A Bit More Snow For You...

Good Afternoon!

OK, we can taker a deep breath.  The system that dropped the ice and such that caused all the mayhem yesterday and prompted various winter weather warnings - GONE.  That low pressure center is off to the northeast of the state now.  Just some high clouds in the area right now.  Let's dive into it.

MAYBE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION:  Over by the lake in the snow box, we may see some lingering precipitation, but here in South Central Michigan, it'll be a bit warm for that.  Most reporting stations checking on with readings in the mid to upper 30's.  Muskegon is the warm spot along the lake, with 41 being reported, and similar readings can be had at the opposite end of the state, south of Detroit in the Downriver area.  Motown is 41, so is Monroe.

ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP:  We'll see some late morning or early afternoon snow tomorrow in Michigan.  It won't be caused by any bona fide low pressure system though.  What I'm seeing is just an upper-level wave that right now is way down on the New Mexico/Mexico border.  It's energy that is coming around the base of the trough that has the western half of the US in frigid temperatures.  Look at this:

This is the NAM model's concept of what's going on at 18,000 feet up, the forecast is valid at 2 PM EST.  There's a trough over the western US, and the energy associated with it is in the base of it as I said above.

Here's a look at what's going on now.  Based on this, you can expect some flurries or light snow today, but then in the next 24 hours that changes...

This map shows what we expect to be happening at 2 PM tomorrow.  Basically that trough has flattened out west, and the energy that was in the desert is now where we are.

As that energy gets here in a hurry (it's a long way from New Mexico to Michigan!), you can expect snow to start falling sometime mid-morning tomorrow and persist through the afternoon.  I still don't expect this to be any huge deal, because the only forcing involved is whatever this impulse brings with it.  Really we're looking at the winds picking up from the west-southwest, so a lot of it will be tied to the lake effect.


WHAT ABOUT TEMPERATURES?:  Readings in the area usually run right around 31 degrees.  We'll be above that today and tomorrow, cool into the mid to upper 20's for the rest of the week, but Sunday and Monday we'll be back into mild weather, as the GFS is suggesting 36 for SUnday and 41 for Monday.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Two dominant themes in play weather-wise for us here in Michigan.  Lake Effect and Clippers.  Upper air patterns look to turn northwesterly or zonal.  Zonal means a straight shot from west to east.  Both of these will cause winds to blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan, so expect some possible snow in the snow box, and the lake effect can sometimes hold together as far inland as 127.  The upper air patterns look to be more northwesterly in nature, which will bring quick moving lows and upper waves over us - the Alberta Clippers.  They cool things just a bit, snow on you and leave an inch or two, then keep on moving.  I'm not seeing a system with any real teeth to it until the first week of January, but since that's still out in no-man's land, we'll check it again and let you know.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Cloudy, some lingering light snow or even snow-showers depending on location, high 37.

Tonight - Overcast, flurries or light snow with minimal accumulation possible.  Lows near 25.

Wednesday - Mainly cloudy, still a bit milder than normal, we can't rule out a stray snowflake.  High 38.

Thursday - Clouds and a bit cooler, some spots could see a few flurries or a dusting.  High 34.

Friday - Mostly gray, some spots may see a brief ray of sun or a flurry, cooler still.  High 28.

Saturday - Sunny and warmer, high 35.

Sunday - Mainly sunny with some passing PM clouds, high 37.

Monday - Increasing clouds, warmer still,  High 41.

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.