Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan. We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling. Here's the radar:
Let's take a closer at it for you.
TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST: We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state. While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage. Here's a look at today's risk map:
Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.
CONTINUED STEAMY: Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating. These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period. This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.
LOOKING AHEAD: No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's. I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday. I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today! That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm. High 86. Wind SW 3-6 MPH.
Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.
Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.
Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.
Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.
I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
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