So Much For Thawing Out...

Good Afternoon!

Now that I have gotten through church, an afternoon grocery hunt, and other things, it's time for me to take a look at some fresh data.  It's been a beautiful sunny day in south central Michigan, and in the other parts of Michigan, some clouds, especially north.  Let’s take a deeper dive and see what we have in store:

A QUIETER PATTERN: We have northwesterly flow coming in from Canada with a polar high set to occupy these parts for the middle and tail end of the week.  The question I had earlier this morning when I looked briefly at data, was how much moisture would the couple of disturbances be able to tap as they move this way?  The answer to that question appears to be not much.  So systems that initially could bring some snow to Michigan look like they just get sucked dry between the Dakotas and here.  I’ll have to keep the mention of a few flurries or perhaps some lake effect snow in the forecast, but at the moment I don’t see anything that would cause any major headaches.

MORE FRIGID TEMPERATURES:  Here’s a look at the NAM computer model temperature forecast at 7 AM on Wednesday morning. 

You can see all of the purplish-pink shading, which corresponds to readings in the -5 to 15 degree range.  Factor in a little wind and we’re talking about some serious cold.  We haven’t seen readings like this in a few days.  In fact, the latest model runs have trended almost 10 degrees cooler!  Average high in this part of the world is around 38 degrees, and the warmest reading that I’m seeing in guidance right now is 25 next Saturday.

DOWN THE LINE A BIT: There’s not a whole lot of change forthcoming, if you believe the computer models.  We see cold Canadian high pressure sit over this part of the world, with some upper waves and small disturbances rotating through.  I’m not very enthusiastic about any widespread accumulating snow of any significance outside of some lake effect that might accumulate in the snow box.  The look is just too dry right now.  Here’s what the Weather Prediction Center says about the next five days:

As you can see, about two-tenths of an inch in the five days, confined to the downwind side of the lake, coming out to the 131 corridor, maybe as far east as I-69.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Have a wonderful evening!  Blessings!