esday
Gray skies in around the area today as we start to see that significant snow maker tracking this way. Good news for us is, all indications are that it will slide south of us, so we dodge a bullet and take a sideswipe instead of a direct hit. Some questions yet as we head into the final pre-event stages, so let's get in and answer them.
SO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE SEE?: Let me show you this map, which has my thinking on t:he snowfall amounts:
I'd love to see that model forecast that was basically a wish cast, with something like 20" of snow for the area. That thing was an outlier from the beginning! Current model data is still holding to the idea that the low slides south of us, even though it appears to me that system may be turning more due north than we thought. I may have to bump the snowfall projections up accordingly.
WHEN DOES IT START?: Best estimates now have everything starting between 5 and 8 PM. As you go north you'll want to add maybe an hour per county north, so up around I-96 it could start as late as 10 PM.
WHO GETS HIT HARDEST?: As a follow-on from the snow map, you need to know that the following counties have weather alerts in play:
WINTER STORM WARNING: Branch, Hillsdale - Until 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston, Shiawassee, Calhoun, Jackson, Eaton, Ingham, Clinton - Until 12 Noon Tuesday.
Here's the forecast:
This Afternoon - Cloudy, snow starts to develop from south to north around 5 PM or later. Temperatures around 22, wind swinging all the way from S to NW as the low works in, increasing to 10-20 MPH.
Tonight - snow intensifies as the night progresses, heaviest amounts after midnight. Lows near 16, wind NW 10-20 MPH some gusts to 30 MPH possible.
Wednesday - AM snow, tapering off after lunch. Highs near 26, wind turning from NW to WSW 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday Night - Snow should be pretty well done by sunset, clearing and colder, lows near 10. Wind chills as low as -5.
There's a look at the forecast, more to come later...
No comments:
Post a Comment