Hot And Humid, Midweek Relief?

Good Morning!

Hot, muggy summer weather has returned to South Central Michigan, but this time, we may actually see a little bit of badly needed rain in a couple of days.  The heat dome is back on the block, with a trough way out west, Pacific Northwest to be exact, and just a bit of a shortwave trough in New England.  Underneath all that, wet in the Pacific Northwest, somewhat wet in New England and up into Canada, and still dry and humid here, except for the occasional hit and run afternoon or evening thunderstorm.  Let's look and see what's under the hood...


TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures stay in the 86-93 range for the next few days, but add dewpoints near or above 70 into the mix, and you get a sticky heat index in the mid to upper 90's, perhaps even triple digits.  The damp and muggy conditions will continue into midweek, when some shower activity moves through triggered by a low that should track across the Upper Peninsula and the top edge of the mitten.  If it plays out as advertised, we'll see daytime highs briefly retreat into the lower 80's for a few days, then head right back up toward 90 or better early next week.  More on that below.  Aside from that, it's your typical hot and damp mid-summer pattern.  It reminds me of the dog days of August, even though we're still a couple of weeks away from August 1st.


RAIN:  Depressing as it is, still not much in sight.  The lawn browning continues.  The National Weather Service (NWS) only expects a quarter inch tops in this part of the world, and I buy that based on the conditions and forecast data.  Rain chances do go up midweek, but forecast modeling indicates a lot of places will need to keep the sprinklers and irrigation going for the foreseeable future, as we are so far into a drought regime that even sustained rain, while beneficial, won't necessarily reverse the damage that's already been done.  


You should understand that this map shows more of an average that any one place can expect to see, and rainfall is seldom uniform, even less so in the summer when pop-up thunderstorms can fire almost anywhere due to daytime heating of marginally unstable air.  Put simply, the NWS says that this area is two and-a-half inches below normal for precipitation since June 1st, with only .30 inches of rain recorded in Jackson!  Here's a look at that NWS five day rain forecast...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Any rain that we do get will be the garden-variety hit and run thunderstorm type.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center suggests a pretty quiet three day stretch for us here in Michigan.  Nothing but "general" risk, with a 5% chance over the Upper Peninsula and extreme top of the mitten today, and a 5% chance that splits the blog area pretty much in half tomorrow.  Here's the Day 2 map from the SPC...

Day 2 SPC Forecast Map 

As you can see for tomorrow for the blog, regarding storm chances, North zone in, South zone out.


We did have some pretty moist air around this morning that caused some fog to form around the area, as a result, Grand Rapids NEXRAD has a lot more false return on it than the usual ground clutter around the radar itself.  Just a couple of clouds in the northern half of the mitten on the visible satellite image, clear to the south...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Michigan Center and Parma:


Today, mainly sunny skies with some passing clouds, hot and muggy, high temperature 93, dewpoints around 70 will yield heat index values in the mid 90's.  Winds WSW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, some scattered cloudiness around, warm and humid, nighttime lows only roll back to 71, winds WSW 3-8 MPH.


Tomorrow, a mix of clouds and sunshine with some increase in cloudiness as the day wears on, continued hot and humid with a chance at an isolated afternoon shower or roaming thunderstorm, high 91, winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tomorrow night, mostly cloudy skies, with maybe a peek at a star or two early, a chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight, nighttime lows down to 70.  Winds turn from west to northeast 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mainly cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms that tapers off in the afternoon, high 88.


Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, not as warm, a chance of widely scattered showers or a hit and run thunderstorm, high 84.


Friday, sunny skies, cooler, less humid, high 82.


Saturday, another day of clear skies and lower humidity, high 82.


There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Monday!