A bit of downtime while I am on lunch from the straight job. Figured I would have a peek and see what is unfolding for the next several hours, and into the new week as we kick off February.
I AM BUMPING THE SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY: After looking at the forecast data a bit more closely, I'm seeing trends that indicate to me that about 7" of snow is about right, instead of the six that I stated in the morning post. My concern is that some intense shots of snow will migrate in from the southwest. Remember, there's a Winter Storm Warning for Branch County until 10 PM tonight. Here's a look at the current Tru-Track Doppler Radar image:
This is the radar for the area as of 2:30 PM. You can see that we have all modes of precipitation on the board, also you see the heavy snow band stretching from Jackson back through Coldwater and into Indiana. It seems to me like we'll get a few more bursts along that line.
WHAT ABOUT NEXT WEEK: I'll briefly touch on it, as I stated before we're still a ways out. Here's what I do know. I have checked three computer models, and I am trying to get back to my links for a fourth. Here's the two major scenarios I see. I'll probably map these for you later so you have a picture of what I'm describing. After the Canadian high pressure gets pushed out of here around mid-week (good model agreement on this, so we'll line up and run that)...
1) A low pressure center comes northeast from the ArkLaMiss (where Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee come together), but misses us far enough south that we pick up just a few inches of snow, maybe a 3-5" affair by say, Thursday.
2) A low that starts way down in south Texas comes up over the ArkLaMiss and through southern Indiana, but this one phases with and ultimately snaps up a smaller low that was trailing it, placed over the OK/TX border. This guy gets bigger and deeper, with access to moist air off the Gulf and perhaps some lingering around in the Tennessee/Kentucky area, brings some major snow to the area, including southern Michigan. That solution was the one being bandied about on social media. Too early to call it. The computers are generating another model run right now, so we'll probably have a few more puzzle pieces to work with then.
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS NOW: I'm leaving everything else as is for now.
Have a good rest of your afternoon and be careful if you must travel!
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