Another warm day is winding down in South Central Michigan. We'll see some showers and storms in the area in the not too distant future, then we'll see some cooler temperatures that will definitely feel more refreshing for you. Let's have a look at it...
WARM ONE FOR SURE: Very warm readings today coming from the airport observation data. Capital City in Lansing had 88 degrees, Jackson made it up to 85, Howell topped out at 86. We'll see more warm weather tomorrow, but then a low pressure system begins nosing into the area and kicks off some showers and thunderstorms, and then the trailing cold front causes us to get much cooler air on the backside of the system. Let's look at it...
Here's a look the GFS Model FutureCast for tomorrow at 11 AM EDT. I could see a couple of scattered showers and storms ongoing at this time, but the bulk of the rain really doesn't work into the area until lunchtime or later. Out ahead of the purple shading will be instability, some shear, and the other ingredients you need for thunderstorms. That being said, I think these will strong to marginally severe, with gusty wind, small hail, and some brief downpours to contend with. The Storm Prediction Center is thinking the same thing...
In addition to the "marginal" risk for all of lower Michigan, the risk extends into Ohio, then back across the Midwest into the Plains, and a smaller "marginal" risk area is identified for the northeastern quarter of Colorado.
DEFINITELY SOME RAINDROPS: The next five days in Michigan will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms. After tomorrow though, anything we see will be a pop-up and not have a lot of moisture available to drop big rains. Have a look at this map from the Weather Prediction Center:
A half-inch is about all this map calls for. There is a one inch bullseye up near the Port Huron/Sarnia, Ontario area, and a small finger of half-inch rains possible down by Benton Harbor.
COOL IT DOWN & CLEAR IT: Once we get through tomorrow and into say, Monday afternoon, with the low and associated cold front pulling away from us, we'll see winds turning more west-northwest, and some milder air working into the area. Starting Tuesday, daytime highs should top out at 81 or below! That will feel refreshing after upper 80's with heat index values well into the 90's!
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, some could be marginally severe. The next chance for rain comes in the form of some scattered showers and perhaps a roaming storm toward the weekend.
Here's the forecast for South Central Michigan:
Tonight - Clear skies early and seasonably mild. Clouds filter in late, a morning shower or storm could pop, with lows near 64.
Sunday - Mainly cloudy, some showers and storms in the morning, with perhaps a break and then a second round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. These could be marginally severe, main threats gusty wind, small hail, heavy downpours. High 83.
Sunday Night - Showers and storms ongoing around sunset, then they start to taper off. Slowly clearing, lows roll back to 62.
Monday - Some lingering clouds and still seasonably warm, high 84.
Tuesday - Sunny skies and cooler, high 79.
Wednesday - Clear and comfortable, high 81.
Thursday - Mainly sunny skies, a couple of passing clouds, high 80.
Friday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, continued mild. We can't rule out a PM shower or stray thunderstorm. High 78.
Saturday - Partly sunny, still the mention of a possible later day shower or isolated storm. High 80.
There's your forecast for the next week. I hope that you have a great one!
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