Cloudy skies across the board this morning as we start off what could be a busy day weather-wise.
Let's get right into the details...
SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY: The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of lower Michigan in the standard "slight" risk for severe weather today. Have a look at the map here...
The good news about this is that we do NOT expect tornadic thunderstorms. The main issue with these would be damaging straight-line winds, along with some small hail and heavy rains. Nonetheless, it's important for you to have a plan, know where you'll and what you'll do today, and be close to a good source of watch and warning information.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATER ON: The big picture today is that a cold front will be pushing into Michigan ahead of a trough and bona fide surface low. That same system is pushing a line of showers and thunderstorms through Illinois as I write this. I expect that line to not totally fall apart, but some spacing of storms to develop, then for everything to organize and re-fire this afternoon. Have a look at this map:
By about 1 or 2 PM, the first parts of that line should have moved into the area, western Branch and Calhoun counties. The image above shows what the HRRR FutureCast looks like at 3 PM local, with strong showers and thunderstorms along that line, and the spacing will have filled in. Straight-line winds up to 60 MPH and heavy rains will be the primary threat. We'll have to monitor trends to see if the risk of tornadoes increases. That will depend on how much heating we get.
READINGS DON'T CHANGE MUCH AS THE FRONT PASSES: Truthfully, "surface boundary" might be a better term to describe the passing system, as readings don't take much of a tumble until the weekend. 78-81 around Jackson and in fact, most of the blog area looks good, thank you very much. After the storms pass, lows should roll back to around 60 tonight. Tomorrow should see clearing skies and readings come right back to near where they are. I'm predicting 80 for Jackson.
MORE RAIN AND STORMS LATER THIS WEEK: Fast forward to Friday, and another system is working into the Midwest. That system will trigger showers and thunderstorms on Friday, and we'll have to watch this one as well. We're looking at a 10-15 degree swing in temperatures, with an 81 high on Friday being replaced by 70 on Saturday, with the weekend featuring the chance of some scattered to even numerous showers and storms each day.
Here's the forecast:
Today - Cloudy skies, showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, some could be severe, with damaging straight-line winds as the primary threat. High 81. Winds SW 6-12 MPH.
Tonight - Showers and storms diminish around midnight, continued cooler. Lows near 60. Winds SSW 4-9 MPH.
Wednesday - Partly to mainly sunny, seasonably warm, high 80. Winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday Night - Mostly starry and cool, lows near 52.
Thursday - Sunny and splendid, high 82.
Friday - Continued sunny, increasing clouds as the day progresses, some showers and thunderstorms developing late. High 83.
Saturday - Cloudy, periods of showers and thunderstorms, cooler. High 65.
Sunday - More clouds than sunshine, cooler. Some showers can't be ruled out. Highs only 64.
Monday - A few peeks of sun, otherwise mainly cloudy and continued cool, high 66.
There's a look at your forecast. I hope that you have a wonderful day! Blessings.
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