Monday, October 1, 2012

A Bit Of Evening Detail...

Hello Again!

With the chance to look at a little bit of weather data, I figured why not add a bit to the blog.  We have some cloud cover over the area right now, though it is broken, allowing for some peeks of sunshine yet this afternoon.  Here's the visible satellite image, now that the issues that caused the last two images to be corrupt have been cleared...

Visible Satellite Image
The NAM computer forecast model is suggesting some rain as early as later this evening, and the GFS computer model says, no, nothing until Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Yet a third model says just a little bit of rain here and there starting tomorrow morning.  You have to love it when the forecast models are having an argument about precipitation!

I'm thinking there's an outside chance of a stray shower some time after midnight tonight, and that will primarily stay in the south zone of the blog, in areas such as Hillsdale, Jonesville, and Adrian.  If any rain does show, it will taper off by mid-morning, and then the day should be dry, until we get another system in here from a more westerly direction.  Look at the current observations around Michigan and Wisconsin:

Surface Observations - temperatures are red, dewpoint values are green.
You see everything is in the 60's with some scattered 70 or better readings as well.  Dewpoints are down into the 40's though - that's why I am skeptical about widespread rain so early this evening.  Not a whole lot of moisture in the air right now, and not much in the way of a lifting mechanism to throw the atmosphere into a fit and trigger rain showers.  Now when our next system get near us tomorrow afternoon and evening, that's when better rain chances and more coverage of precipitation should occur, though I don't foresee a washout by any stretch of the imagination.  It will still be hit or miss deal, with some decent spacing between showers.  Once we get the rain back in tomorrow evening, we'll keep a mention of it around for awhile, and limit the sunshine.

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