Stormy Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

Warming up in the area, and that will increase the likelihood of showers and storms, some of those could get rowdy.  Let's have a look...

MARGINAL RISK:  A good chunk of lower Michigan is under a "marginal" risk for sever weather this afternoon and evening according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Let's have a look at that map.

As you can see, it's really only the northwestern part of the mitten that gets away from any severe.  Looking at the radar composite, a big slow-moving line of rowdy thunderstorms is marching right now, and I expect them to start impacting South Central Michigan later on this afternoon and into the evening.  Here's what's on the board at the current time...

Now it's important to note that these storms are typical summer pre-afternoon storms inasmuch as they are actually out ahead of the main frontal boundary.  Any time during the year, but especially in the warm season, you typically, but not always, get some weather out ahead of a front rolling through,  These storms will have gusty winds and they can have marginally severe hail as well.  We need to see how the air looks in about 2 hours to see how things will likely lay out for the next 12.  Let's look at a few things and I'll give you my take on it.

INGREDIENTS ARE HERE:  I don't want to make this overly complex, but this map will help me tell you what's cooking,  Don't worry about the station plots (those are all the numbers).  Just look for the high and lows, the frontal locations, and note the green shading.

The H and L's and the frontal symbols are pretty straightforward, you see those on TV and on the web all the time.  The green shading correlates with dew point values of 65 or better.  You see where the fronts are marked off at right now.  I expect that cold front to sag south as it comes east across the Great Lakes the next 12-18 hours.  As you get that system edging closer it will create instability, and we have more than enough moisture (green shading) in the area to touch off those showers and storms.  Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD picture.

Quiet with clouds thickening in South Central Michigan at the moment, but rest assured, our turn is coming for the storms.

TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN:  After the cold front works through this evening and into tonight, expect reading down into the 50's then climbing back into the 70's and an 80 or two in spots as well.  Average in the area this time of year is right around 75, and we stay within 3-4 degrees either side of that right through the forecast window.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Once we get through today and tomorrow, I expect it to be reasonably quiet, Wednesday evening may see a hit & run shower or a storm, then clearing and cooling down.  Friday afternoon, a bit of an upper wave works into the area, perhaps requiring you to reach for the umbrella for Friday Night Football depending on where your game is.  Readings may not get out of the 60's on Saturday!  If we look at the WPC 5 Day forecast, we see a decent amount of precipitation expected to fall in the area...

Here's the forecast:

This Afternoon - increasing clouds, developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe with hail and high winds.  High 84.

Tonight - Showers and storms early, then clearing and cool, lows near 54.

Wednesday - Cloudy with some PM showers possible, high 77.

Thursday - Partly to mainly sunny, high 78.

Friday - AM sun, PM clouds with some scattered showers or a storm, high 79.

Saturday - Partly sunny, cooler, high 68.

I hope you have a great day!