-amplitude ridging allows readings to climb back into the 70's and 80's following the weekend and early week cool-down.  Seasonable weather is back in time for the start of the work week, with a high of 71 for Jackson on Monday.

LOOKING AHEAD:  We'll keep things mainly sunny and beautiful from Sunday until about Wednesday evening, when clouds start to thicken up and we bring the rain chances up.  Each day from Thursday on will see at least a 4 in 10 chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area, with readings in the 74-80 range.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Partly to mainly sunny, seasonably warm, a couple of PM showers or a storm can't be ruled out.  High 78.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Starry and pleasantly cool.  Low 53.  Wind SSW 4-8 MPH.

Thursday - Sunny and warm, humid, high 84.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Friday - AM sunshine, increasing PM clouds with some developing showers and thunderstorms, high 83.

Saturday - Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms in periods during the day, turning cooler.  High 68.

Sunday - Clear and cooler, high only 65.

Monday - Abundant sunshine, warmer, high 72.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny, some PM clouds, a stray shower can't be ruled out.  High 76.

There's your six day forecast.  I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.