BUSTED!!!

Good Morning!

I took a nasty bust!  While the snow event in and of itself is verifying as we speak - the timing was way off and the amounts are suspect.

Looking at the data right now, it seems that the low did what it looked like.  If you check my last post, you'll see that I said it looked like the low was maybe turning more due north, so a main track that was a bit more northeast as opposed to the east-northeast that we forecast yesterday.  That change messed up the snow total forecast.  We'll know by how much when the event is over later today.

Additionally, the low put the brakes on right as it got to the Mississippi river.  That blew the timing solution out the window that the models had more or less settled on.  The heavy stuff didn't really start until after 2 AM, and the more northerly track put us into heavy snow band territory.

I'm analyzing the data now to see when we'll be out of this mess and what will happen as we get the shovels and snow throwers out yet again...Here's the current radar picture...

More to come...