Mild A While Longer...

Good Evening!

Some fog and mild, damp conditions in the area at this hour.  It still doesn't feel like December.  This is weather that is typical of an early Spring evening, instead of about 3 weeks until Christmas.  Take a look at these unseasonably mild current surface temperature readings around the nation at this hour!

Unfortunately the reality check is on the way, the bottom falls out of everything and colder, seasonable air returns Tuesday.  Let me pop the hood and show you what's running...

SUMMARY:  Showers and gray skies over the last 24 hours in the area, and with all of the rain falling and settling inside this moist air mass, without much wind to mix up things, we pick up some evening fog.  Definitely have some of that in the area right now, fortunately it's not bad at this point, but as the night wears on, you can expect visibilities to come down.  More clouds and mild temperatures tomorrow, with upper ridging holding on into early Tuesday.   Expect a few spring-like 60 degree readings in the area, especially in the south zone.  My friends in the north zone, a couple of 60's are possible for you all too, but I'm thinking high 50's will be more the tune for your part of the world.  As we move through Tuesday, a cold front comes down the pike, bringing a return to northwesterly flow and temperatures twenty or so degrees cooler on the back side of the front. Tuesday, readings should pull back 10-15 degrees to settle around the 50 mark, then we shave the other five to ten off the temperatures for Wednesday, staying in the upper 30's to low or mid 40's for the balance of the week.

PRECIPITATION:  The bad news, yes, we'll have some, especially on Tuesday.  The good news, we're still in the 50's at that point, so it will be rain.  Really, anytime between now and weather-maker's arrival Tuesday, don't be surprised to see an isolated sprinkle or shower.  This unseasonably mild air has plenty of moisture in it, so under the cloudy skies, it doesn't take much to see a shower or two.  As the cold front approaches around midday Tuesday, if you haven't gotten some rain by then, you will.  You won't see a ton of rain as the front passes, but scattered to numerous showers should be expected on Tuesday for most places in the blog area.  This should be a linear deal connected with the frontal movement through the area.  Take a look at this map from the National Weather Service:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Their five day forecast suggests a quarter-inch to a half inch of rain for the area, and that looks to be in the ballpark.  I don't see where the forecast models are running wild with their predictions as they sometimes can, and we shouldn't be in a situation where this front will stall out because the low pressure center dragging it slows and stops near or over us.  As a footnote, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a general chance of thunderstorms into their forecast for all of lower Michigan on Tuesday.  Nothing severe mind you, but a chance.  I mention it here just so you know it's a possibility. At this point, I don't think we get those, but this could change by tomorrow night.

Quite mild in Jackson with some fog and haze at this hour, and here's what the rest of the area temperatures look like as I write this:

Time for the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Hanover-Horton:

Tonight, mainly clear skies with some fog, becoming dense in some areas, lows near 45.  Some spots have an outside chance at a sprinkle.  Wind SW 3-6 MPH.

Monday, cloudy skies, unseasonably mild, some isolated or widely scattered showers late in the day, high 62.  Wind S 7-14 MPH.

Monday night, scattered to numerous showers developing, perhaps a lonely thunderstorm in a spot or two, temperatures don't move much, lows only around 53, winds turn westerly 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, showers start to taper off under clearing skies, not as warm, highs hold fairly steady around 55, winds turn NW 7-14 MPH.

Tuesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, much cooler as the cold front leaves us to the east, lows roll all the way back to 33, winds NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sun, highs struggle to reach 41.

Thursday, continued partly sunny, a touch warmer, high 44.

Friday, some mixed sunshine, perhaps the outside chance of a rain shower, high 45.

Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy skies, chance of a few scattered showers, high 46.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.