Goodbye Mild, Welcome Back Fall...

Good Afternoon!

Strong ridging and a mild springlike air mass are in the area today, enjoy it because it won't be here tomorrow!  A reality check in the form of a 30+ degree temperature swing is cranking up to our west though!  Let's take a closer look and see what we have under the hood:

SUMMARY:  Unseasonably warm weather with readings well into the 60's has been the rule the last couple of days.  Strong southerly flow and ridging have persisted in this part of the world, with warmer temperatures as you go south.  My cousin in Texas posted the other day that she loves living there because of 80 degree readings in November, and I can't say as I blame her!  Temperatures here this afternoon are at or near 70!  Have a look around the area:

We keep the mild readings around until the pre-dawn hours of Monday, when the cold front starts to blow in and the temperatures nose-dive.  Good luck with any readings over 45 until after mid-week.  You'll see the 20-30 MPH south winds die off as the cold front approaches and winds start to swing around to the west-northwest.  Here's a look at what will happen, this is the NAM Computer Forecast Model at 4 AM EST:

You can see where I have marked up this image, showing about where the leading edge of the cold front will be.  The light blues and purples behind the front are 20's and 30's.

PRECIPITATION:  The incoming temperature change will bring us a chance at some precipitation the next couple of days, and snow is definitely in the mix.  We'll see rain starting about 1 AM tomorrow, some snow may mix into that later, then that eventually tapers off and leaves us cold.  Take a look at the precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The NWS is thinking that we'll see half to three-quarters of an inch of total precipitation in the area, that will be more rain than snow.  The good news is, basically no accumulation.  The warming of the ground with the late-season mild streak we have been enjoying will prevent anything from sticking for a little while yet.

SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe weather forecast for this part of the world, however, a "slight" risk of severe storms for the ArkLaTex through tomorrow.  Those storms will give those areas some damaging wind and hail.

Bright blue skies in the area for another few hours, then everything starts rolling in.  Here's the visible satellite with NEXRAD composite overlay on it, notice all the precipitation on the west side of Lake Michigan coming this way.

Visible Satellite with NEXRAD Composite Overlay

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Tonight, increasing clouds, rain developing after midnight then changing to snow later, diminishing winds and sharply colder.  Lows near 38, winds S 15-25 MPH slowly turn SW and diminish to 7-13 MPH.

Monday, cloudy, rain with a little snow mixed in, high only 42, winds become WNW 6-12 MPH.

Monday night, skies slowly clearing, colder air tightens it's grip, lows dip all the way to 28, winds NW 5-10 MPH bring wind chills into the lower 20's.

Tuesday, partly sunny skies and cold, high only 38, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, some clouds, but mainly sunny and chilly, high 40.

Thursday, mostly sunny, a bit milder, high 45.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a bit milder still, high 47.

Saturday, more mixed sunshine, perhaps the chance of a stray shower during the day, high 48.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.