Wednesday Winner...Cooling For The Weekend

Good Morning!

After an unusually hectic day for a weekday, I am back with a full discussion and forecast for you.

Seasonably warm today and tomorrow, then cooling with broken sunshine the next few days, but the warm weather isn't quite done with us just yet.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures warm well into the 70's today with an 80 or two around the area not out of the question.  After that, a cold front moves through tomorrow evening, causing temperatures to drop, with daytime highs at or below 75.  That regime stays around for a refreshing race weekend, then we warm back up into late-summer temperatures.

RAIN:  The best chance for rain comes tomorrow afternoon into early Friday.  Computer modeling agrees we'll pick up some rain between Thursday after lunch and pre-dawn Friday, but when it shows up is a different story.  For now, I am forecasting a few scattered showers moving in around mid-afternoon, with increasing coverage by dinnertime, and staying with us through the evening.  These should start to head out during the overnight hours, leaving a cool autumn-like start to the day on Friday.  Let's take a look at the five-day precipitation map...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The National Weather Service is predicting rainfall of around half to three-quarters of an inch over the next five days, and the data I have looked at suggests that's in the ballpark.  The cold front moving through sets up coverage that is at least somewhat uniform, but no one place is guaranteed to see exactly half an inch or exactly three-quarters of an inch.  Your mileage will vary.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Michigan gets in on the severe weather threat, but well-removed from here, at least initially.  Today, severe weather is possible in the western half of the Upper Peninsula, with a general risk for about 40% of the Lower Peninsula.  Tomorrow, the entire state is under a general risk of storms, with Branch, Hillsdale, and a sliver of southern Calhoun counties in the slight risk area.  Any storms that make it to severe will see damaging wind as the primary threat, with perhaps a small risk of severe hail.  Here's a look at the maps for today and tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.  These are valid each day at 7AM EDT...

SPC Day 1 Forecast

SPC Day 2 Forecast

Not much on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, except for a lot of ground clutter and some light showers over Lake Michigan.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies around south central Michigan right now on the infrared satellite image, those will give way to sun with some scattered clouds later.

Infrared Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Napoleon:

For today, mostly sunny with some scattered clouds, seasonably warm, high 78, winds WNW 
3-8 MPH.

Tonight, mainly starry skies with a cloud or two passing by, lows roll back to 59, winds W 3-6 MPH.

Tomorrow, sunny to start, clouds increase during the day, scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, high 81, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow night, showers and storms start tapering off around bedtime, cooler after that, nighttime lows down to 55, winds WNW 5-10 MPH.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler, chance of a lingering shower, high 71.

Saturday, a mix of sun and clouds, high 73.

Sunday, clouds still pass by from time to time, some sunshine and a bit warmer, an isolated shower is possible, high 75.

Monday, the pattern continues, partly cloudy skies, seasonable, high 75.

Tuesday, the cloud and sun mixture remains, high 75.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Wednesday.  We'll have a RACECast for you tomorrow!  Blessings.