Slowly Thawing...

Good Morning!

Clouds, cold, and occasional snow.  I could leave the forecast at that and be in the ballpark, but of course, we will give you more detail than that.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have running under there...

SUMMARY:  The arctic air will linger for the next few days here in South Central Michigan.  We won't see anywhere close to our average, which should be right around 30 degrees this time of the year.  Have a look at the current surface temperatures across the nation:

Surface Temperature Map

One good sign, that truly nasty cold air with the subzero readings is slowly being shoved back across the border into Canada.  That pattern continues, then accelerates on Sunday, as temperatures start moderating and we have a shot at 40 by midweek.  Upper air patterns change up, and we get more zonal west to east flow, instead of being in the ridge/trough setup we have now keeping us in the freezer, as well as allowing some snow to filter in.  More on that below.  Expect daytime highs in the 20's through Sunday, 30's early next week, then upper 30's or perhaps a couple of 40's by midweek.  Beats the tar out of the single digits and teens we have dealt with!

SNOW:  The whole thing will be a bit tricky to forecast the next few days, so here goes nothing.  Two things to keep a thought toward regarding snow.  First, we still have wind out of the west and northwest blowing over warmer water in Lake Michigan.  The lake effect snow that has been falling pretty consistently during the last 48 hours west of US 131 will continue, though I expect to see more breaks in it.  Upper air winds continue to favor a couple of those bands perhaps venturing a ways inland, bringing us a bit of light snow, along with a few flurries falling in their own right.  Unlike the last 48 hours, this stuff should be so light and powdery that I don't see much in the way of additional accumulation at all in this part of the world.  What I do see coming down the pike are a couple of upper air disturbances sliding off the backside of the ridge out west.  You may have heard them called "Alberta Clippers".  We'll see a couple of those, and they bring us a chance at some short duration snow events tonight into tomorrow, and again on Friday into Saturday.  Let's look at the National Weather Service forecast map:

National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation thru 7 AM Monday

Their map of precipitation for the next five days shows a bullseye of a half-inch of liquid up around Manistee and Traverse City.  That would mean roughly another 5 inches of snow over the next few days up there.  Down around Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Grand Haven, closer to three inches.  Here in south central Michigan, another inch or two at the most.

One other thing we'll need to think about is the possibility of some messy commutes next week as we warm up.  Snow melt will freeze at night, and temperatures running around the freezing mark or a touch warmer also bring us some possible freezing rain or sleet.

Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD other than that persistent lake-effect snow west of us...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity - Notice the banding associated with lake-effect snow over Grand Rapids, Grand Haven, and Muskegon.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Brooklyn:


Today, clouds and a bit of sunshine, not quite as cold, daytime highs near 16, winds become SW 5-10 MPH  and create wind chill indexes down near zero.

Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 4-8 MPH.

Thursday, a peek of sun to start, then clouds increase and a touch of snow may develop later in the day, high 17.  Wind SE 3-6 MPH keeps wind chill indexes around 10 degrees.

Thursday night, cloudy skies, not as cold, low near 9, wind S 4-8 MPH keeps wind chills close to zero.

Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, an inch or two of new snow before it's done, milder, high 22.

Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine early, then some clearing, warming a bit more, high 26.

Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, some light snow is possible, high 29.

Monday, overcast skies with a chance of some snow, perhaps an inch of accumulation total, warmer with a high of 33.

Tuesday, continued cloudy, warmer still, some light snow or a wintry mix cannot be ruled out, high 36.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.