Cold & Snowy

Hello!

I have had the chance to look at some data and get an idea for what's going to unfold the next several days.   One minor correction to an earlier post, the Lake Effect Snow Advisory still stands for Calhoun County until 5 AM EST.  With that correction, let's pop the hood and take a closer look...

TEMPERATURES:  We will continue to see readings well below normal until the the start of the new week.  Currently conditions are bitter cold, with single digit readings headed down toward zero, and wind chills that could get down to 20 below.  A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for the entire blog until 1 PM tomorrow. Temperatures trend well below normal until the latter part of the week, when we break 20.  If forecast modeling is correct, we start the new calendar week on Sunday with the first above freezing readings in several days.

SNOW:  We keep snow in the forecast pretty much right through the weekend.  Forecast data suggests that we gradually diminish the chances of snow as we wind toward the weekend.  My concern is that same northwest and westerly wind blowing over warmer Lake Michigan waters, causing the lake effect snow to continue thru midweek.  Add to the mix what appears to be an upper impulse or two that should bring more substantial snow to the area starting Thursday afternoon.  I'll know more as the computers crunch more data tomorrow.  My take is that here in South Central Michigan, we pick up about an inch and-a-half more through 1 PM, some spots may squeeze out two inches, then chances of snow drop off fairly steadily.

LOOKING AHEAD:  As we get to the end of the work week, we see temperatures going up, and we also see an upper disturbance come through embedded in all this chilly air, that will bring us some snow Thursday evening into Friday.  I will have to revisit this a few times between now and then, but looking at tonight's data, I think we stay around the 2-3" mark total.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Concord:

Today, cloudy, continued bitterly cold.  High 10.  Winds WNW 7-12 MPH will keep wind chills down around -5.

Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, once again frigid, lows down to +2, wind chill readings could dip below -10 with NW winds 7-12 MPH.

Wednesday, slowly clearing skies, a touch warmer, daytime highs near 17, winds NW 3-7 MPH create wind chill indexes around +10.

Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 3-5 MPH.

Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun to start, clouds increase and snow develops late afternoon, high 17.

Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, 2-3" of new snow before it's done, high 22.

Saturday, more clouds than sunshine, perhaps a chance of some light snow, high 26.

Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, high 28.

There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.