Big Rain, Big Changes

Good Evening!

Weather extremes on tap over the next day or so, let's get right to it.

SUMMARY:  Tonight, dense fog due to moist air from snow melt, and not very much wind.  Tomorrow, unseasonably warm weather takes hold with temperatures in most areas well into the the 50's.  Showers and the possibility of a few buried thunderstorms are in the mix as well.  Plenty of moisture from rain and snow melt may create some flooding issues.

Here's something you don't see every day.  This is the severe weather outlook map from the Storm Prediction Center.  I typically don't start including these in the forecast summary until spring and summer.  Here it is though, and you see that here in Michigan we have a risk for garden-variety thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook

Looking into the Deep South, the setup favors a significant severe weather event, including severe storms and tornadoes.  Moderate risk for severe weather has already been identified in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

After we get through tomorrow, temperatures start to fall back into the 40's then a temperature free fall with snow for the tail end of the week.  By the time Thursday gets here, we give back 40 degrees of temperature on the thermometer, with daytime highs in the teens, and wind chills in the single digits or colder.  We also replenish the snow that we have melted away too.

PRECIPITATION:  All modes we have had, all modes we will have.  We went from snow to freezing rain and sleet to rain, we go the other way over the next couple of days.  A series of lows invade from the southwest.  We start getting wet tomorrow morning and keep things going, then a second, more intense 988mb low comes through  on Wednesday.  Right behind that, the mercury nosedives, and our rain changes back to a wintry mix then snow.  On top of that, it appears that lake-effect snow will also become part of the mix, with the lake-effect snow machine cranking up again and bringing persistent snows to areas west of US 131.  I am not sure how this will impact us here in south central Michigan at this time.  We'll have to check that with fresh forecast model data.

I will have a complete six day forecast for you later.