With a chance to sit down and look at some fresh data, some changes are in order regarding the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
First, we need to adjust the amount of snow we can expect. Most places in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone should only see around 2" on the high end. Branch and Hillsdale counties might see just a touch more, due to their proximity to Lake Michigan and the storm system's direction of travel.
Next, we need to move the time of changeover back some. Forecast models showed us having changed over by now, but it sure looks to me like we'll stay firmly in the warm sector of the storm system, so we will hold on to our rain longer. I don't think we'll start seeing any real changeover until around midnight in this part of the state, as temperatures both at the surface and a little ways aloft should be well above freezing.
Finally, winds will turn northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH as the evening wears on. In taking a look at the surface data, you can really see where the break point between rain and snow is, as we are still well into the 40's at this hour, with points northwest of us and across the lake 10 to 15 degrees cooler!
Take a look at this graphic from the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids. It shows the revised forecast snow amounts as the low and associated system track across the state. Notice how things taper off as you get away from the lake shore and head southeast.
We really don't get everything out of here and clear until late Friday night and the predawn hours of Saturday morning. Here's my forecast for tonight and tomorrow...
Complete six day forecast on the way! Have a great one!
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