Another day of mainly sunny skies and cooler than normal conditions is on tap for south central Michigan. We stay dry today and into tomorrow, with some building clouds and some rain to start off the weekend. Let's have a look:
COOL CANADIAN AIR: We continue to be under the influence of cool Canadian air in the upper air pattern, with a trough over the eastern almost two thirds of the US. We don't expect that pattern to shift a whole lot in coming days either. We will warm back up some as we wind down July, but that looks more like a flattening out of the upper flow, which will naturally allow temperatures to rise a bit as the Westerlies do exactly what their name implies - blow from west to east across the US. Have a look at this surface temp map and you'll see the ridge/trough setup, with a twist - warmer, more humid air nosing into the Great Plains. That's why they are under a slight risk for severe weather today.
NOT A LOT OF RAIN: We'll see some rain this weekend in fits and starts, and not a whole lot more than that for the next few days. An occasional summer shower or pop-up storm is possible, but nothing really organized that I can see for the next several days. Forecast model solutions are showing a low tracking through the Upper Peninsula and dragging a surface boundary along with him as it tracks east. That boundary is what will bring us our weekend rain this trip. Now the one change from last night in my "Looking Ahead" graphic, model solutions now include some low end rain chances for basically the next week starting tomorrow afternoon. Now I have said numerous times that models don't handle the fine details to predict small-scale rain very well, so I am leaning toward a bit drier look that what the GFS says. Here's what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking for the next several days regarding rain:
No more that three-quarters of an inch for us through the end of July, so picnic and barbeque to your heart's content! If you do it this weekend, plan on using your umbrella for a bit tomorrow and perhaps early Saturday.
NO ROUGH STUFF: The Storm Prediction Center does not have us in any sort of enhanced severe risk area for the next three days. In fact - the US as a whole looks pretty calm after we get through today, with the slight risk area that starts up by Green Bay, WI, goes southwest into places like Lincoln and Omaha, NE, then cuts almost due south into Amarillo, TX and Fort Sill, OK. The areas inside the risk bubble could see some wind and hail as the primary modes of severe weather, with possibly a bit of flash flooding as well.
I will forego showing you Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, because you won't see anything but ground clutter around the dish. The visible satellite is clear for us as well, just some clouds up in Wisconsin, those are just ahead of the disturbance that will bring us the rain and such in the next 36 hours or so.
Here's the forecast:
Today, mainly sunny with a few PM clouds, seasonably mild, high 77. Wind SE calm to 5 MPH.
Tonight, starry skies, another wonderful night of sleeping weather, not as chilly as the last couple of nights, lows near 54, wind turning S 3-7 MPH.
Friday, becoming cloudy, some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, high 80. Wind SW 4-9 MPH.
Friday night, showers continuing in scattered fashion, cool again, low 54. Wind NW 4-7 MPH.
Saturday, some stray showers and thunderstorms still in the area through midday, then cloudy - unseasonably cool again, high only 73.
Sunday, mixed sunshine, a couple of spots could see a hit & run shower, continued cool - high 73.
Monday, mainly cloudy with some peeks of sunshine, we can't rule out an isolated shower, high 76.
Tuesday, more mixed sunshine, warmer, high 80.
Wednesday, partly sunny, seasonable. High 84.
There's a look at your forecast for the next several days, have a good one! Blessings!
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