I have had a couple of people ask me why I do this blog, then they ask how do I do it. I figured this is a good a time as any to answer those questions.
First, I must issue a disclaimer, and say that I am NOT a trained meteorologist. I have no formal training at this point of any kind in forecasting, nor any advanced math, save what I can recall from my high school classes some 20+ years ago. In a critical situation where life or property are at stake, the National Weather Service is the way to go. I merely re-tweet, re-text, and re-Facebook things they put out, or things local credentialed mets and forecasters produce. This whole blog thing started as a way for me to indulge my writing passion, and match wits with the local meteorologists in my area about weather. It turned into something a little more than that after watching April 27, 2011 unfold. The 2011 Super Outbreak was something that I hope no one ever has to live through again, and I want to help make forecasting and warning better if I can. But when it does happen again, the key word is someone LIVING through it, and not losing their life.
The blog has helped me re-discover a love for weather and science stuff. At some point, I would not at all mind doing a "mid-season career change", and diving headfirst into weather and meteorology. Does this make me a poser or pretender? Perhaps to some. My intent though, is to match wits with the weather experts in my area and see if I can beat them now and again, or at least land in the ball park consistently. If I can have a finger or toe in helping someone plan their day or take the right action if the weather requires that, then that's enough for me.
Second, what I have learned thus far about this science has come from voracious reading of books, poring over on-line resources, and picking the brains of several practicing meteorologists and forecasters who have been kind enough to entertain my many questions through e-mail and social media. Just a few of them include Maurice Shamell, James Spann, Brad Panovich, Dave Freeman, Jim Geyer, Mark Meister, and several more whose names don't come to mind shooting from the hip. I say thanks to them all for helping me to fill in the many blank spots in my knowledge base, or pointing me toward tools to shore up my knowledge. My goal is to be accurate and at some point, as good as them - even if I have to do it the hard way.
Third, how do I do this? Disclaimer #2. I DO NOT just look at the National Weather Service finished forecast products and recycle it into my stuff. I examine observations and model data that is in the public domain from a myriad of sources, the NWS only being one of them. Now, some things from the NWS I do bring across intact - Storm Prediction Center severe outlooks and watches/warnings being the best example. The rest of it, I do my best to piece together a forecast as I envision professional meteorologists and forecasters do, then I write it. I purposely try to NOT look at the NWS or local media forecasts, so as not to be biased and let it mess up my forecast thinking. I'll check that day's forecast against mine after I post on the blog, but that's about it.
I try to at least have some quick look slides up daily, so you can just look and see what I expect for this part of the world for that day and be all set, and if you need to know the why behind it, then delve into the discussion. Now, between working my current job and caring for/trying to raise my 8 year-old daughter, sometimes things don't work out as planned, and I don't get to write. This week is a prime example of that, busy as I have been. I genuinely feel bad when I can't get more than just the slides up, or the few times where I haven't written anything.
Lastly, thanks to those of you that stop by and read what's here, or interact with me on social media. I am meeting people all the time, and I hope that maybe some friendships can come out of it. I appreciate the page views and conversation. Hopefully one day, someone else may be asking me the questions I am asking the working mets right now, and I ultimately can help people and weather co-exist better. Thanks for reading.
Have a great weekend!
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