Possibly Stormy Sunday, Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

A potentially busy weather day expected across Michigan and the Great Lakes today.  Let's dive right in and have a look at it!

SOME SEVERE RISK:  If we take a look at the current Storm Prediction Center outlook for today, we note an "enhanced" risk for severe weather across basically all of lower Michigan.  Here's the map...

All of Michigan, both peninsulas are in the game for severe weather today.  Let's talk details.

STEAMY MORNING:  Readings already in the 70's over 60+ degree dew point values in the area, that's good for relative humidity readings of around 80% or better.  Here's a look at the current conditions around the area...

We'll get into the 80's today with heat index values easily into the low to mid 90's.  Don't be shocked to see some places post heat index values of 95-97 degrees!

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS:  This afternoon, we'll see showers and storms developing after 2 PM in an organized fashion, with some hit or miss storms before that.  This is a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast at 3 PM this afternoon...

As you can see, the major rains will be in the northern half of the state, with a semi-broken line of storms draping across Livingston, Jackson, and Branch counties.  Now the radar isn't going to look exactly like this in all likelihood, but just expect showers and storms in the area.  Some of the storms could be severe, and all modes of severe are possible up to and including a tornado.  I personally am leaning more toward a wind and small hail affair for our part of the state, with the truly rough stuff to the north.

I expect the threat of severe weather to diminish as nighttime approaches and the atmosphere cools off.

WILDCARDS:  A few showers and storms evident on radar well north of the area could leave some outflow boundaries that will serve as a focus point for new convection to develop.  I don't see that right now in South Central Michigan, just one big, homogeneous, steamy airmass.  If we do get storms setting up on outflow boundaries, then we'll have to watch where the boundaries are in relation to our area and how those are moving.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  This system rolls through and breaks a lot of the heat and humidity.  We'll settle into a refreshing, if cool, late summer pattern in the area, with readings in the 70's.  Next chance for widespread rain will be the latter half of the week.

Here's the forecast for Jackson & vicinity:

Today - AM sun, clouds thicken during the afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be severe.  High 88.  Heat index values will top out near 93.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms should diminish after midnight, much cooler, lows near 66.

Monday - Sunny and seasonable, high 83.

Monday Night - Mostly starry, unseasonably cool, lows roll back to near 54.

Tuesday - Clear skies, pleasant, cooler.  High 79.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds, a hit or miss PM shower or embedded storm, high only 73.

Thursday - Mainly cloudy, scattered showers, high 72.

Friday -  Partly sunny and a bit warmer, high 75.

Saturday - Sunny and splendid, high 76.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.