Stormy Weather, Then Cooling Off...

Good Morning!

We are into Meteorological Fall now, and I am more than happy to leave the drought-ridden, scorching summer behind.  A change is in the air as you get to the weekend, and things could get a little bumpy today into tomorrow.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  If you think that it's too warm and muggy for you right now, then just hold out long enough to get into this evening and tonight and let the rains begin to fall, then see what you get the next few days.  Temperatures will drop 10-15 degrees over the next several days, rolling back into the 70's, and dewpoints will come down.  After we bottom out at 70 this weekend, readings have to work to get back to 75 or better for the next several days.  It will definitely feel like early fall, and I am sure you'll enjoy the refreshing conditions after this long hot summer!

RAIN:  It's an even wetter look to the five day rain forecast from the National Weather Service than we had yesterday.  We'll have a good chance at picking up some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and some of those could be severe (more on that below).  Take a look at the five day rain total map from the NWS:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

We are coming in at just under two inches, and the forecast has a two and a half inch bullseye just over the border in Toledo.  Definitely a wet start to meteorological fall!

SEVERE WEATHER:  The risk area for severe weather has morphed again from prior forecasts and now covers the entire Lower Peninsula.  Showers and storms moving into Iowa and Northern Illinois should die off as the morning progresses, but the Storm Prediction Center says conditions should be ripe for afternoon storms to fire, and these could become an organized mob before possibly developing into a linear system with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats.  A surface cold front and a trough aloft digging deep into the Ohio valley from Canada look like they may link up and create a little bit of mayhem as the atmosphere heats during the course of the day.  Here's a look at the forecast maps from the SPC, valid at 8AM EDT:

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook

SPC Day 1 Hail Outlook

You can see that severe probabilities are even higher as you move southwest of Michigan, so we'll have to keep an eye out and see what develops as we get into the afternoon warming.

There's a couple of lonely showers on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD at this hour, northwest of us, and some more organized activity down through Chicago and into northern Indiana...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD

The visible satellite image shows plenty of scattered clouds, and if you look closely you can see some storms embedded in them:

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today, periods of clouds and sunshine to start, then increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later, some of those could be severe, high 87, winds SW 3-9 MPH.

Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms before midnight, some could be severe, lows only drop to 66, winds start turning from SW to NE 3-7 MPH.

Thursday, possibly a straggling shower early, then a mix of clouds and sunshine, not as warm, high 82, winds NW 5-10 MPH, turning more north as the day progresses.

Thursday night, increasing clouds, a scattered shower or roaming thunderstorm can't be ruled out, cooler, lows near 59, winds N 3-8 MPH.

Friday, mainly clear to start, clouds start thickening later, still the chance of an isolated evening shower, high 77.

Saturday, slowly clearing skies, much cooler, high 70.

Sunday, mostly sunny, fall-like and seasonably cool, high 70.

Monday, clear skies, a bit warmer, high 73.

Tuesday, continued sunny and mild, a bit warmer, high 75.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Hump Day Wednesday!  Blessings.