Labor Day Look, And I BUSTED!!!

Good Morning!

MIKE, YOU WERE WRONG.  WHAT HAPPENED?:  In a nutshell, the strong and marginally severe showers and thunderstorms that traveled across the northern half of the Lower Peninsula yesterday morning acted like a big blender and mixed the air out so thoroughly, that even with daytime heating yesterday, it wouldn't destabilize enough a second time to kick off fresh showers and storms in the same area.  Therefore, the path of least resistance, and juicier air for storms to munch on, was basically along and south of a line from basically Flint to Ludington.  When the air got warm enough to pop through what capping their was earlier in the day, off to the races we went.

I did see that the Storm Prediction Center added a "marginal" risk for severe weather later on in the day, just before lunchtime, but I couldn't communicate that to you guys because I was working and didn't have access to a computer that would allow me to post.  I'll check and see if there are any workarounds for that.  Sorry guys.  I'll work harder for you next trip.  Speaking of...

SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY:  We note this morning that the "marginal" risk area is gone with the new 8 AM outlook from SPC.  Just general thunderstorms expected in the area at this point, as there's not any really organized forcing for ascent in Michigan.  That being said, I still think that there is enough around for some scattered PM showers and a pop-up storm or two.  Less organization than yesterday, and less likelihood of severe.  Some high winds, pushing severe limits are possible if a storm can pop up and get rolling.  Days 2 and 3 of the severe outlook keep everything confined to the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

BIG PICTURE:  We'll keep the summer-like stuff around for awhile yet, Labor Day looks to be seasonably warm.  Gentle ridging is in place over most of the US and will remain in place through the holiday weekend.  All of the disturbances and such that cause your rain are being routed north, currently, though the jet stream is close enough that a subtle shift south does put Michigan in play for weather as one of those approaches.  We also note that there is some heavier rain activity expected south and west of Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND:  Expect warm to very warm conditions, with the chance of an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow.  Those rain chances diminish as we get toward Sunday.  That will be the warmest day of the holiday weekend, with readings in the upper 80's and plenty of sunshine.  Labor I expect to be a few degrees cooler, and if you have any barbecues or anything like that planned out, be prepared to dodge a shower or two in the afternoon and expect increasing clouds as the day wears on.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Wednesday, a weak upper disturbance works through, touching off some showers and perhaps the odd thunderstorm.  After that, the area should be relatively rain-free until Sunday the 13th, with temperatures moderating nicely.  From Wednesday on, expect readings to stay in the 70's, with the chance of not getting out of the 60's starting from the 13th.

Here's the forecast:

Today - A mix of clouds and sunshine with just the mention of a stray PM shower or storm, high 84.

Tonight - Variable clouds, we leave in that mention of a shower or storm early, then drying out, lows roll back to near 63.

Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, some spots may see a brief PM shower, warmer, high 87.

Saturday Night - More stars than clouds, a touch warmer than the previous night, lows near 67.

Sunday - Mainly sunny with just a passing cloud, warmer still, high 90.

Labor Day - Blended sunshine, clouds thicken a bit during the afternoon, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or lonely storm, cooler, high 84.

Tuesday - Becoming mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms expected, high 82.  Any one spot sees about a 4 in 10 crack at rain.

Wednesday - Continued mainly cloudy, perhaps few peeks of sunshine, a 50/50 chance of showers and a storm or two, cooler.  High 74.

Thursday - Some clearing, cooler.  High 71.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.