Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Lots Of Clouds - Cooling Off...

Good Morning!

A dreary wake-up and drive to work here in South Central Michigan with plenty of cloud cover in the area, and that lingers for a while before we get a brief peek at some sunshine. Here's the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite
Some widely scattered showers are possible during the day today, and then some BIG changes are in the cards for us as we roll into the weekend.  One deeper dive coming up....

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures stay mild and in fact almost summer-like, at lest for tomorrow anyway.  Upper 60's today and some 70's tomorrow.  After that though, a cold front comes through, and on the back side of that, we get some major cooling, as temperatures fall back into the high 40's in some areas with lows around freezing as we start the new week!  The temperature needle swings wildly as we move through the next several days, as the average temperature runs right around 63.  We'll be 10-15 degrees on either side of that as we progress.

RAIN:  There's rain in the forecast for sure, that's the clue that your cooler conditions are moving in.  If you take a look at the five day forecast from the National Weather Service, you'll see that they aren't thinking much rain for us:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map
This map says about a half-inch of precipitation for us through 8 AM Monday morning.  As it stands right now I can buy that, but don't be surprised to see that bump up over the next day or two as we get closer to the weekend.  Computer forecast models, just like people, can refine their guesses and get more accurate with time as we move closer to a specific point and get more information.

Just to put a bug in your ear, forecast models are hinting at a possibility of a snow flurry late this weekend or into the start of the new workweek.  I will have to dig into that a bit more and see if there's anything to it.  If there is, it'll definitely come as a shot of cold air sent with love from Canada makes it's way into the US, starting in the Dakotas and Minnesota, then spreading south and east as an upper trough starts shoveling it's way into the US.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much in the way of severe activity to talk about, no organized severe storms are expected anywhere in the lower 48 for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, there is a general risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms tomorrow for Michigan.

All reporting stations south of I-96 at this hour showing temperatures in the mid to upper 50's with cloudy skies.  Not much to see on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD - looks like some fog that is being seen on radar but is dissipating, and perhaps a couple of very light showers here and there.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Summit Township:

Today, cloudy skies, seasonably mild, perhaps a stray shower or two, high 67, winds become SSW 7-13 MPH.

Tonight, continued cloudy, the chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower still there, lows roll back only to about 51, winds SSW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, mostly cloudy skies, breezy, chance of a scattered shower or perhaps even a roaming thunderstorm early then a bit of clearing, unseasonably mild, high 76, winds SW 6-12 MPH.

Thursday night, more clouds than stars, we still keep the possibility of an isolated shower or two on the table, cooler, as lows roll back to 48, winds become WSW increasing to 7-15 MPH.

Friday, partly cloudy, significantly cooler on the back of the frontal boundary, chance of an isolated or scattered shower in spots, highs only make it to 57.

Saturday, partly cloudy skies, chance of a few hit and miss showers, cooler still, high 54.

Sunday, partly sunny skies clearing as the day moves forward, cool, high 52.

Monday, sunny, seasonably cool, high 56.

Tuesday, sunny skies and warmer, high 63.

There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a GREAT hump day!  Blessings.

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